Despite earlier optimism around a near-term reset, analysts now do not expect a tariff hike in the January–March quarter, pushing the next round of telecom pricing intervention back by at least a quarter, if not longer.
Experts cautioned that hopes around pricing have run ahead of on-ground developments. “Market expectations of price increase (both timing and magnitude) are too optimistic and see room for disappointments,” analysts from UBS said. The brokerage said that while government relief for Vodafone Idea and a potential Reliance Jio listing could eventually act as triggers, neither is imminent enough to support a March-quarter tariff hike.
Brokerages see tariff hikes only by mid-2026
Analysts from BofA Securities echoed the thesis. “We expect headline tariff hike in the mobile market in H2CY26,” they said, reinforcing the view that the coming quarters will remain pricing neutral. Jefferies, too, linked tariff action to structural catalysts rather than near-term competitive moves, projecting a tariff hike around mid-CY26 alongside Jio’s anticipated listing.
The delay in tariff hikes implies that near-term growth across the sector will continue to be driven by operating levers rather than pricing.
“In the absence of a price intervention, we expect low single digit ARPU and revenue growth for all three operators,” analysts from UBS said, reinforcing the view that competitive positioning will be shaped by subscriber mix rather than pricing. ICICI Securities added that Arpu (average revenue per user) growth is likely to remain driven by premiumisation benefits such as 2G to 4G/5G upgrades, higher postpaid net adds and monetisation of data. Home broadband, including fixed wireless access (FWA), is also expected to play a larger role given its higher Arpu profile.
Bharti Airtel and Jio are the only players in the FWA market, with Vodafone Idea having so far stated no intention of entering it. The cash-strapped telco has said that its investments will be focussed on expanding its 4G and 5G mobility network for now.
For Vodafone Idea, the absence of tariff support prolongs an already fragile recovery path. Analysts highlighted that subscriber losses are likely to persist in the near term, with Arpu improvements only partially offsetting the impact. Its absence in the FWA market, will impact its Arpu growth as well, analysts said.
AGR relief seen freeing up cash for VI’s capex
Analysts from UBS noted that as the government freezes Vodafone Idea’s AGR liabilities and reassesses dues, the telco would be able to step up network investments materially.
“We believe Vodafone Idea should be able to increase capex to Rs 10,00–14,000 crore during FY26–28 annually (as per management targets),” analysts said.
In the absence of tariff hikes over the next six months, competition between Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel is expected to remain centred on active subscriber additions, premium customer mix and broadband expansion. Experts noted that Jio continues to benefit from scale-driven additions, while Airtel’s momentum is supported by postpaid growth and home broadband.