India’s retail inflation rose marginally to 3.48 percent in April compared to 3.40 percent in the preceding month, mainly due to an uptick in food prices.

Food inflation, as per the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was 4.2 percent last month compared to 3.87 percent in March.

The year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) with base year 2024 for April was 3.48 percent, according to the National Statistics Organization (NSO) data.

The corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban were 3.74 percent and 3.16 percent, respectively.

ALSO READ

Last month, the Reserve Bank projected the CPI inflation for 2026-27 at 4.6 percent, with 4 percent in Q1. 

It also said that persistently elevated energy prices due to the West Asia conflict and possible El Nino conditions (which could have a negative impact on the southwest monsoon) pose upside risks to inflation. 

‘This offers some cushion’: ICRA

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, said that the CPI inflation inched up only mildly to 3.5% in April 2026 from 3.4% in March 2026, much softer than their expectation of a jump to 3.9% in the aftermath of the West Asia crisis. 

“This offers some cushion, given the prolonging of the stalemate in West Asia, ⁠with crude ​oil prices remaining elevated for the time being, as well as the possibility of a sub-par monsoon.” she added. 

ALSO READ

Nayar added that, overall, we expect YoY CPI inflation to harden to ~4.1% in May 2026 from 3.5% in April 2026, around the midpoint of the MPC’s medium-term target range of 2-6%.  As a result, we expect the MPC ​to ​remain on hold during the June 2026 policy review, Nayar said. 

‘Food inflation trajectory needs to be monitored’: Bank of Baroda

Dipanwita Mazumdar, Economist at Bank of Baroda, said,  “CPI inched up in Apr’26 albeit remaining below the 4% target level. There has been continuous buildup of inflationary pressures on food inflation front. Among food, vegetables and pulses, edible oils and protein-based items are driving inflation higher.”, 

Mazumdar said that further monitoring is required as weather-related vagaries persist, in terms of heatwave conditions and expected El Nino, hence food inflation trajectory needs to be monitored closely.