According to a recent Forbes report, legal immigration to the United States could dramatically fall under Donald Trump’s administration, with numbers dropping anywhere between 33% and 50% over four years. The primary way this would happen is by making it much harder for Americans to bring their closest family members to live with them in the US.
According to a new research, quieter cuts to legal immigration may end up having an even bigger impact, affecting millions of families over the time period.’
Trump administration plans could cut legal immigration by 33% to 50%
Since returning to the power in 2025, Trump officials have rolled out a series of policies that stop US citizens and employers from sponsoring immigrants legally. These moves could override long-running immigration rules passed by Congress, unless courts step in to block them.
According to a new analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), “The Trump administration’s policies will reduce legal immigration to the United States by an estimated 33% to 50%, or by 1.5 million to 2.4 million legal immigrants, by the end of Donald Trump’s four-year term.”
In 2023, about 1.17 million people legally moved to the United States and got green cards. If things continued the same way, nearly 4.7 million people would have gotten green cards over four years. But NFAP estimates that because of new Trump administration rules, between 1.5 million and 2.4 million fewer people will be allowed to get green cards during Trump’s four-year term. That means legal immigration could drop by one-third to half.
The abovementioned figures do not even include up to 2.7 million people who were already living legally in the US when Trump returned to office but are now facing uncertainty. The administration has ended Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of immigrants already.
On top of that, upcoming changes could limit international students’ ability to work after graduation through OPT and STEM OPT.
Why family sponsorship matters so much in US
Under current law, a US citizen can sponsor a spouse, children under 21, and parents as immediate relatives. Green card holders can sponsor spouses and children as well. Nearly 48% of all legal immigration comes through the immediate relatives category alone.
That is why targeting this group is so effective if the goal is to reduce immigration. There is no cap on immediate relatives, meaning every person blocked is one less immigrant admitted.
Stephen Miller’s role and the two main tools being used
Trump’s immigration agenda is being led by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, the main architect of these policies. The administration is using two main tools to stop Americans from sponsoring close family members:
First, it has imposed country-based entry bans. Second, it is applying a new and stricter interpretation of “public charge”, allowing officials to deny visas if they believe someone might use public benefits in the future. NFAP estimates that because of these policies: “Between 941,625 and 1,654,770 fewer Immediate Relatives of US Citizens will gain green cards during the Trump administration.”
This means hundreds of thousands of Americans may be unable to live in the US with their spouse, child or parent. A major turning point came on December 16, when the administration issued a proclamation blocking immigrants, including immediate relatives of US citizens, from 39 countries, about 20% of the world’s nations.
This move alone could reduce immigration by up to 76,000 people a year.