With a 53.4% chance of reaching the semifinals and a 20.9% chance of winning this year’s FIFA World Cup, Brazil stands with the highest probability of winning the match, as per Serasa Experian’s innovation laboratory, DataLab. Moreover, Brazil is followed by Argentina with a 14.3% chance of winning, France with 11.4%, Spain with nine percent, and Germany with 3.4%, the company added.
“A data set containing all the results of the last three World Cup cycles were used: countries involved in the match, dates, type of competition,” the company said.
For qualifying in the knockout stages, the company found that Brazil has the highest probability at 97.48%, followed by Argentina with 96.1% probability, France with 93.4% probability, Spain with 89.6% probability, and Germany a 69.6% probability.
The company claimed that the information was processed with recommendation systems and deep learning using a similarity metric that indicates how much two teams are similarly based on the history of match results. Moreover, it added that the company incorporated this data representation and used a boosting model to train a machine learning system to be able to predict the probability of the outcome of each match considering the current scenario, that is, the period before the championship.