In the run-up to the Union Budget 2022, BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 have been trading volatile. In the week so far, BSE Sensex has lost over 4 per cent to day’s low of 56,628.36, while NSE Nifty 50 index plunged 3.7 per cent to trade at 16,921. On the Union Budget 2022 day, 1st February, the 30-share index Sensex may reclaim 60,000, Nifty 18,000, and Bank Nifty may clinch 38,500 levels, said Sanjiv Bhasin, Director, IIFL Securities, in an interview with Surbhi Jain of Financial Express Online. Ahead of Budget, Bhasin is bullish on stocks of Axis Bank, HCL Tech, Eicher Motors, among others. Bhasin also sees a post Budget rally in the Indian stock markets, where headline indices may test new all-time highs. Here are the edited excerpts.
How to trade Nifty, Bank Nifty ahead of Budget 2022?
Buy the Bank Nifty as it has outperformed the Nifty 50 by over 2%.However, use this opportunity or global scare to buy both the indices. You should be buying both the Nifty Bees & Bank Bees as they are exchange traded ETFs which allow you to buy the index and are listed on the NSE.
Where do you see Sensex, Nifty, Bank Nifty on Budget day?
Indian stock markets are likely to be volatile with the BSE Sensex at 60,000, Bank Nifty at 38,500 and Nifty 50 index at 18,000.
What are the stocks to buy, sell or hold ahead of Budget 2022?
Most IT stocks are in oversold territory but use rallies to lighten up as over-owned and the debacle of the new age fintech stocks which are newly-listed seeing some money being taken off from over priced large cap IT stocks.
Which stocks and sectors would remain in focus on Union Budget 2022 day?
Stocks from sectors such as infrastructure, banks, PLI-related new entrants like auto, engineering and construction are likely to remain in focus on Union Budget 2022 day.
Which key Budget announcements may surprise markets this year?
Some lowering of LTCG (long-term capital gain tax), more capex on infrastructure with deficit may be getting more stretched as the Government lays emphasis on jobs, industries, PLI, and healthcare.
Following a pre budget fall in Nifty, Sensex; do you see markets making new highs post Budget?
Yes, the global scare was more with the rise in yields, higher inflation and pullback in tapering with the US Federal Reserve behind the curve in analysing inflation due to demand-supply mismatch. However, most are “missing the woods for the trees” as growth in the US economy is the strongest in over 5 years and higher cost of money will get absorbed after the initial shock seen in global markets. India is and will be an outperform purely on the back of the rise in indices witnessed by local participation of retail putting his money where his mouth is. Foreign outflows have seen all money coming after November 2020 being taken back. This sets us up for a solid bout of buying as money returns into emerging markets with Indian corporate results setting the ‘cat amongst the pigeons’ as new highs come sooner than expected.