India’s cement production is projected to rise more than four-fold from around 390 million tonnes currently to 1,743 million tonnes by 2047, while aluminium output is expected to increase from about 5 million tonnes to 18 million tonnes by 2040 and 37 million tonnes by 2070, according to a decarbonisation roadmap released by NITI Aayog.
The expansion trajectory comes as the industrial sector already accounts for about 24 per cent of India’s total greenhouse gas emissions, with cement, aluminium and MSMEs together contributing roughly 12–13 per cent, the report titled Roadmap for Decarbonisation of Aluminium, Cement and MSME Sectors noted.
According to NITI Aayog, greenhouse gas emissions from the cement sector alone, currently estimated at about 246 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, could rise to 945 million tonnes by 2047 and further to 1,323 million tonnes by 2070 if existing production pathways continue.
Cement: emissions linked to process and fuel use
The report estimates that India’s cement emission intensity stands at around 0.63 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of cement. Of this, calcination of carbonates contributes 57 per cent, fuel combustion accounts for 32 per cent, and electricity consumption contributes the remaining 11 per cent.
“Cement sector emissions are primarily process-driven and energy-intensive,” the roadmap states, adding that output growth will significantly influence future emissions unless mitigation measures are adopted.
NITI Aayog has identified three priority interventions for the cement sector: increasing the use of refuse-derived fuel from municipal solid waste, increasing the use of clinker substitutes, and deploying carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS).
The roadmap proposes increasing the thermal substitution rate using municipal solid waste-based fuels to 20 per cent by 2040, subject to feasibility. It also calls for revisions to cement performance standards, mapping of clinker substitute resources, and the launch of a National CCUS Mission for the cement sector, with proposed capture and utilisation capacity of 2,000 tonnes per day each.
Aluminium: power source dominates emissions
India currently accounts for about 6 per cent of global primary aluminium production and exports between 40 and 50 per cent of its output. Emissions from the aluminium sector are estimated at around 83 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, or about 3 per cent of national emissions, and are projected to rise to 376 million tonnes by 2070.
The emission intensity of aluminium production in India is estimated at around 20 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of aluminium, higher than the global average of approximately 15 tonnes.
According to the report, electricity accounts for over 75 per cent of emissions in aluminium manufacturing. The sector currently has around 9.4 GW of captive coal-based power capacity, which significantly influences its emissions profile.
The roadmap outlines phased decarbonisation pathways for aluminium smelting. In the short term, it recommends renewable energy-based round-the-clock power and grid supply. In the medium term, nuclear power — including small modular reactors, group captive nuclear models and open access to nuclear power — has been identified as a potential option. In the long term, coal-based captive power plants integrated with CCUS are proposed.
MSMEs: scale, dispersion and emissions
The MSME sector comprises around 69 million enterprises and contributes about 30 per cent of India’s gross value added and nearly 46 per cent of total exports. Emissions from the sector are estimated at about 135 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, accounting for roughly 3–4 per cent of India’s total greenhouse gas emissions.
NITI Aayog estimates that emission reduction potential in MSMEs could range between 55 and 62 per cent by 2030 through a combination of energy efficiency improvements, green electricity adoption and fuel switching.
Proposed measures include viability gap funding for energy-efficient technologies, capital subsidies for rooftop solar adoption by micro enterprises, and expansion of city gas distribution networks to MSME clusters.
The report notes that MSME decarbonisation faces challenges due to fragmented operations, limited access to finance and low adoption of advanced technologies, requiring targeted policy and financial interventions.
Alignment with climate commitments
According to NITI Aayog, aligning industrial growth with India’s climate commitments — including a 45 per cent reduction in emissions intensity by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2070 — will require coordinated action across technology deployment, policy frameworks and financing mechanisms.
The roadmap states that without structural changes in production processes, energy sourcing and material use, emissions from aluminium, cement and MSMEs will rise in line with output growth, underscoring the scale of the transition required in India’s industrial sector.