The Trump administration’s policies will reduce legal immigration to the United States by an estimated 33% to 50%, or by 1.5 million to 2.4 million legal immigrants, by the end of Donald Trump’s four-year term, according to a National Foundation for American Policy analysis.
The FY 2023 level of legal immigration was 1,172,910, or 4,691,640 over 4 years. NFAP estimates 1,546,710 to 2,369,998, or 33% to 50%, fewer legal immigrants will gain green cards during Donald Trump’s administration.
This fall in number could be due to policies that include significantly lower admission levels for refugees, restrictions on the Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens due to “public charge” policies and a 39-country immigration ban, actions taken against Diversity Visa recipients and other policies.
Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens
NFAP estimates that 941,625 to 1,654,770 fewer Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens will gain green cards during the Trump administration due to restrictive policies. NFAP estimates the December 16 proclamation on 39 countries, which prohibits the entry of the Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens and others, will reduce immigration by up to 76,000 a year, depending on whether processing is permitted for adjustment of status inside the United States.
The NFAP analysis assumes that individuals from the 75 countries on the Jan. 14 “freeze” list— except for those banned from the 39 countries under the Dec. 16 proclamation—will eventually be allowed to apply for immigrant visas and adjustment of status.
However, between 50% to 100% of them will be denied immigrant visas, depending on how strictly DHS and the State Department enforce their new “public charge” criteria designed to block new immigrants.
The most significant impact of the Dec. 16 proclamation will be on the individuals affected, U.S. citizens who want to sponsor close relatives for immigration from the 39 countries, employers that wish to hire them and U.S. universities that want to enroll these individuals as students.
Spill-Over Effect
The immigrant visas subsequently help immigrants to become eligible for the green cards. As the nationals of these 75 countries will no longer be eligible for green cards, there is a possibility for unused family-based green cards to “spill over” to the employment-based category due to the freeze on immigrant visas from these countries, as Emily Neumann, Immigration Attorney, suggests. This could be possible if the potential transfer of unused family-based Green Card quotas to employment-based categories happens in the following year.