Inside IAF’s Rs 7.07 lakh crore wishlist, and the one aerospace giant poised to cash in

India’s Air Force is facing a large-scale modernisation requirement, with a pipeline of proposed aircraft, helicopters, drones and surveillance platforms that are estimated at Rs 7.07 lakh crore, according to Antique Stock Broking’s August report, India Defence Sector — Ordering to Gain Momentum.

The brokerage’s assessment points to a substantial ordering opportunity across India’s air power ecosystem, with programmes ranging from the LCA Tejas Mk2 and Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) to multi-role fighter aircraft, helicopters, airborne warning systems and armed drones.

This development comes against the backdrop of the Indian Air Force‘s stated objective of increasing its fleet strength to 42 squadrons, compared with its current strength of 31 squadrons. According to the report, the requirement for 11 additional squadrons, combined with the replacement of ageing Mirage 2000, Jaguar and MiG-21 squadrons, could provide Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) an opportunity to manufacture more than 300 aircraft over the next 10-15 years.

These aircraft would include the Tejas Mk-1A, Tejas Mk II and AMCA, the report said.

Rs 7.07 lakh crore air force pipeline

According to Antique Stock Broking’s assessment, it lists 15 programmes under what it describes as a “huge ordering pipeline given the depleting fleet size”. The largest component is the Multi Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme, estimated at Rs 1.6 lakh crore. The LCA Tejas Mk2 programme is estimated at Rs 1.184 lakh crore, while the AMCA programme is pegged at Rs 1 lakh crore.

The report also estimates Rs 86,400 crore for the Indian Multi Role Helicopter (IMRH), Rs 74,400 crore for the TEDBF programme, and Rs 42,200 crore for Multi-Role Carrier Borne Fighters (MRCBF).

Why the fleet needs replacement

The report links the large ordering requirement to the ageing fleet strength of the Indian Air Force. According to Antique’s report, currently, the IAF plans to increase its fleet to 42 squadrons from 31. It reported that the requirement is not limited to adding new squadrons. It also reported that the IAF also needs to replace existing squadrons operating Mirage 2000, Jaguar and MiG-21 aircraft.

For HAL, the report estimates this could translate into the production of 300-plus aircraft over the next 10-15 years, covering Tejas Mk-1A, Tejas Mk II and AMCA.

Tejas Mk2 and AMCA at the centre of the pipeline

The two major indigenous fighter programmes highlighted in the report are Tejas Mk2 and AMCA. The Antique report estimates the Tejas Mk2 programme in its main air-force pipeline at Rs 1.184 lakh crore, while AMCA is estimated at Rs 1 lakh crore. However, the report provides separate set of figures elsewhere.

In its section on domestic defence orders driven by indigenisation and geopolitical tensions, the brokerage says there are large programmes for 120 Tejas Mk2 aircraft worth Rs 70,000 crore, 143 ALH upgrades worth Rs 36,000 crore, and 400 IMRH aircraft worth Rs 1 lakh crore.

The report therefore contains different estimates for the Tejas Mk2 programme: Rs 1.184 lakh crore in Table 2 and Rs 70,000 crore in the separate section. The figures are presented as stated in the report. The ALH upgrade programme mentioned in the latter section also does not appear as a separate line item in the Rs 7.07 lakh crore air-force pipeline.

HAL order book reaches Rs 2.55 lakh crore

The potential aircraft pipeline comes as HAL’s existing order backlog has significantly expanded. According to the Antique’s report, HAL’s order backlog stood at Rs 2.545 lakh crore, at the end of FY26, compared with Rs 1.893 lakh crore a year earlier. The company received fresh orders worth Rs 97,000 crore during FY26.

Among the key orders cited by Antique Stock Broking were contracts for 97 LCA Mk1A aircraft for the IAF, six ALH Mk2 helicopters for the Indian Coast Guard, eight Do-228 aircraft for the ICG and 10 ALH Dhruv NG helicopters for Pawan Hans.

HAL expects another Rs 90,000 crore in orders

The orderbook is also expected to continue adding to HAL’s backlog. The report said HAL expects around Rs 90,000 crore of fresh orders, including RoH, over the next two years.

Potential contracts include 143 ALH helicopters for the Army and IAF, a Su-30 upgrade programme and the upgrade of 40 Do-228 aircraft, among other projects at various stages of approval.

Separately, Antique’s report said the Indian armed forces’ order pipeline looked robust, with orders worth Rs 2 lakh crore expected to be placed by 2030 in the context of HAL.

Delay in Tejas Mk1A deliveries

While the orderibook is expanding, the report also flags delays in the delivery of Tejas Mk1A aircraft. The delivery of the Tejas Mk1A has faced material delays over the past two years, primarily because of engine supply-side challenges and integration issues, the report said.

HAL has opened a third production line at Nasik, taking its annualised production capacity to 24 aircraft, the report said. On the engine supply side, GE had supplied five engines at the time of the report, with a sixth expected by April 2026 and another 15-20 engines expected in FY27.

The report said senior HAL and IAF management were expected to meet during August-September 2026 to review the final induction of the Tejas Mk1A.

If the process proceeds as expected, deliveries could begin from the second half of FY27, according to the report.

A long-term opportunity for India’s aerospace industry

The Rs 7.07 lakh crore pipeline outlined by Antique Stock Broking spans almost the entire spectrum of India’s military aviation requirements, from fighter aircraft and helicopters to airborne surveillance platforms, armed drones and training aircraft.

At its core is the need to both expand the IAF’s squadron strength and replace ageing aircraft. For HAL, the report identifies the potential for more than 300 aircraft to be produced over the next 10-15 years. Its existing backlog and expected fresh orders provide an indication of the scale of the opportunity already building around India’s aerospace sector.