Market research agency Numerator (formerly Kantar) has forecast a higher growth rate for the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market in calendar 2026, saying that it will touch 5% towards the late first half of the calendar year. This growth, the agency says, will be “slow but steady” as it inches towards the 5% mark. FMCG growth in calendar year 2025 was 4.1% in a period marked by weather uncertainty, urban slowdown woes and GST-led disruptions.
“Categories where we have seen high growth are expected to normalise in growth, given that they are becoming larger now, which is one of the reasons growth will be slow at the FMCG level, but that is not bad per se,” said K Ramakrishnan, managing director – South Asia, Worldpanel by Numerator.
Urban Turnaround
Also, FMCG volume growth in urban markets moved higher than rural growth to 4.6% in 2025 from 4.5% reported in 2024. Rural growth decelerated to 3.6% in 2025 from 5% reported a year earlier, Numerator data shows.
Meanwhile, December 2025 quarter data shows that FMCG volume growth stood at 4.5% versus 4.7% seen in the September quarter. Numerator has pointed to disruption in sales due to a split in the festive period and trade-level challenges following GST 2.0 reforms.
GST 2.0 and Category Shifting
The research agency also says that categories in the home hygiene space, convenience, and cooking oils have slowed down in Q4 of CY2025 versus last year. Floor cleaners and utensil cleaners have also seen some slowdown versus last year’s quarter, the agency said.
Snacking, on the other hand, grew at near 6% in Q4 of CY2025 against a 4.4% growth seen in the year-ago period. Soft drinks also have revived towards the end of the year clocking 19% growth against 13% seen last year.