Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio are expected to be neck and neck in terms of earnings growth for the December quarter, with brokerages projecting both to post up to a 4% sequential upswing in revenues. Vodafone Idea, on the other hand, is expected to report a flat quarter as it continues to struggle with stemming subscriber losses and sustaining revenue momentum.
Revenue growth is expected to be driven by subscriber additions and incremental improvements in average revenue per user (Arpu), rather than any pricing-led reset. Industry-wide Arpu growth for the quarter is projected at 0.4–1.0% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting continued upgrades in subscriber mix even as tariff hikes remain absent.
A look at Reliance Jio’s quarter
Reliance Jio is expected to post approximately 3.3% sequential revenue growth in Q3FY26, supported by strong net subscriber additions of around 8.4 million across wireless and home broadband segments. Analysts expect Jio to continue benefiting from 5G adoption, fixed wireless access (FWA) rollouts and machine-to-machine (M2M) connections, with data usage growth remaining structurally strong.
“We expect Jio’s Arpu to grow 0.4% q-o-q to Rs 212.4 (from Rs 211.4) due to upgrades. Further, Jio’s net subscribers gain (including FTTH/UBR/5G FWA and M2M) is likely to be robust at 8.4 million versus gain of 8.3 million subscribers in Q2FY26. Strong traction in FTTH/UBR/5G FWA additions is likely to continue with addition of around 2.6 million subscribers in Q3FY26,” JM Financial analysts said.
Bharti Airtel to deliver a strong performance
Bharti Airtel is expected to deliver the strongest performance among the three operators, with 4.5% sequential growth in consolidated revenue projected for Q3FY26. Its India business is expected to post revenue growth in the range of 1.7% to 2.6%.
Growth is being driven by healthy mobile broadband additions, rising postpaid penetration and continued traction in the home broadband segment. Operating leverage from these segments is expected to support Ebitda growth marginally ahead of revenue, resulting in a modest sequential improvement in margins.
“Sequential 2.4% Arpu growth should be led by elimination of entry-level plan,” analysts from Ambit Capital observed. JM Financial analysts expect Airtel’s Arpu to increase to Rs 259 from Rs 256 in Q2FY26.
Vodafone Idea is expected to report a muted quarter, with brokerage estimates ranging from a marginal sequential decline in revenues to a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase in earnings. “We estimate revenue growth of 0.4% q-o-q, affected by a decrease in subscriber base partially offset by Arpu growth. Ebita margins to contract 10 basis points q-o-q. Key variables (will be) Progress on 5G rollout, fund-raise and progress on AGR plea,” experts from Nuvama said.
Arpu for the telco is expected to rise to Rs 169–170 (Q2: Rs 167), driven by recent investments in network upgrades and an improving subscriber mix.