Surjit S Bhalla

Articles By Surjit S Bhalla

151 Articles

Why is Narendra Modi winning elections? Has a lot to do with incomes of the poor; read all about it

In a highly personalised attack on finance minister Arun Jaitley, ex-finance minister Yashwant Sinha made the following claims about the Indian economy (under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi).

Narendra Modi, Narendra Modi in 2019 elections, Yashwant Sinha, Yashwant Sinha statement, Arun Jaitley, Yashwant Sinha on Jaitley, GDP growth, GDP growth in BJP rule, P Chidambaram, demonetisation, GST implementation News

No, it’s not Demonetisation, nor is it the Rupee; here is the real reason for GDP crash

Inflation is down by 700 bps since 2013, and policy rates have declined by 200 bps—and you are still wondering why GDP growth is slow?

Inflation, GDP, demonetisation, gdp growth, rbi, pm narendra modi, pm modi, gdp, india gdp, demonetisation results, rbi report, rbi report on demonetisation News

Madness in monetary policy? Surjit Bhalla explains why that is so

It is more than four years since my column “Tell me I am Mad,” The Financial Express, June 22, 2013, was published.

Opinion News

Why RBI and Monetary Policy Committee must leave their ego at home

Times have changed, and we have to change accordingly. It wasn’t so long ago that the central concern of RBI, and the major macroeconomic concern in India, was inflation.

At its second bi-monthly monetary policy review of the fiscal on June 7, the RBI maintained status quo on its short-term rate for lending to commercial banks, at 6.25 per cent. News

Old elite will not give up privileges, they will try to derail transformation happening in India, says Surjit Bhalla

The old elite cannot be expected to give up their privileges so easily. They will try to derail the structural transformation happening in India & object at every turn.

demonetisation, cash transaction, economy News

Madhya Pradesh farmers protest: Riots amidst rising prosperity? Surjit Bhalla says politics explains phenomenon

It is politics that best explains the phenomena of farmer riots amidst rising prosperity of farmers

Madhya Pradesh farmers protest, Maharashtra, Demonetisation,  2017 farmer raiots, farmers suicide, RBI, INDIA, BEEF,  farmer agitation circa 2017 News

RBI MPC: Surjit Bhalla looks at logical ways to lower rates

The MPC meets June 6 and 7, for their fifth meeting to decide the course of monetary policy and exchange rates.

rbi mpc, mpc, mpc meet, mpc meeting, what is mpc, all about mpc, rbi, rbi news, rbi latest news, rbi ratecut, reserve bank of india News

Three years of Narendra Modi government: Significant change in economy seen, but India must be vigilant, says Surjit Bhalla

In the movie The Graduate, Dustin Hoffman gets advice about the future from an experienced old hand. Only one word was needed to describe the future: Plastic. Narendra Modi-led BJP has just finished three years and I have two

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Inflation forecast: Enough of RBI’s Elevator Economics, says Surjit Bhalla

The Indian economy has likely gone through a mega structural break experience via demonetisation.

Economy News

Cow vigilantism or Muslim-hunting: Narendra Modi has nothing to gain, everything to lose from divisive agenda

PM Narendra Modi has nothing to gain and everything to lose by pursuing a divisive social agenda; he has to worry both about the enemy within, and the enemy outside

Opinion News

Time has come for 25 bps inter-meeting RBI rate hike to 6.5%: Surjit Bhalla

With CPI inflation at near-historic lows, according to the ‘RBI law of mean reversion’, the future means high inflation

Opinion News

UP elections 2017: Math suggests BJP set to win a comfortable majority, says Surjit Bhalla

There was near universal expectation by politicians, pollsters, opinion and exit polls that the BJP, eighteen months after their resounding Lok Sabha victory, would romp home in majority glory. It was not to be. Almost the en

Opinion News

RBI’s obstinacy in cutting rates is not economic logic: Surjit Bhalla

Amidst much fanfare, and great expectations, India joined the rest of the world by forming a monetary policy committee (MPC) to decide on matters pertaining to monetary policy.

Opinion News

Union Budget 2017 is probably most brilliant document since the 1991 Budget: Surjit Bhalla

The Budget has been extra-careful and conservative about the impact of DeMo on the economy. It is very likely that GDP growth for FY17 will close in on a number above 7%. It is probably the most brilliant economic and politic

Budget 2019 News

Budget 2017: Unless Narendra Modi govt changes its Nehruvian mindset on criminal taxation level, growth will remain a pipe-dream, says Surjit Bhalla

There has been a lot of well-intentioned talk about the need for employment growth in manufacturing in India. Most of us (including myself) have attributed the low rate of employment growth to antique, and counter-productive,

Budget 2019 News

Budget 2017: Cut in effective tax rate to 20% is proper follow-through to demonetisation

A meaningful reduction in effective corporate tax rate, to around 20%, is the correct follow-through to demonetisation

Budget 2019 News

Budget 2017: How Arun Jaitley can cut everyone’s tax burden, pay the poor and still be revenue neutral

Jaitley can cut everyone’s tax burden, even pay the poor, and be revenue-neutral by cutting sops

Budget 2019 News

Income Tax revolution: Budget 2017 offers opportunity for a flat income tax rate and negative one for poor

The Union Budget provides the opportunity for a flat income tax rate and a negative income tax for the poor

Tax reforms in 2016, local environment, global environment, Start-up India, Demonetisation, Real Estate Investment Trusts News

Budget 2017: Basic income for bottom 50% of public will be a political master-stroke

What the prime minister’s speech of December 31, 2016, made clear was that India was firmly moving away from the anti-poverty policies pursued by all previous governments.

Budget 2019 News

Demonetisation is a Big Bang reform: Surjit Bhalla

One of the more endearing, and enlightening, acronym that the Indian upper class has come up with is PLUs.

Opinion News

The way BJP govt goes post-demonetisation will define India for decades; Surjit Bhalla explains

Conservative intellectual rightness same as classic liberal thought; includes Right liberals, but not Left intellectuals

Opinion News

Demonetisation demystified: Greater the drivel against its success, better the prospects of a demonetised India

The greater the drivel against its likely success, the better the prospects of a demonetised India

Opinion News

Narendra Modi’s demonetisation drive likely a big success in garnering tax revenue

The rumours of even a 1 ppt decline in GDP growth for 2016-17 are vastly exaggerated—and don’t have much basis in either logic or fact

Opinion News

National anthem: The Constitution is a lot more liberal than the interpretation by Supreme Court justices

The Constitution is a lot more liberal than the interpretation placed on it by Supreme Court justices

Opinion News

What will demonetisation cost to the economy be? Check out the short-term effect

It is now more than two weeks since 8/11, and the government has stopped exchanging notes for cash. Politicians and analysts alike are worried about the short-term costs to the economy, and especially the effects on the poor,

What will demonetisation cost to the economy be? Check out the short-term effect

Demonetisation effect: A big bang or a big thud?

The notion that there will be no benefits from demonetisation will be right if the govt cuts the tree and ignores the roots

Demonetisation effect: A big bang or a big thud?

Black money: Demonetisation drive bigger move than GST, but bold tax reforms required now

The anti-black money initiative is bigger than GST, but bold tax reforms needed to curtail future generation

Blackmoney News