For 2026-27, the government has projected dividends of 3.16 lakh crore from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and public sector banks, 4% higher than the revised estimate of3.06 lakh crore in FY26.
Of this, the RBI had contributed 2.68 lakh crore in FY26, while banks added 36,000 crore.
The FY26 dividend figure was later revised upward from Rs 2.56 lakh crore, a 19% surge.
Realistic Revenue Estimates
“The government has budgeted an RBI dividend broadly in line with last year, around Rs 2.8 lakh crore, with an additional Rs 40,000 crore assumed from PSU banks. This makes the overall dividend estimate of Rs 3.16 lakh crore fairly realistic,” said Gaura Sengupta, chief economist, IDFC First Bank.
She believes that, compared to last year, the revenue side assumptions are much more realistic. “The chances of the RBI dividend exceeding the budgeted estimate are not very high unless dollar selling picks up sharply in the last quarter,” Sengupta added.
Supporting Income Factors
While RBI’s earnings from foreign exchange transactions may be lower this year due to reduced dollar selling, higher interest income from its larger balance sheet and G-Sec holdings should support the dividend, and therefore, market and economists don’t see significant risk to the government estimate.
Apart from the dividend from RBI, PSU banks and financial institutions, the government is also expecting a dividend of 75,000 crore (RE for FY26: Rs 71,000 crore) from Public Sector Enterprises, taking its overall income from dividends at3.91 lakh crore.
“Overall, the government has taken a more pragmatic approach this time. On both tax and non-tax revenues, the estimates are far more realistic compared to previous years,” said Sengupta.