Prices of popular weight loss drug semaglutide is set to plummet by over 65% once its patent expires in March this year, said analysts at India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). “The monthly treatment cost of semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) is about Rs 10,000-12,000. We are expecting the prices to go down to Rs 3,000-4,000 per month as we expect increased competition with 7-10 new players will be entering this segment. Globally, the growth of GLP-1 market is expected to be 34% over the next five years. Despite the heavy price erosion, the growth in Indian market is set to outpace the global trend,” said Krishnanath Munde, associate director at Ind-Ra.
From ₹12,000 to ₹3,000
GLP-1 is one of the fastest growing drug segment in India registering 12-fold jump in market size in four years to touch Rs 1,169 crore in December 2025. Even though Novo Nordisk’s Semaglutide will be under patent in many countries until the early 2030s, its patent will expire in several countries this year, including large countries such as India, Canada, China, Brazil and Turkey. As per IQVIA, with over 150 million patients, India offers an unmatched scale for generics and innovators.
“Over 10 companies have filed subject expert committee (SEC) submissions in India to conduct Phase III studies for semaglutide, with 7 of them focusing on oral semaglutide, seemingly looking to differentiate away from the most common presentation,” IQVIA note said.
Further, Ind-Ra expects Indian pharma sector to grow at around 10% year-on-year in FY27 led by healthy growth in the domestic and increased traction in the contract development and manufacturing organisation (CDMO) business. The ratings agency expects moderation in the US market led by lack of gRevlimid (used to treat blood cancer) contribution.
“Industry’s operating margins are expected to remain close to the historically elevated levels driven by robust domestic growth, complex product launches, favorable currency conditions, and stable API prices. However, US will remain a challenging market with USFDA inspections causing uncertainty,” the agency said.
Munde said that the focus of Indian pharma companies in the US will shift towards toward selective and complex products. “We expect lower filings by Indian firms for US generic drug approvals (ANDAs) going forward. The investment in R&D will continue to remain high with high levels of per-product R&D,” he said.
CDMOs and Zero-Duty US Exports
Meanwhile, India will continue to benefit from zero import duty on pharma exports to the US under the interim trade deal, leveraging the US’s reliance on Indian generics due to limited domestic capacity. “The CDMO sector offers a long-term strategic opportunity for Indian pharma, with companies investing heavily in capex to capitalise on order inflows and onshoring initiatives. Indian CDMO players are well-positioned due to strong compliance standards, scalable manufacturing capabilities, and cost-effective operations, making them a preferred China+1 destination,” the agency said.