India’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is facing a sharper squeeze outside the home, with consumers buying fewer and smaller packs, market researcher Numerator (formerly Kantar) said on Thursday. Food & beverage sales volumes outside of home fell 8.6% in the 12 months ending March 2026, according to Worldpanel data from Numerator, while value growth stood at 0.5% only for the period.
The pressure is particularly visible in mini metros and among solo consumption occasions, the agency said. Out-of-home volumes for food and beverages showed a decline of 10% for the 12-month period ending March 2026 in mini metros. The volume decline in metros is lower, at 7%, for the period under review.
On the value growth front, mini metros have shown a decline of 3% versus a growth of 3% seen in metros, Worldpanel data from Numerator shows. The findings are based on Worldpanel’s out-of-home panel, which has over 11,000 households reporting monthly.
Both the volume and value growth numbers have been calculated taking sales volume and value data as a moving annual total (MAT) over the preceding 12 months. Mini metros are towns with a population between 10 and 40 lakh. Metros are towns with a population of over 40 lakh.
“While the FMCG in-home consumption is growing, albeit at lower percentages, out-of-home consumption is declining,” K. Ramakrishnan, managing director, South Asia, Worldpanel by Numerator, said. Ramakrishnan says that higher socioeconomic consumers are also buying lower volumes as far as out-of-home consumption goes, though their spending in value terms remains broadly stable.
At a broader level, the weakness in out-of-home consumption comes as Numerator expects FMCG in-home consumption growth to slow to levels of around 4% in calendar 2026, from 4.8% reported in 2025, weighed by higher inflationary pressures, fuel prices and weather-related uncertainty.
In May, the agency had projected three scenarios – one where FMCG volume growth could slip to 3% in calendar 2026 if higher energy costs coincided with food inflation. The second scenario was where it would remain range-bound at 4-4.5% if elevated crude prices persisted backed by select pricing actions by companies. And the third scenario was where it could touch 5% if crude prices were in the $80-85 per barrel range.
The pressure is reflected in household spending behaviour. “We did something called as a Karcha study, in which we clearly noticed that average quarterly spends are actually coming down,” Ramakrishnan said. “This is just an indication of the fact that there is stress. This stress is perhaps what is seen in out-of-home consumption too.”
Food and beverage categories such as juice-based drinks, biscuits, cookies and ice creams are struggling, with consumers cutting both pack numbers and pack sizes. In contrast, chocolates, salty snacks and energy and sports drinks are showing stronger growth, he said.
The nature of out-of-home consumption is also changing. Solo food and beverage occasions accounted for 29% of consumption in MAT 2024 but fell to 23% in MAT 2026. Meanwhile, occasions involving five or more people increased from 34% to 43% in the same period.
Yet, solo consumption remains the largest share of out-of-home occasions. “The largest percentage still continues to be solo. More than half of the out-of-home occasions of buying are when you go alone and purchase a soft drink or biscuit pack and so on,” Ramakrishnan said.
When consumers go out in groups, they are not necessarily trading up to larger packs. Instead, they tend to buy multiple small packs, he said. “They are buying the Rs 10 pack. But all them in the group are having it,” he said.
There are pockets of opportunity though. Out-of-home spending spikes in the last week of the month, particularly among younger, lower-SEC consumers in larger towns, Ramakrishnan said, suggesting that leftover monthly budgets can translate into discretionary consumption.
Health is another emerging growth avenue. Dark chocolates, sports drinks, healthier beverages and snacks are gaining traction, including among younger and lower-affluent consumers. Brands such as Cadbury Bournville, Paper Boat, Tata Gluco+ and Too Yumm! are seeing growth through this positioning.
For in-home FMCG consumption, food remains the biggest pressure point, accounting for about 67% of the basket. “Home care is seeing good growth. Personal care is okay. Even beverages are okay. Food is where the stress is,” Ramakrishnan said.
Fuel costs are also encouraging consumers to buy only what they need rather than hold inventory. “People want to play safer and therefore they are not holding on to inventory of FMCG. So, they buy what is necessary. They reduce the number of trips,” he said.