Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders’ order book could expand nearly 14-fold from current levels if a series of submarine, frigate, vessel and destroyer programmes move ahead as anticipated. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL) could face a massive expansion in its order book over the next few years, with a potential pipeline of more than Rs 2.9 lakh crore, according to the brokerage firm Antique Stock Broking.

In its August 2026 report “India Defence Sector-Ordering to Gain Momentum,” the brokerage firm said the potential order funnel is almost 14 times MDL’s current order book. Converting the pipeline into actual orders will depend on several separate approvals and procurement decisions.

MDL’s current order book stands at around Rs 18,200 crore. The potential expansion is driven primarily by submarines, but the company also has opportunities across frigates, mine countermeasure vessels, landing platform docks and destroyers.

P75I submarine programme could be the first major trigger

The biggest near-term opportunity for MDL is the Project P75I submarine programme, estimated by the brokerage at around Rs 90,000 crore.

According to the brokerage, MDL may have completed contractual negotiations for the programme and is now awaiting final approval from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). The report expects the programme to be finalised “in the next few weeks”.

If approved, the P75I programme would represent a substantial addition to MDL’s existing order book and could become one of the company’s biggest order wins.

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Three more submarines could take the pipeline even higher

The submarine opportunity does not end with P75I. The brokerage said it is optimistic about an order for three additional submarines, mostly based on the TKMS design, being placed during the current financial year.

The report does not provide a separate value for this programme. However, it estimates that the P75I programme and the three additional submarines together could be worth Rs 1.3 lakh crore to Rs 1.4 lakh crore.

That would be more than seven times MDL’s current order book of around Rs 18,000 crore, according to the report. The potential submarine orders therefore form the core of the company’s near-term growth story.

Frigates, mine countermeasure vessels and landing docks add Rs 1.5 lakh crore

Beyond submarines, MDL has several large naval programmes in its medium-term pipeline. The brokerage firm expects three major RFPs during FY27 and FY28:

P17B Frigates: Rs 70,000 crore
Mine Counter Measure Vessels: Rs 40,000 crore
Landing Platform Docks: Rs 40,000 crore

For the Landing Platform Dock programme, MDL is expected to bid jointly with Swan Defence. Together, these three programmes represent a potential opportunity of around Rs 1.5 lakh crore.

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Destroyer programme could add another Rs 48,000 crore

Another potential opportunity could emerge in the destroyer segment. The report expects an Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) for destroyers in FY28. The programme could involve either next-generation destroyers or the P15-Charlie class.

The firm estimates this as another Rs 48,000 crore opportunity for MDL. This would further expand the company’s potential order funnel beyond the submarine and surface-vessel programmes already identified.

How the Rs 2.9 lakh crore funnel adds up

Taken together, the various opportunities identified by the brokerage take MDL’s potential order funnel to more than Rs 2.9 lakh crore.

Importantly, this is not a single pending contract. The figure represents multiple programmes at different stages of the procurement process, including contractual negotiations, expected RFPs and future AoN approvals.

That means the potential 14-fold increase in MDL’s order book is dependent on these programmes progressing on schedule. The brokerage nevertheless sees significant upside from the pipeline.

“Follow-on orders for three Scorpene submarines and six P75-I submarines can significantly elevate the order book and drive medium-term revenue growth,” the report said.

MDL looking beyond naval shipbuilding

The company is also looking to expand its presence beyond its existing naval shipbuilding business. According to the brokerage report, MDL is keen on building a higher presence in offshore oil and gas platforms. The company is also in discussions with Naval Group of France to build a Scorpene-class submarine for an unspecified Asian country, potentially opening an international opportunity beyond India’s domestic naval procurement programme.

Cost pressures remain a concern

While the order pipeline provides significant visibility, the brokerage also highlighted profitability-related challenges at MDL. The company’s Q4FY25 and Q1FY26 EBITDA margins were affected by large provisions linked to two orders – multi-purpose vessels and Coast Guard vessels.

However, the brokerage said MDL has created adequate provision buffers to account for potential cost escalations.

There could also be some upside if actual procurement costs for the major equipment required for these two orders come in below the company’s estimates. “If the actual cost of procurement of the main equipment for these two orders turn out to be lower than projected, then we may even see a write-back of provisions,” the report said.

(This article discusses potential order wins and revenue projections for Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL) based on a third-party report by Antique Stock Broking. While it highlights long-term defence procurement pipelines, these projections depend on multi-stage government approvals, procurement clearances, and contractual finalisations that carry inherent execution and timing risks. The estimates provided are derived from brokerage research and do not constitute direct investment advice, buy/sell recommendations, or price targets. Investors should perform independent research and consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions based on prospective order book projections.)