After a long chaotic week, Pakistan Parliament has finally ousted the incumbent government led by Mr Imran Khan. Compared to India, this is the first time in the history of Pakistan that a sitting PM has been voted out, an indication that democracy in that country is finally getting back in.
What led to the downfall of Imran Khan?
He did not keep the promises he had made. He was completely unknown from the political perspective and was not associated with any political parties — Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). Since he had no historical baggage he failed to become popular in his country as a politician.
Who is calling the shots?
The Army in that country continues to call the shots. Though according to reports he was “selected’’ by them, the relations between him and the Pakistan Army’s leadership started getting strained over time. And he was eventually dropped by the Pakistan Army – a clear signal that no political leader can stay on top without the blessings and support of their Army leadership.
The impact of Russia-Ukraine crisis
This crisis has had a direct impact on Pakistan, as PM Khan decided to visit Russia at the time of the invasion. The trip to Moscow did not go well with the Biden administration, which according to reports had asked him not to go there to meet the Russian President Vladimir Putin. This cost him a lot. The world was not in favour of this too and this exposed his diplomatic naivete.
The India factor
While targeting his country’s military establishment at handling the security and international affairs, he had praised the foreign policy of India. And this praise irked Rawalpindi more. As is known India has always been a major factor in the politics of neighbouring Pakistan.
Return of the Sharifs. What does it mean for India?
After Prime Imran Khan has been ousted through the no-confidence vote, the leader of the Opposition Shehbaz Sharif is the front runner as the next Prime Minister of the neighbouring country.
Based on the information available in the public domain, little is known about the 70 year old younger brother of the three time prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Domestically, Shehbaz Sharif has a reputation of being an effective administrator, and he led the opposition’s attempt to topple the Imran Khan government.
According to experts, he has good relations with the top leadership of the Pakistan military which controls not only the foreign but also the defence policy of the country.
As a chief minister of Punjab Province in Pakistan, Mr Shehbaz Sharif displayed his administrative skills when he worked closely with China on various Beijing funded projects.
He has been quoted as saying that ties with the US are very important for Pakistan for better or worse. This comes as a complete opposite of Mr Khan’s relationship with the US administration.
In 1999, following a military coup in that country, Mr Shehbaz was imprisoned and he was exiled to Saudi Arabia. He then returned to his country in 2007 and entered the domestic politics scene when he took over as the chief of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz. In 2017, Nawaz Sharif was found guilty of not disclosing assets related to the revelations made by Panama Papers.
Nawaz Sharif is in London and was remembered in his brother’s no-confidence motion speech.
According to reports, Nawaz Sharif has always been supportive of improving relations with India.
Will it help this time? Only, time will tell.
Why? “Till the time Pakistan does not stop terrorists attacking Indian from its territory, there cannot be business as usual,” said a senior officer.