Quick Commerce wars: Why Amazon and Flipkart network expansions can’t shake Blinkit’s 3 million order lead 

That said, industry experts do see the risk of the existing quick commerce players losing some market share as a result of the aggressive dark store addition by Flipkart and Amazon. 

Amarjeet Maurya, DVP Fundamental Research, Kotak Securities believes that “these incumbent players are likely to lose some market share as both companies expand rapidly from a relatively small base through aggressive dark store expansion.”

Can dark store additions be the real game changer? 

Flipkart Minutes currently operates around 875 dark stores and is expected to add nearly 100 stores every month, taking its network to around 1,500 stores by the end of CY26.

Amazon is also stepping up investments in India. Anand Rathi Investment Banking expects the company to invest around Rs 2,800 crore, expanding its quick commerce network to around 1,000 dark stores, and add nearly 100 large fulfillment centres across major cities.

IPO-bound Zepto also plans to use around Rs 1,629 crore from its proposed IPO, primarily to expand its dark store network and strengthen its technology infrastructure.

However, the combined Net Merchandise Value (NMV) of the three largest players increased 99% YoY in FY26 to Rs 92,000 crore. 

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Despite the push by Flipkart and Amazon on expansion of dark stores, Anand Rathi highlighted that Eternal’s Blinkit still processes the highest daily orders at around 3 million, while Zepto caters to around 2.3 million daily orders and Swiggy Instamart handles 1.2 million daily orders in Q4FY26.

Meanwhile, Flipkart Minutes processed only 0.7 million daily orders and Amazon Now processed 0.2 million daily orders in the same period.

Aakash Agrawal, Associate Director, Anand Rathi Investment Banking believes that players who are still strengthening their operations are likely to face more pressure than players like Blinkit and Zepto. Blinkit, has already established strong execution, scale and consumer recall, while Zepto has built an impressive network in key markets.

“In platform businesses, leadership tends to reinforce itself through better economics and stronger customer retention. That makes it harder for new entrants to disrupt established leaders quickly,” Agrawal of Anand Rathi noted.

Quick commerce competition may delay margin expansion

Can the increased competition lead to margin squeeze for the current big-ticket players like Zepto, Blinkit and Instamart?

Agrawal of Anand Rathi said that greater competition could delay margin expansion if incumbent players increase investments in customer acquisition, dark store expansion or pricing.

Kotak’s Maurya added that  pricing competition among QC firms remains intense because Amazon, Flipkart and Zepto continue offering discounts, cashback and free delivery. As compared to them, “Blinkit has remained disciplined on pricing and delivery fees, while Instamart has also become relatively more disciplined than newer entrants,” Maurya pointed out.

“Margins are likely to remain under pressure in the near term as companies continue investing aggressively. However, investors are increasingly rewarding sustainable category leadership over near-term profitability. Companies that use this investment phase to strengthen their network, improve customer retention and widen assortment are likely to emerge stronger once the market matures,” Anand Rathi’s Aakash Agrawal highlighted. 

However, the long-term earnings potential remains intact for scaled players. “The leading players have already achieved significant scale, and their profitability will increasingly be driven by operating leverage, advertising revenues and higher basket sizes,” he said.

Blinkit enjoys leadership premium in quick commerce

Though there is no clarity about how much market share these two players can gain, Samir Kumar, Country Manager, Amazon India set out an ambitious target. 

He stated, in an address to press on June 24, “Amazon Now is the fastest-growing e-commerce business unit in Amazon India’s history, with orders having doubled every quarter since launch. We are seeing a great response from customers, especially Prime members, who triple their shopping frequency once they start using Amazon Now.”

Analysts believe that Blinkit appears best positioned among all the QC players. “Blinkit appears best positioned today because leadership in platform businesses commands a disproportionate valuation premium. Markets consistently reward category leaders as they benefit the most from network effects, operating leverage and consumer preference. Blinkit currently combines scale, execution and brand strength,” Agrawal of Anand Rathi explained. 

Conclusion

Industry observers  highlighted that Amazon and Flipkart’s entry into quick commerce is more about  staying relevant amid changing consumer behaviour rather than taking the market share. 

“Quick commerce is therefore no longer a niche format; it is becoming an integral part of e-commerce. For Amazon and Flipkart, participation is less about attacking incumbents and more about ensuring they remain relevant as e-commerce itself evolves,” Anand Rathi’s Agrawal explained. 

They believe that the quick commerce industry is expected to see the entry of more small & medium players. The categories, that are being serviced, are also expanding, as a result, beyond groceries into beauty, electronics, home essentials and general merchandise, replacing a growing share of traditional e-commerce purchases.

However, over the near-term, they do not see Amazon and Flipkart as big threat to existing leaders like Blinkit.