From renewable energy to AI: 5 sectors that displayed economic growth amid geopolitical uncertainty

The IMF recently downgraded its 2026 growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.1%, which could even go down to 2.5 percent in 2026 in the case of a prolonged war. As per larger macroeconomic research conducted by the IMF, this impact of this reduced growth will most adversely impact low income and developing countries. 

Here’s a look at five industries that have posted a resilient economic performance amidst a darkening macro outlook for the world.

Wall Street Investment banks

For global investment banks, the return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office has ushered in an era of “profitable unpredictability.” Following Donald Trump’s appointment as the US president last year, global investors have been on a rollercoaster. 

As per reports published by NYT, a key characteristic of Donald Trump’s second term as president has been his “erratic decision-making process”. Where he issues an ultimatum one day and then changes it the next day. 

Al Jazzera, in a recent report, said investors have termed the post-Trump trading phenomenon as “TACO Trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out)—a market strategy predicated on the President’s tendency to issue high-stakes ultimatums on tariffs or military action, only to completely change his threat within 24 hours.

This era of what many are calling ‘Trumpian uncertainty’ has reportedly been a boon to investment banks in Wall Street which made millions in commissions and revenue from the surging volume of trade. 

“Clients want to reposition, so they trade more frequently which increases the profitability for trade intermediaries like banks,” Sean Dunlap, a director of equity research at Morningstar Research Services, told Al Jazzera.

As per reports, the result of this pattern was also visible in the first-quarter results for 2026.

Wall Street Q1 2026 – Profit Surge

Notably, researchers at Morningstar have also issued a warning that the current geopolitical volatility could also hurt banks if these tensions persist for too long. Dunlap told Al Jazeera that if the conflict persists for too long then it may prompt the investors to become increasingly cautious and less willing to borrow money to make trades.

2. The Rise of Prediction Markets

One of the more controversial “winners” of 2026 is the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket. The platform is reportedly earning upwards of $1 million a day in fees by allowing users to bet on the outcome of the Iran war.

According to DefiLlama, a website that provides data analysis for decentralised finance stations, the platform has netted over $21 million in fees in just over two weeks since revising its fee structure on March 30. 

While competitors like Kalshi and Robinhood are also seeing record engagement, Polymarket remains the leader in conflict-related betting, Al Jazeera reported.

3. Renewable energy transition: War as an accelerator

With a block of oil exports from the gulf largely stranded due to the US naval blockade and the previous closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the energy sector is facing a forced evolution.

As per analysts interviewed by Reuters, the war has rebranded Green Energy from a climate goal to a national security imperative. Investment is pouring into AI-managed smart grids and renewable infrastructure to decouple global economies from Gulf oil.

While oil trade is still benefiting players like Russia that are relatively less disrupted by the Middle East conflict, the war has introduced a major green energy based policy overhaul in oil dependent countries like Indonesia and Vietnam signalling rising demand for companies in the renewable energy sector.

The S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index, which tracks 100 companies that produce solar, wind, hydro, biomass and other renewable energy across emerging and developed markets, is up 70.92 percent year on year.

4 Defence x Intelligence: The war-sponsored partnership 

Another key macro trend that became more apparent after Trump’s return to presidency has been the global surge in defence and military budgets. As per researchers at IMF this surge in defence funding has been majorly prompted by major conflicts in Ukraine, Iran, Sudan, Gaza and Lebanon and a surge in global defence spending.

The conflict has reportedly also acted as a catalyst for ‘defence tech’ where Silicon valley and Israel-powered AI capabilities have begun interacting with traditional kinetic warfare. Unlike previous conflicts, 2026 is defined by the mass deployment of AI-driven autonomous systems.

AI is being utilised for drone swarms, precision targeting, and real-time decision-making on the battlefield.  Legacy defence giants like RTX, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman are reporting record order books as the US moves to replenish domestic stockpiles while supplying regional allies.

The defence industry has, in turn, seen major gains on the stock market. MSCI World IMI Aerospace and Defence Index which tracks aerospace and defence stocks across 23 global markets reported net returns of 36.38  percent year on year at the end of March.

The defence index outpaced the MSCI World Index, which tracks 1,300 large and mid-cap companies across the same 23 markets. The index, which gives a broader overview of global stock markets, reported net returns of 19.65 percent over the same period.

5 Artificial Intelligence

Despite the geopolitical tremors, the Artificial Intelligence sector remains insulated from the “Iran shock.” As per analysts interviewed by Al Jazzera, the UNCTAD projections placing the industry at a $4.8 trillion valuation by 2033 remain on track, primarily because AI is now seen as the “operating system” for both modern warfare and post-war economic efficiency.

One of the key parameters cited by multiple researchers as the reason behind their confidence in the upward growth of the AI sector is the rising sale of semiconductors in East Asia. Taiwan, the world’s foundry for semiconductors, recently ported record merchandise exports of $80.2 billion in March, a 61.8% jump driven largely by US demand for high-performance computing (HPC) chips, according to EIU analysis.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s top chipmaker better known by its acronym “TSMC,” on April 16 posted a net income of 572.8 billion New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) ($18.1bn) for the first three months of 2026, up 58 percent year on year in NTD.

The industry’s confidence is further underscored by a revival in the IPO market. Even as traditional manufacturing firms defer listings, AI pioneers OpenAI, SpaceX and Anthropic are moving towards their much-anticipated public debuts.