Bangladesh will marginally overtake India in GDP per capita income during the 2026 fiscal year. The projection was shared by the International Monetary Fund in its latest World Economic Outlook data — which also showed India slipping from the fourth largest economy in the world to sixth position.

According to the IMF, Bangladesh will see its per capita income reach $2,911 in 2026. The figure is marginally higher than the $2,812 projected for neighbouring India. While the gap is narrow, this is the second time in recent years that Dhaka has outpaced its larger neighbour on this specific metric. IMF projections suggest India will again overtake Bangladesh in 2027 — with an estimated per capita GDP of $3,074. Data suggests India will maintain that lead until at least 2031.

What is GDP per capita?

GDP per capita is a key economic metric that is calculated by dividing the GDP (total economic output) by the national population. Put more simply, it is the average economic output of a single citizen in a country. It acts as an indicator of the life led by an average person in the country.

India remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy in terms of total volume, but it is also the most populous country on the planet. The massive population requires India to ensure sustained GDP growth just to maintain stable per capita averages. The country had also suffered a sharper economic contraction during the COVID-19 pandemic (as compared to Bangladesh). This in turn created a lower baseline for the subsequent recovery.

IMF growth forecast for India

The latest International Monetary Fund data showed India slipping from fourth to sixth position among the world’s largest economies. Experts, however, believe that this will be a short-lived period — with New Delhi still on track to become the world’s third-largest economy in the coming years.

“For 2026, growth is revised upward moderately by 0.3 percentage point (0.1 percentage point relative to January) to 6.5 percent, led by positive contributions from the carryover of the strong 2025 outturn and the decline in additional US tariffs on Indian goods from 50 to 10 percent, which outweigh the adverse impact of the Middle East conflict. Growth is projected to stay at 6.5 percent in 2027,” read an excerpt from the IMF report.

“Two things happened. One, we changed the base year for GDP calculation… Second, rupee depreciated last year by almost 10%. Both these things combined brought our GDP from above $4 trillion to below $4 trillion,” Kotak Mutual Fund MD Nilesh Shah told ANI.

Shah, who also serves as a member of the Prime Minister’s economic advisory committee, acknowledged the development warrants attention but dismissed concerns of any reversal in growth momentum.

“Is this something which we need to be bothered about? Answer is undoubtedly yes. But should we be worried that now our car is going in reverse? No, there’s nothing like that,” he added.