Picture a bank clerk in Mumbai, a school teacher in Pune and a customer support executive in Delhi. All three now have a new colleague they never interviewed, never hired and cannot ignore – Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen-AI).
The big question is no longer whether AI will become part of everyday work. It already has. The key concern now is – Will it replace workers or simply help them work better?
Goldman Sachs lists India’s biggest AI story
According to the latest report by global brokerage house Goldman Sachs, the answer is far more balanced than the fears surrounding AI often suggest. While certain routine jobs may come under pressure, the brokerage believes India’s biggest AI story is likely to be one of higher productivity rather than widespread job losses.
From the internet revolution to smartphones and digital payments, every major technology wave has reshaped India’s economy. Goldman Sachs believes Generative AI could become the next major transformation catalyst. But unlike earlier technologies, it may change not just industries, but the very nature of work itself.
So, how many jobs are actually at risk? Which sectors could benefit the most? And why does India’s digital infrastructure now matter more than ever? Here’s a look at what the report says.
Gen AI adoption in India: The numbers that stand out
Goldman Sachs estimates that Generative AI could perform 9 – 17% of the tasks currently undertaken by India’s non-agricultural workforce, depending on how capable future AI models become at handling increasingly complex work.
But that does not mean AI will replace the same percentage of jobs.
Instead, the brokerage estimates that 8-12% of non-agricultural employment is at risk of substitution, while a much larger 42 – 48% of jobs are likely to be complemented by AI, with the remaining workforce expected to remain largely unaffected.
As the report noted, “The labour-market effect of Gen-AI adoption in India is more likely to be augmentation than broad-based substitution.”
In simple words, AI is expected to automate certain tasks rather than entire professions. Workers may spend less time on repetitive activities and more time on work requiring judgement, creativity and human interaction.
| Impact on jobs | Goldman Sachs estimate |
| Tasks Gen-AI could perform | 9-17% |
| Jobs at substitution risk | 8-12% |
| Jobs likely to be complemented | 42-48% |
| Jobs largely unaffected | Around 45-50% |
Goldman on jobs in India: Who should worry and who shouldn’t?
The Goldman Sachs report suggests that not every occupation faces the same level of disruption.
According to Goldman Sachs, “Employment declines are likely to be concentrated in occupations like routine clerical support, professional and technician.”
These are jobs where a significant share of work involves repetitive documentation, data processing or standardised workflows that AI models can increasingly handle.
On the other hand, occupations involving physical work remain relatively protected.
The report noted that “Routine-physical occupations, followed by craft and trade-related workers and machine operators, may see an increase in employment, as physical, manual and interpersonal tasks remain difficult to automate.”
In other words, AI may struggle to replace a plumber, electrician, carpenter or machine operator anytime soon.
Goldman on jobs in India: Healthcare, education and finance may benefit the most
One of the report’s biggest findings is that AI’s impact may be strongest in knowledge-intensive industries.
Goldman Sachs added “Healthcare, education, financial and professional services appear more exposed to AI-related augmentation through diagnostics and data analytics.”
Rather than replacing professionals, AI is expected to assist them.
For example, doctors could use AI to analyse scans faster, teachers may rely on AI-powered personalised learning tools, while financial professionals could use AI for research, modelling and data analysis.
The report also explained that sectors such as media and entertainment are well placed to benefit from AI-assisted content creation and data-driven workflows.
By contrast, industries like construction and manufacturing are expected to see relatively smaller productivity gains because much of the work remains physical.
India’s IT industry: More resilient than expected?
Artificial Intelligence has sparked concerns that India’s Information Technology (IT) services industry could face significant disruption.
Goldman Sachs, however, paints a more nuanced picture.
According to the report, “While routine IT-BPS functions face substitution risk, aggregate tech sector employment, services exports, and GCC expansion remain resilient, as of now.”
The brokerage noted that headcount reductions have largely been limited to India’s six largest IT services firms.
Meanwhile, the broader technology ecosystem has continued to expand.
The report pointed out that the largest six IT companies reduced their workforce by around 64,000 employees, while the rest of the technology services industry including Global Capability Centres (GCCs) added nearly 700,000 employees, taking total employment to around 4.4 million over the past three years.
Goldman on jobs in India: The productivity opportunity
Beyond jobs, Goldman Sachs believes India’s biggest opportunity lies in productivity.
Its baseline estimate suggests that Generative AI could increase annual labour productivity growth by around 0.4 percentage points over the next decade, with estimates ranging between 0.1 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points depending on how advanced AI becomes.
According to the report, “Knowledge-intensive services i.e. healthcare, education, media, parts of financial and professional services look best placed to benefit, while gains in construction and manufacturing are likely to be limited.”
The brokerage also believes how AI is adopted will matter just as much as how fast it is adopted.
As the report stated, “If deployment of labour-augmenting Gen-AI is prioritized before substitution-intensive deployment, productivity gains would likely broaden before labour-market disruption becomes more visible.”
That means companies using AI first to improve employee productivity rather than replace workers could see broader economic benefits with fewer disruptions.
| Metric | Goldman Sachs observation |
| India’s share of global data-centre capacity | ~1% |
| US share | ~47% |
| China share | ~25% |
| Expected productivity boost | 0.4 percentage points annually (baseline) |
| Productivity range | 0.1-0.8 percentage points |
The biggest hurdle isn’t AI
While the opportunities are significant, Goldman Sachs says India’s biggest challenge could be infrastructure.
According to the Goldman Sachs report, “India’s Gen-AI diffusion will depend not just on software capability, but also on compute affordability, data-centre buildout, reliable power, water availability, and broader digital infrastructure.”
India currently has only around 1 gigawatt of data-centre capacity, accounting for roughly 1% of global data-centre capacity.
Scaling AI across a country of 1.4 billion people will therefore require substantial investments in data centres, computing power, electricity, water and digital connectivity.
The report also warned that rising protectionism in overseas markets could pose risks for India’s services exports if countries increasingly prefer local AI models and stricter cross-border data rules.
India’s AI journey: Evolution, not revolution?
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from Goldman Sachs’ report is that India’s AI journey may be less about replacing people and more about changing the way they work.
The report added that “Gen-AI is more likely to reallocate labour across occupations over the Gen-AI adoption period.”
For India, that means the coming decade may not simply be about fewer jobs or more jobs. It may instead be about different jobs, new skills and a workforce where humans and Artificial Intelligence increasingly work together rather than compete against each other.
Disclaimer: This article covers findings from a brokerage report on broader macroeconomic and technology trends for informational purposes only. It does not constitute personal financial, investment, or professional career advice. This disclaimer has been generated using AI to support user well-being and responsible content consumption.