India’s power demand hit an unexpected inflection point in January, with peak electricity load rising to 245 gigawatts (GW) — surpassing the previous summer peak of 243 GW — as a prolonged cold wave across northern and eastern India sharply lifted heating-related consumption, according to a new Crisil Intelligence analysis.
Overall electricity demand increased 4.5% year-on-year to around 143 billion units (BUs) in January 2026, making it the highest January consumption recorded since at least 2010, the report showed.
The surge marked a departure from India’s typical seasonal demand pattern, where winter months usually see muted consumption compared to summer peaks driven by cooling demand.
Instead, dense fog and extended cold spells triggered higher electricity use in households and commercial establishments, particularly in the northern region, where power demand rose about 5.5% on-year.
Temprature settings
Minimum temperatures between January 8 and 14 remained 2–4 degrees Celsius below normal across parts of west and northwest India, coinciding with the month’s peak demand event on January 9. The spike pushed winter demand past levels normally seen only during extreme summer heat.
Industrial activity provided additional support. Manufacturing output continued to expand in January, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index remaining firmly above the expansion threshold.
Given that industrial and commercial users account for nearly half of India’s electricity consumption, steady factory activity helped sustain elevated base demand through the month. The demand shock was mirrored in power market activity.
Volumes traded in the Real-Time Market (RTM) jumped nearly 53% year-on-year to 4,638 million units (MUs), reflecting heightened short-term procurement by distribution companies to meet sudden demand spikes.
Despite the surge in volumes, prices softened due to sufficient generation availability. Average RTM prices declined 16% to Rs 3.72 per unit, while prices during solar hours averaged Rs 2.5 per unit, with some time blocks clearing below Re 1.
The Day-Ahead Market (DAM)
The Day-Ahead Market (DAM) also saw lower prices, with average tariffs falling about 13% on-year to Rs 3.86 per unit, allowing discoms and large consumers to substitute costlier contracted power with cheaper exchange purchases.
Supply-side dynamics remained supportive. Power generation rose 6% year-on-year to 156 BUs in January, with output increasing across all fuel sources — a first for the current fiscal. Renewable energy generation climbed 10%, driven by sustained capacity additions, while coal-based generation increased about 5%, pushing coal’s share of total generation to around 74% for the month.
Hydropower and nuclear generation also recorded double-digit and mid-single-digit growth, respectively, helping stabilise the grid during the demand surge.
Coal availability remained comfortable, with thermal power plants holding 56 million tonnes of coal stock at the end of January — equivalent to 18 days of consumption — the highest level since July 2025, easing concerns over supply disruptions during peak demand conditions.
For the April–January period, overall power demand growth remained muted at around 0.9%, as a prolonged monsoon earlier in the year offset part of the summer cooling load. For the full fiscal, Crisil estimates electricity demand growth of 1–1.5%, translating to 1,710–1,730 BUs.