The sharp increase in the visa rejection rates for Indian students in key markets like the US and Australia is expected to put a spanner in the aspirations of students who are planning to pursue overseas education. As per international student recruitment firm Shorelight, as many as 61% Indian students were denied US’ most popular student visa type (F-1) in 2025, up from 53% in 2024 and 36% in 2023. The high rejection rates for India, which is the largest source market for the US colleges, has also led to global rejection rate for F-1 visas reaching a 10-year high in 2025, Shorelight report said.
The data shows that the US visa rejection has largely affected South Asian countries (India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan) even as several countries in Europe are still holding up with low single-digit rejections. Experts link the high rejection rate, particularly for the US and Australia, to the tightening of the visa regime for specific regions.
Disparity in Global Vetting
Karunn Kandoi, founder of Vidysea Education said that the stark difference between the European and Indian rejection rates indicates that the Indian passport holders are being penalised. “When 91% of Europeans are approved and 61% of Indians are rejected for the same programmes, that is not vetting, that’s a geography tax,” he said.
“One of the difficulties is that visa evaluations are no longer regarded solely from an academic perspective. In certain instances, wider immigration issues influence the context in which students are evaluated. Because of the concerns around low-skilled migration, compliance, and domestic political pressure, there is growing scepticism that applicants may eventually seek out unofficial or illegal ways to stay in the host nation,” said Siddharth Anand, founder and CEO of Tertiary Education Advisors.
Besides the US, there’s a surge in the visa rejections in Australia with 40% of the Indian applications refused in early 2026. Broadly, the visa refusal rate for higher-education in Australia touched 32.5% in February, which is highest in two decades.
Australian Scrutiny
Even as the student-visa scrutiny has tightened in Australia, the situation is unlikely to improve in the future. Starting January 2026, Australian authorities have reclassified Indians applying for student visa from Evidence Level 2 (EL2) to Evidence Level 3 (EL3), making Indian students subject to greater scrutiny.
Currently, Australia uses four evidence levels under its risk-based evidence system. EL3 puts India in the second-highest scrutiny category that will require visa applicants to submit submit comprehensive financial proof, extensive academic records and a detailed Genuine Student statement.
“It seems that the policy has been designed to target Indian students. If the rejection rate for Chinese students is just 3% as compared to 40% for Indian students, there’s a problem with the risk assessment framework,” said Kandoi.
Meanwhile, Canada has also reported a sharp drop in the new study permits with 64% decline in new permits in 2025 as compared to 2024. The new study permits in Canada dropped to 75,372 last year on account of the government introducing cap on the international student enrolments beginning 2024, stringent policies to approve new study permits, and the overall demand slump. With a 7% reduction in enrolment cap (408,000) for 2026, the students will find it even more challenging to pursue higher education in Canada.
The decline is visa approval has also taken a toll on the domestic study abroad operators who are reporting a drop in the business from these countries. Leading industry players have seen their business dropping by 35-40% for the US cohort over the past two years.
Piyush Kumar, regional director (South Asia, Canada and Latin America) at IDP Education said that the increase in visa rejection rates in destinations such as Australia and the US highlights their intent to strengthen the quality and integrity of their international education systems.
“Indian students should not be deterred by this change and continue focusing on their application process as before, ensuring they follow a detailed and structured application process, aligned with early preparation, ensuring complete and transparent documentation and having their finances in order. These destinations continue to offer high-quality education and strong career pathways,” he said.