PM Modi UAE visit: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United Arab Emirates on Friday is expected to put energy security at the heart of India’s talks with one of its key partners. With tensions in West Asia continuing to disrupt global oil markets, India is keen to secure reliable supplies of crude oil, LPG, and LNG. During his meeting with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the focus will likely be on long-term supply agreements, strategic storage arrangements, and safer alternative routes for energy shipments.
The visit comes at a time when international crude prices remain unstable and shipping routes in the Gulf face fresh risks. For India, the goal is to reduce dependence on uncertain sources and build a stronger shield against sudden price spikes and supply disruptions.
The UAE has become one of India’s most trusted energy suppliers, thanks to both the large volumes it provides and the strong partnership developed over the years. Reports suggest the two sides are expected to sign new agreements on LPG supplies and strategic petroleum reserves during the Abu Dhabi visit.
Beyond simply buying more energy, India aims to create a more resilient supply system that can withstand geopolitical shocks. Policymakers, refiners, and industry players are closely watching the outcome of this visit, as they view the UAE as a vital pillar of India’s energy safety net.
What India may gain?
One of the biggest expected outcomes of the visit is a stronger and more predictable energy partnership with the UAE. The Gulf nation already supplies nearly 40 per cent of India’s LPG requirements and remains a major partner for crude oil and LNG imports. Reports indicate that Indian Oil Corporation and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) may sign a strategic collaboration agreement on LPG, while Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited and ADNOC are expected to deepen cooperation on strategic oil reserves. Such agreements would matter not only for immediate fuel supply, but also for long-term planning, since they can help India secure volumes under more stable commercial terms.
A deeper tie-up on LPG would be especially important for household energy security and for India’s wider fuel distribution system. India’s LPG demand has grown sharply over the years because of rising household consumption and government-backed clean cooking initiatives. Any stronger linkage with ADNOC could make supply chains smoother and reduce exposure to sudden disruptions in the spot market. In addition, collaboration on strategic petroleum reserves could allow India to strengthen emergency stockpiles, which are essential in times of conflict, shipping delays or abrupt market tightening.
Another possible gain lies in broader commercial flexibility. India may seek more durable contracts, faster cargo scheduling and smoother coordination between state-run firms and UAE suppliers. These steps would not produce dramatic headlines, but they are vital for keeping the oil system stable. A more predictable relationship with the UAE could also support India’s refiners, who depend on a steady flow of crude to keep domestic production and fuel marketing efficient.
Storage and supply routes
A key strategic possibility is greater UAE participation in India’s strategic petroleum storage system. ADNOC already stores more than 5 million barrels of crude at Mangaluru, and this arrangement could be expanded or supplemented through additional cooperation. Such storage partnerships are important because they give India a cushion against supply shocks and price volatility. In the event of a regional crisis, access to reserve oil can help the country avoid immediate disruption and buy time for other market adjustments.
The UAE’s Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman is also expected to come up in the discussions. Fujairah is viewed as a safer export route because it lies outside the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most sensitive energy chokepoints. For India, this is significant because a large share of its oil imports from the Gulf pass through sea lanes that can be affected by conflict, blockades or heightened military activity. Expanding the use of Fujairah and improving pipeline connectivity from Abu Dhabi’s Habshan fields could provide India with a more secure and diversified energy pathway.
This route diversification matters even more now because India has already started exploring alternatives in case the Middle East conflict disrupts shipping lanes for more than 10 to 15 days. While a short disruption may be manageable, a prolonged crisis could tighten supplies and push up costs across the economy. If the UAE can help India diversify routes and logistics, the country will be better positioned to reduce dependence on a single transit corridor. That could prove especially useful not just for crude, but also for LPG and LNG cargoes, where timing and reliability are crucial.
Impact on India’s oil sector
For India’s oil sector, the visit is likely to improve resilience rather than deliver an immediate fall in fuel prices. A stronger supply partnership with the UAE would help refiners plan better, secure inventory and manage volatility more efficiently. This is especially important because India’s oil companies have faced repeated pressure from international price swings in the past. By creating more stable access to crude and LPG, the government may be able to soften the impact of future market shocks, even if retail prices do not change right away.
Greater storage access would also give policymakers more room to respond to emergencies. Strategic reserves are not meant for daily consumption; they are a buffer in case global supply lines are interrupted or prices become too unstable. If India can deepen cooperation with the UAE on such reserves, it would strengthen the country’s ability to manage crises without panic buying or abrupt fuel shortages. That kind of resilience is often more valuable than short-term price relief, particularly in a period of persistent global uncertainty.
The visit could also reinforce India’s broader energy transition strategy. While crude oil remains central to the country’s economy, India is trying to secure cleaner fuels and more efficient supply structures at the same time. Longer-term LPG and LNG arrangements with the UAE could support that balance by ensuring cleaner domestic fuel access while reducing dependence on spot market purchases. In that sense, the visit is not only about securing barrels and cargoes, but also about creating a more dependable energy future.
Why the timing of this visit matters?
The timing of the visit makes it especially important. West Asia tensions have already made global oil markets nervous, and India remains one of the world’s biggest energy importers. Any instability in the Gulf quickly affects freight costs, insurance premiums and crude benchmarks, which eventually feed into domestic fuel economics. Against this backdrop, a strong energy understanding with the UAE can offer India more breathing room.
The visit also comes when governments around the world are reassessing supply chains and strategic reserves. For India, the challenge is to keep fuel supplies affordable, stable and secure without becoming overly dependent on any one route or market condition. A deeper partnership with the UAE would not eliminate those risks, but it could reduce them meaningfully. That is why the expected outcomes of the visit are being seen as strategic, not just transactional, with implications for India’s energy security, refinery planning and long-term economic stability.