With troops of India and China locked in a 34 month long standoff along the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh there is a risk of armed confrontation between the two sides, states an intelligence report released by the US.
According to the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community report, which was released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence earlier this week, the two countries have been engaged in border talks at bilateral level and have resolved border points. However, the relations between the two will remain strained following the major clash between the forces of both India and China in 2020, when India had lost 20 personnel.
The report has pointed out that previous standoffs between Indian Army and the Chinese PLA have shown that constant low-level friction on the LAC has the possibility to escalate swiftly. The intelligence report has indicated since there is a risk of armed conflict between India and China it might involve direct threat to the US and it has called for intervention.
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What does the report state?
The report comes close on the heels of external affairs minister Dr S Jaishankar telling his Chinese counterpart that the state of relations between the two countries is “abnormal’’. He had a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting (FMM) in New Delhi last week in New Delhi.
India’s position has been that there cannot be any normal ties with China unless there is peace and tranquility in the border areas.
The report has pointed out that President Xi Jinping has started his third term as China’s leader. And the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will work towards pushing Taiwan on unification and to undercut the US influence. To pursue global influence, Beijing according to the intelligence report combining growing military power with its diplomatic, technological and economic influence to further strengthen the CCP rule. The report has also said that China will try securing what it assumes as its sovereign territory.
The report also states that in an attempt to accomplish its goals, although probably not without significant cost to itself, China has the capability to leverage its dominant positions in key global supply chains.
India-Pakistan
The US intelligence report has also raised red flags related to the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan. And has expressed concern that the crisis between the two sides is of particular concern as there is a risk of it being escalated.
Following both sides’ renewal of ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) in early 2021, both India and Pakistan are more inclined to reinforce the calm in their relationship presently.
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi
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US & China
The report has highlighted the tension between the US and China and states that the CCP will continue with its efforts to achieve President Xi’s vision of making the country a major power not only on the world stage but in east Asia too. And at the same time leaders of China will seek opportunities to reduce tensions with the US, when they believe it suits their interests.