By Dr (Prof) Nishakant Ojha
There is a new world order that is emerging amongst the top fifty nations, in post COVID and Post Ukraine-Russia war. In the last 2 years, the world is seeing a rapid change in the age-old alignments, there is an increasing permeability between various top nations solely due to economic synergies & mutual interdependence.
Strong nations have found themselves vulnerable during COVID war, when their medical services got over stretched, weaker but emerging nations outperformed them and fought COVID war with conviction & focus. India has done remarkable work in controlling COVID not only in India but throughout the world by helping weaker nations with vaccines, medical equipment, and technology. This has created immense goodwill amongst a large majority of Nations which form a part of nonaligned countries historically.
The US is facing one of the rarest forms of economic pressures and having one of the highest percentages of inflation. Now, World is experiencing conventional American approaches to reassert itself into global politics. It is not willing to accept the rising economies and new emerging non-US power centres. After the disintegration of the USSR, the world has seen the US as the topmost power for over 3 decades.
Global supremacy is being decided through technological strength. New age warfare is becoming more informational warfare where few other nations are posing a big challenge to the global leader.
Other competing arenas include arms, oil, energy, Pharma. New challenges have come up in the last decade which are led by China.
Russia has been progressing rapidly in the field of oil and gas. The US seems to be lagging Russia in the field of Oil and Gas in terms of cost and logistics, while Russia seems to be poised to claim its dominance in the Arctic region in terms of Oil, Logistics and poses a new level of dominance over the US and EU combined. The US was slowly losing its grip over NATO allies which it is trying to reassert and regain through the recent war between Ukraine & Russia. While it’s Ukraine that is fighting a frontal war with Russia, in the backdrop it’s the NATO nations led by the USA. This is the new age Cold war, which is indirectly being fought between USA and Russia, while the NATO nations, EU Council and Ukraine are playing their own role.
The South China Sea has remained a potential flash point between various Asean Nations and China. Indo-Pacific informal discussion group QSD-Quad was created to deal with the issues in the South China Sea in which India is one of the key partners along with the USA, Japan & Australia.
If we observe India’s responses to COVID global Pandemic, Afghanistan crisis, then Ukraine war crisis, we see a nonaligned India coming up that is assertive and balanced in its approach. Even during the Israel-Palestine crisis, its balanced diplomacy was evident. The recent voting pattern during the UN resolution against Russia shows this new pattern clearly. Oil specific nations are rethinking their old toes with the US and developing a balanced approach in the Ukraine-Russian crisis. They are not getting involved in any of the NATO issues, as they are neither invested or a party to any situation invoking NATO.
Even the recent Virtual Quad meeting showed no reference to the Russia-Ukraine issue. The entire agenda was focussed on Pacific in Quad.
It is evident that the USA is utilising the NATO channel to assert itself to Russia and the EU both. While its utilising QUAD to assert itself to increasing Chinese influence in the Pacific. If we check the trade figures of the USA and Russia, and between the USA and China, we do not see any drop in the trade numbers while tensions are high both in Ukraine and Taiwan issue with Russia and China, respectively.
India is adopting a country specific diplomacy with each nation globally based on strong one to one ties purely based on the philosophy of equal nations. This has worked well for India in recent years. India is no longer seen as an active member of any regional or global group, which makes it a best nation to align with each nation without any regional prejudices. It does not seek any support from any alliance or group for any of its open issues with its neighbours.
It is a member or an invitee to most regional alliances and is seen with respect globally. Its actions and policy are being looked up by most nations with respect.
In the post Ukraine World, no matter whatever be the result of the war, when all guns go silent, one thing has emerged clearly.
This world shall get divided into two technology groups again. One group shall be led by USA for sure; either China or Russia could lead the other group
In this scenario, its critical for India, not to be a part of any of the two group but maintain good relations with both sides, i.e., with both USA and Russia in issue-based synergies and with a clarity that it will not accept any sort of pressures and not compromise on any matter related to its national interest in international framework.
This is where self-reliance on all fields of economy has become very critical for India. All national programs being executed in this direction are on the right track. India has its own legacy issues to tackle and avoiding spending energies & resources into matters where it is not directly involved as a first party is a right policy is the current and midterm global scenario. Finally, it shall have to be ever ready to face its legacy border issues with its neighbours without depending on any other nation.
That is the non-alignment in the true sense, where it can form nation to nation bonding which can benefit India and its partner nation equally.
This policy is yielding fruits already. Lastly, India is working on a dynamic diplomatic policy framework where its strategic & tactical initiatives show its assertiveness to the world clearly.
(The author is Eminent Expert in Counter Terrorism (West Asia& Middle East. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).