Budget 2018: The Economic Survey report 2017-18 on Monday was tabled in both houses of the Parliament by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley ahead of the Union Budget 2018, in which it was projected that the economic growth for the fiscal year 2018-19 will be between 7% and 7.5%, while it also flagged concerns over rising crude oil price. The Economic Survey report 2017-18 also said that private investment is poised to rebound in the fiscal year 2019 and employment, education and agriculture will remain the focus in the medium term. The full Economic Survey is available at www.indiabudget.gov.in.
Here’s what the Economic Survey had for the country, the economy and the common man:
1. For the country: The Economic Survey 2018 states that there has been a large increase in registered indirect and direct taxpayers. As per the Economic Survey 2018, the formal non-agricultural payroll is much greater than believed. More than 30% when formality is defined in terms of social security (EPFO/ESIC) provision. More than 50% when defined in terms of being in the GST net.
2. For the economy: In the last three fiscal years, India experienced a positive term of trade shock. But in the first three quarters of 2017-18, oil prices have been about 16 percent greater in dollar terms than in the previous year. It is estimated that a $10 per barrel increase in the price of oil reduces growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points, increases WPI inflation by about 1.7 percentage points and worsens the Current Account Deficit (CAD) by about $9-10 billion dollars. Economic Survey calls for “policy vigilance” in the coming year if high oil prices persist or stock prices correct sharply.
3. For the common man: Economic Survey 2018 states that there has been a substantial avoidable litigation in the tax arena which government action could reduce. The apparel sector has immense potential to drive economic growth, increase employment, and empower women in India. The Survey observes that the economy has witnessed a gradual transition from a period of high and variable inflation to more stable prices in the last four years.
Economic Survey is an annual document of the Ministry of Finance, Government of India, and reviews the developments in the Indian economy over the previous 12 months, summarises the performance on major development programs, and highlights the policy initiatives of the government and the prospects of the economy in the short to medium term.
The Budget 2018 comes against the backdrop of fiscal concerns from the 3.2% target of the Budgetary allocation, along with rallying crude oil prices on the global front. Arun Jaitley will present the Union Budget 2018 for the fiscal year 2018-19 on February 1. This will be the first Budget in the post- GST era and the last full budget from Arun Jaitley before the General Election in 2019.