The issuance of immigrant visas from 75 countries has been paused by the US. Is that good news for the green card applicants from countries that remain outside the ban?
The immigrant visas subsequently help immigrants to become eligible for the green cards. As the nationals of these 75 countries will no longer be eligible for green cards, there is a possibility for unused family-based green cards to “spill over” to the employment-based category due to the freeze on immigrant visas from these countries, as Emily Neumann, Immigration Attorney, suggests.
Green Card Spill Over Effect
The suspension of immigrant visas from 75 countries initiated on January 21 could result in an additional 50,000 employment-based Green Card allocations in 2027. According to Emily Neumann, Immigration Attorney, this could be possible if the potential transfer of unused family-based Green Card quotas to employment-based categories happens in the following year.
Neumann estimates that approximately 67,000 family-based green cards might have been issued from those countries in 2024. Factoring in the first quarter of 2025, where visas were likely issued before the ban, it is estimated that around 50,000 green cards could potentially spill over into the employment-based quota for the fiscal year 2027.
Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Jamaica are identified as countries with higher rates of family-based immigration affected by the ban.
While this spillover could be substantial, Neumann clarifies that it is not expected to be as significant as the spillover experienced in 2020, which doubled the usual number of green cards.
Neumann plans to analyze inventory data of pending I-485 applications to assess the potential impact on priority dates, particularly for Indian applicants.
Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, is used to apply for lawful permanent resident status or the green card if the immigrant is in the United States.
Per-Country Limit
Project for Immigration Reform with an X handle, @PFIRorg wrote, “If you think the immigrant visa ban affecting 75+ countries will reduce overall legal immigration numbers, immigration lawyers are pointing out that those unused green cards will spill over into the employment-based category, benefiting H-1B workers from India.”
PFIRorg explained how it works: The per-country limit does not disappear. The law still caps any single country at seven percent of the total employment-based visas issued in a year. But that seven percent is calculated against the worldwide total for that year. When spillover increases the total number of employment-based green cards, the numerical ceiling for each country rises with it. In practical terms, a larger pool means a larger slice.
This dynamic is not theoretical. It played out during the COVID-era shutdowns, when family-based consular processing slowed dramatically. The disruption was not incidental. President Trump issued an executive order suspending the issuance of certain immigrant visas abroad while global consular operations were constrained by pandemic closures. Tens of thousands of family-based visas went unused.
As a result, they rolled over into the employment-based system. Indian nationals, many of whom were already present in the United States on temporary work visas and eligible to adjust status to lawful permanent residence, benefited disproportionately. The per-country limit still applies, but the larger total allows for more visas to flow to oversubscribed categories.