Remembering Sunil Jain: A model human, and model journalist
What made me admire Sunil was that he was first and foremost an evidence-based journalist—a relative rarity in India, and the world
No country for inflation targeting?
A detached reading of the evidence suggests inflation targeting wasn’t responsible for the decline in India’s inflation—It contributed to a decline in GDP growth
Budget FY22 lays the foundation for future growth with reforms
Sitharaman has faced down the critics with performance. Breaking from the conventional past is very courageous—and effective in achieving India’s destiny
NFHS – Ideology trumps analysis?
The newly released NFHS data reveals large improvements in welfare for Indian children, women, and households. Then why the deep angst?
No intellectual basis to the opposition to new farm laws
That there is no defense for old farm laws is vividly illustrated by the hypocrisy, and intellectual dishonesty, of those defending the richest farmers in India
Fighting Covid-19 pandemic: Show us the evidence that lockdowns work
Lockdowns were an unnatural experiment, and they have not worked in achieving their major health objective of fewer infections or slower pace of infections
India’s Covid package combines short-term macro policy with long-term structural reforms
The Indian Covid response package combines short-term macro policy with long-term structural reforms, and at around 5% of GDP, one of the largest in the world
No proof required: Cut tax rates, increase tax revenue
Contrary to forecast expectations, the corporate tax cut of September 2019 have led to an increase in tax revenues, and given a boost to economic growth
Flawed findings show NSO needs reforms
Sometimes, a proud nation has to recognise that its statistical institution is failing the most basic of credibility “smell” tests; and is in dire need of reform.
Corporate tax cut: The making of history
We believe that there is a strong possibility of a final corporate tax cut with the adoption of the direct tax code (DTC).
Arun Jaitley: A politician savant
We will all miss Arun Jaitley very much—for his non-partisan friendship, his intellect & his immense contributions to policy making. Above all, he was a brilliant ideas man
No economy has sustained GDP growth with a real policy rate above 1.75%
Is India as different as claimed by “experts”? My own experience, and interpretation, is that India is very different because the experts (perhaps including those at the Central Bank) look at monetary policy very differen
Borrow in foreign currency, profit from market imperfections
Sooner India engages in foreign currency borrowing, the quicker it can profit from this market imperfection, shows cross-country evidence for the last twenty years.
Survey data or economic environment can’t be interpreted the same way as halcyon days
In this article, I would like to point to some of the perils of poor data quality and often erroneous interpretation.
Budget 2019: Nirmala Sitharaman shows how future budgets should be
Budget 2019 India: Excise taxes went up for those the FMs wanted to punish, and down for those they wanted to encourage.
Arvind Subramanian’s method suggests Germany overestimates GDP the most
Arvind Subramanian’s method of estimating GDP suggests that Germany overestimates the most; brazil underestimates GDP the most—India only a mild outlier.
Reinterpreting GDP growth: Is it possible that no one knew about over-estimation?
GDP revisions undergo revisions, around the world, of 10-50 basis points, but a revision of 250 bp, annually, is unheard of
What explains Earthquake Modi?
There is no going back; and the people believe Modi and trust Modi to deliver. That is why this election was about the delivery, and promise, of the Modi government.
Lok Sabha election 2019: Is this the beginning of the end of Congress dynastic rule?
By the strangest of coincidences, the election forecast (for BJP and Congress alone) contained in my book Citizen Raj (and reproduced here), the exit polls seemed to centre around 270-280 seats for the BJP and around 50-60 se
Will 2019 election be another black swan event for Modi?
Opinions vary, but not the reality. 2014 election was contested around the economy—2019 election is being fought along similar lines. Will the result be similar?
A Rashomon election: How ideology blinds people from seeing plain facts
NSSO should be again made a leader in the provision and quality of statistics, as it was under the chairmanship of the late PC Mahalanobis in the 1950s and1960s.
Is India’s unemployment really at a 45-year high? Here’s what data reveals
Indian institutions are operating with the same mindset and technology and outlook that the pioneers did 70 years ago. But the world, and technology, has moved on. Not us, though.
Flawed Nyay programme is political hara-kiri by Congress
The Congress will succeed in political hara kiri—it would upset, and alienate, almost half the population, from the 21st to 65th percentile.
Congress confused over NYAY; scheme cutoff nothing but updated Tendulkar formula
Congress consulted extensively with economists to define minimum income for NYAY—-all it did, really, was to update the tendulkar poverty line to today’s prices
Fact vs fiction — ASI data sheds light on job growth
On March 15, 2018, 108 economists and scientists released a letter titled, Economic Statistics in Shambles, published in the prestigious Economic and Political Weekly, that accused the Modi government of suppressing data. It
Bad loser? Why Congress bickers about economic data
There is a change in the use of economic data since the 2014 election. Unlike before, misuse of economic data appears to be politically motivated.
Lok Sabha polls 2019: Congress ‘natural enemy’ of regional parties, alliance math is a road to nowhere
If the national partner is small and you are big (at a state level), it is a zero-sum game—the smaller party will lose.
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