H-1B ‘weighted’ lottery math explained: Entry-level odds slashed by half

The Trump administration has reshaped the H-1B visa system, moving it away from a random lottery to a wage-weighted model. Data, cited by Newsweek shows entry-level applicants are the hardest hit, with their chances of selection dropping by nearly 50%. Higher-paid roles now get as many as four entries, while lower-paid ones get just one. Add the $100,000 fee for certain overseas filings, and it’s clear the H-1B has become far harder to access for entry-level workers.

The US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has announced that it is opening the first registration window for the 2027 H-1B visa cap. The details were shared in an official press release on Jan 31st. The registration period will begin at 12 noon ET on March 4 and close at 12 noon ET on March 19. During this time, employers and their authorised representatives must register each potential H-1B worker online through a USCIS account.

Each registration will cost $215 per beneficiary. USCIS has made it clear that only registrations submitted during this window will be considered for selection under the annual H-1B cap.

New wage-based selection system explained

This registration cycle is also the first time USCIS will apply a new wage-based selection system if registrations go beyond the annual visa limit. Under new rules from the Department of Homeland Security, the agency will no longer depend only on a random lottery. Instead, applications for higher-paying jobs will be given more weight. The goal is to prioritise higher-paid speciality roles.

Under the old system, each registration had about a 30% chance of being selected. According to DHS estimates, the new weighted system changes those odds completely.

“Based upon DHS’s model, only those submissions at Wage Level I have decreased the chances of being selected,” said Morgan Bailey, a partner at Mayer Brown and a former DHS official, in an interview with Newsweek.

Under the new model, applications at Wage Level II or higher keep the same odds or see better chances. Meanwhile, Wage Level I applications could see their chances fall by nearly half. DHS estimates that selection chances could rise by 3% for Level II, 55% for Level III, and 107% for Level IV submissions.

The wage-weighted model assumes normal registration volumes. They do not account for possible disruptions, including the $100,000 fee, state-level limits on H-1B filings by universities or public agencies, processing delays, or court challenges.

Despite the new rules, the total number of visas remains the same. The annual H-1B cap is still 65,000 visas, with an additional 20,000 visas reserved for applicants who have earned a master’s degree or higher from a US university.

 H-1B Visa cap update: When employers will hear back

Once the registration period ends, USCIS will run its selection process. Employers whose registrations are chosen will be notified through their online USCIS accounts by March 31. Those selected will then be allowed to file full H-1B cap-subject petitions starting April 1. These petitions should be submitted within the legal filing window, which is usually 90 days.

This year’s H-1B registration comes at a time when the Trump administration is tightening control over the visa programme. The government has introduced several changes aimed at reducing fraud and encouraging companies to offer higher wages.

One of the biggest changes was the introduction of a $100,000 fee in September for certain H-1B petitions. The administration has said these higher fees are meant to reduce reliance on foreign labour.