Electric Vehicle (EV) sales in the US, China and Europe will outstrip all other engines five years sooner than previously expected, according to new EY study. The figures come as EY launches the EY Mobility Lens Forecaster, an AI-powered forecast modelling tool that provides an outlook for the supply and demand of mobility products and services through 2050.
The predictions show that, by 2028, EV sales in Europe will surpass those of other powertrains, a trend that will be repeated in China by 2033 and in the US by 2036. The analysis shows that, by 2045, non-EV sales will shrink to less than 1%of overall sales.
In terms of EV sales volumes, Europe is expected to lead the way until 2031, with China taking the lead from 2032 to 2050.
Randall Miller, EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Leader, said changing consumer attitudes, climate focused regulations and technology evolution are about to change the landscape of vehicle buying.
“While the auto industry has begun to more fully embrace the move towards electrification, the impact of this seismic shift is arriving sooner than many expected,” Miller said.
A new market
As the global auto industry recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic, it will be met by a new group of car buyers. Many people who had rejected ownership in lieu of ride sharing and public transport have reassessed in the shadow of the pandemic.
The EY Mobility Consumer Index published in November showed that one-third of non-car owners planned to buy a car in the next six months (19% plan to buy new, 12% used cars), and about half of those are millennials.
Among both current car owners and non-car owners, 30% said they’d prefer a non-ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle for their next purchase. In terms of regulatory support, the new US administration’s announcements include continuity of EV buying incentives and the development of charging infrastructure.
In Europe, incentives to purchase EVs are part of Covid-19-related relief measures in France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Austria. China continues support for EVs through regulatory measures, wide product range and increasing customer demand. From the supply perspective, automakers have begun to set own twilight dates for ICE vehicles, in favour of EVs.
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