With hostilities raging across West Asia sending global markets into a tizzy, Indian brands across categories are increasingly apprehensive of the fallout of a protracted war. One of the first casualties is expected to be their advertising and marketing budgets, as brands in sectors such as aviation, tourism, jewellery and FMCG recalibrate their marketing plans to deal with the broader economic strain.
Experts say a big chunk of the summer spending of around `15,000 crore by sectors such as beverages, ice-cream, consumer durables and travel spend is at stake. Executives have indicated a potential revenue impact of 10-15% in Q4 FY26 if tensions escalate.
The conflict has already disrupted the critical “Ramadan rush”, a peak period for high-end retail and associated promotional spending, in certain regional markets. More importantly, it could also end up shaving `250–300 crore in Indian Premier League (scheduled to begin later this month) ad spending. Over the years, Gulf-based real estate firms, airlines, tourism boards, oil majors, and logistics and retail companies have steadily increased their presence during the tournament. There’s a big question mark over their spending plans this year.
Just weeks before the war broke out, WPP Media predicted that Indian advertising will grow by 9.7% to cross `2 lakh crore in 2026. Experts say that projection will need to be reworked though the numbers are likely to see “a mild softening” rather than “a free fall”.
A marketing executive with an FMCG company says he is holding back a couple of summer campaigns that were to kick off this month. “We’re not cancelling yet or making any major shifts, but simply keeping some campaigns on hold. We’re focusing more on channels like social media and e-commerce, but toning down any exuberant messaging that may come off as insensitive,” he says.
Kartik Mehta, CBO & head of Asia for Channel Factory, says that while no campaigns have been postponed or called off yet for his clients, a prolonged war may compel marketers to hold off all ad spending until things normalise. “Our focus will be to first protect brands from any reputational damage by ensuring ads appear in a suitable environment. It is important to ensure that the messaging is sensitive and doesn’t affect consumer sentiment negatively,” says Mehta, adding that he is currently working with brands across India and the Middle East by focussing more on advertising-led business outcomes.
“There isn’t a budget cut, but the overall budget is increased to sail through the challenging period. The idea is to be cautious and increase or decrease the spends based on the market response,” says John Alukkas, managing director, Jos Alukkas.
Navigating uncertainty
Shrenik Gandhi, co-founder & CEO, White Rivers Media, points out that historically, advertising has never disappeared during uncertain periods. This was the case even during the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Like many agencies working across regions, our approach during periods of geopolitical uncertainty is to stay operationally flexible rather than react to any one market in isolation. That includes prioritising media channels and formats that allow quicker optimisation, maintaining shorter planning cycles, and ensuring budgets can be reallocated across markets if needed,” notes Gandhi.
Performance campaigns are being rolled out with much stricter monitoring and messaging is becoming more measured.
“We’re moving into a tighter brand-safety and approvals mode. We’re advising clients to avoid humour or high-energy celebration, and keep messaging aligned to reassurance and utility. From a media perspective, we’re recommending flexible budgets, shorter booking windows, and faster optimisation loops so spends can be scaled up or down quickly,” explains Yasin Hamidani, director, Media Care Brand Solutions.
Agencies are also creating contingency plans to tackle challenges in operations and advertising revenue growth. Says Nimit Chaudhry, founder & CEO, strongmetrics, for whom the Middle East is a significant growth market,
“We’re adapting with market diversification by shifting our operational focus towards high-growth, stable regions like Southeast Asia and the domestic Indian market to offset potential lulls from the MENA region.”
The company is also leveraging its remote-work infrastructure to ensure that West Asia operations remain functional and supported by its global hubs, regardless of local physical disruptions.