Markets are not anticipating rate cuts from the US Fed FOMC meeting announcements today. The FOMC meeting decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. ET on March 18, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The live proceedings of Powell’s announcements will be broadcast on The Federal Reserve’s YouTube channel.
While interest rates are expected to remain steady, investors, traders, analysts, and market gurus will focus on Powell’s news conference. Powell’s tone and guidance on March 18 will significantly influence global markets, especially the U.S. stock market.
In a recent update, US Producer Prices and also core PPI rose more than expected. US producer prices grew 0.7% month on month in February 2026, up from 0.5% in January and far beyond predictions of 0.3%. It is the largest increase in producer prices in seven months, with goods prices rising by 1.1%, the highest since August 2023, led by a 48.9% increase in prices for fresh and dry vegetables.
Core producer prices in the United States, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.5% in February 2026, slowing from a 0.8% increase in January but exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% rise. Core producer prices rose 3.9% year on year in February, the biggest increase in three years, following a downwardly revised 3.5% rise the previous month.
Rate Cut or Rate Hike
Powell’s comments on the energy crisis and its implications for higher inflation are likely to attract significant attention. If Powell’s comments suggest resurgent inflation driven by higher oil prices, the potential for a rate cut in the medium term disappears.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s market probability tracker is already hinting at a possible rate hike in 2026. The tracker is showing a 25% chance of a hike compared to a 20% chance of a cut. Rising energy prices as a result of the Iran war may increase inflation, causing the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in order to maintain high employment and keep inflation under control.
Powell has always stated across meetings that the US Fed takes a wait-and-watch strategy, looking at new incoming data before making monetary policy decisions. On April 10, 2026, the next set of US CPI data for March 2026 will be made public. The most crucial piece of information that will provide some clues regarding the US Fed’s future course will soon be the US CPI data for March 2026.
Meanwhile, Powell faces increasing pressure to decrease interest rates. US President Donald Trump once again urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates right away during a White House meeting, stating that they ought to hold a “special meeting” to do so, which never happened. Powell steps down as Chair in May 2026, but remains on the Board of Governors until 2028.
Brent crude prices dipped to about $102 per barrel on Wednesday, reversing gains from the previous session, after Iraq agreed to resume oil exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, alleviating fears about supply interruptions caused by the Iran war.
The US has also increased efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while partner nations have so far rejected President Donald Trump’s appeal to help protect cargo via the restricted waterway. Still, Iran has permitted safe passage for some vessels based on their ties.
Meanwhile, Iranian official media has confirmed the death of Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and a prominent member of Iran’s wartime administration. Iran has also stepped up attacks on regional energy infrastructure this week, including strikes on Saudi Arabia’s eastern province.