Volume growth for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies could remain range-bound at 4-4.5% in CY2026, if the Iran war persists, Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar) said in its latest March 2026 FMCG Pulse released Wednesday. The projection acquires significance since there has been no end to the West Asia conflict so far, which began on February 28. Crude oil prices have topped $100 a barrel, remaining volatile over the last three months of the war.
Commodity Controls
On Wednesday, ITC and Hindustan Unilever (HUL) led a selloff in consumer staple stocks amid concerns that the Indonesian government’s move to impose controls on some commodity exports could increase the price of palm oil. The latter is used to make daily items such as soaps. HUL was down 1.06% on the BSE, closing at Rs 2,209.30 apiece. While ITC ended trade at Rs 307.55 apiece, down 0.89% versus the previous day’s close.
According to Worldpanel, the FMCG sector closed the March 2026 quarter with value growth of 13.1% and volume growth of 5.4%. Both urban and rural were performing at a level much higher in the March quarter than the same period last year.
The market research firm did note that CY26 volume growth could edge up towards 5%, if energy prices stabilise near baseline assumptions (of $80–85 per barrel of crude) and monsoon outcomes do not deteriorate further. In an adverse scenario, the agency says FMCG volume growth could soften to 3-4%, if higher energy costs coincide with food inflation.
“Growth remains uneven but broad-based, with value growth still ahead of volume, though the gap would narrow gradually,” the research agency said in its outlook for the year.
2026, it said, is shaping up to be a year of “disciplined growth”, not “exuberant expansion”.
“We continue to hope that the macro headwinds turn favourable and FMCG household consumption can hit that 5% growth mark, primarily led by household care and personal care,” it added.
Urban demand stood at 6.4% in the March quarter, sequentially higher than 4.8% in the December quarter, while rural demand continued to remain above 4% for the second quarter in a row.
“FMCG continued to post a healthy topline growth over FY26, with value growth comfortably ahead of volume growth. Value growth at 13.3% (in FY26) remains robust, while volume growth at 4.5% signals a steady, but measured, recovery in physical consumption,” it said.
Sector Outlook
The agency expects the personal care segment to likely grow at around 3–5% in volumes and household care to grow at 4–5% as the firm sees both washing liquids and fabric conditioners witnessing strong household expansion, while floor cleaners and toilet cleaners continue long-term growth despite minor hiccups.
Foods could see growth of 3–4% in 2026, the firm noted, adding that staples will provide volume growth, but the upside remains limited. Impulse food categories are likely to face reduced frequency rather than reduced relevance, it said. It also highlighted that intense summers and lower rainfall could provide another year of growth for bottled soft drinks.