Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz edged higher in the week ended August 23, but cargo-bearing movements fell sharply, with cargo-carrying transits declining 27%, signalling that the headline recovery in shipping has yet to translate into a meaningful improvement in commercial flows through the key energy chokepoint.
Confirmed Hormuz crossings increased 2.5% week-on-week to 121, even as the composition of traffic deteriorated. The number of sanctioned vessel crossings rose sharply to 16 from nine, while vessels using Iran’s unilateral routing scheme accounted for 46.3% of all crossings, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.
“Traffic edged higher through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb last week, but headline volumes obscure contrasting risk signals,” Kpler said.
The decline in cargo-carrying transits is particularly significant as it contrasts with the rise in overall vessel crossings. Kpler said the latest data suggest that “commercial substance is weakening at Hormuz even as overall traffic holds up”, highlighting the gap between vessel movements and actual cargo transportation.
The latest weekly numbers follow continued volatility in Hormuz traffic. In the preceding week, confirmed crossings had fallen 19.5% to 95, with traffic dropping to just three vessels on August 16. At the time, no crossings were recorded through the standard Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme or Omani routes, while movements remained concentrated on Iran’s unilateral scheme and undetermined routes.
Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb, meanwhile, remained considerably stronger. Crossings increased 3.1% to 269 during August 17-23, more than double the 121 recorded at Hormuz. Dark transits declined, while sanctioned and shadow-fleet crossings were broadly unchanged at a combined 74 vessels.
The two chokepoints therefore presented sharply different signals during the week. While Bab el-Mandeb traffic remained resilient despite an active threat environment, Hormuz saw the share of sanctioned vessels and Iran-routed traffic rise even as cargo-carrying movements contracted.