A massive global appetite for artificial intelligence (AI) technology has kept world commerce afloat, effectively shielding the global economy from severe trade disruptions triggered by escalating conflict in West Asia, according to joint estimates by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

Global merchandise trade volume grew 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, expanding 1.9% over the previous quarter. In value terms, world trade surged 11% year-on-year, driven primarily by a 40% explosion in trade of AI-enabling goods and electronic components.

The unexpected resilience in global commerce comes despite a severe flare-up of war in West Asia that began in March, severely disrupting shipping routes through the critical Strait of Hormuz, driving up energy costs, and dampening growth prospects for net fuel-importing nations.

Investment in AI infrastructure proved to be the single largest engine of global trade growth between January and March.

Demand for computing power sent trade in office and telecom equipment skyrocketing by 44% year-on-year, making it the best-performing sector globally. Ores and minerals also posted strong gains of 27%, fueled by appetite for industrial metals like copper, while general machinery grew 9%.

Asia emerged as the central hub of this commercial surge, recording a 20% jump in export values and volume increases of 12.9% in exports and 14.6% in imports. Much of Asia’s momentum is due to the rapid intra-regional movement of microchips, semiconductors, and electronic hardware required for AI deployment.

The pace of year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2026 was particularly impressive considering that trade in the first quarter of 2025 was boosted by the frontloading of imports in North America ahead of expected tariff hikes. The effects of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on world merchandise trade is expected to become visible primarily in data from April 2026 onward.

The conflict has weighed heavily on merchandise trade flows of West Asia. The region’s seasonally adjusted export and import volumes were down 9.7% and 11.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, with larger contractions expected in the second quarter (April-June)

WTO Secretariat estimates show the volume of world crude oil imports from West Asia down roughly 45% year-on-year in March. Similarly, imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and fertilizers from the region were down 52% and 26%, respectively, over the same period.

As for North America, its first quarter exports were up 7.0% year-on-year. North American imports were down 10.7% from the first quarter of 2025, which saw a surge of imports due to frontloading ahead of expected tariff increases. Quarter-on-quarter growth, however, remained strong at 3.4%.

A 2.6% year-on-year decline in the volume of Europe’s exports was also mostly related to frontloading of shipments of gold and pharmaceuticals to North America in the first quarter of last year. European import volume registered a modest 0.6% increase.

While technology investments continue to act as an anchor for world commerce, trade experts caution that protracted conflict in West Asia could compound inflationary pressures globally. Declines in traditional industrial commodities—such as chemicals (-6%), iron and steel (-5%), and fuels (-3%)—signal underlying vulnerabilities in non-tech sectors as energy supply chains remain under strain.