Surjit S Bhalla

Articles By Surjit S Bhalla

150 Articles

No economy has sustained GDP growth with a real policy rate above 1.75%

Is India as different as claimed by “experts”? My own experience, and interpretation, is that India is very different because the experts (perhaps including those at the Central Bank) look at monetary policy very differen

economy, indian economy, GDP growth, Indian GDP growth, Monetary Policy, central bank News

Borrow in foreign currency, profit from market imperfections

Sooner India engages in foreign currency borrowing, the quicker it can profit from this market imperfection, shows cross-country evidence for the last twenty years.

Opinion News

Survey data or economic environment can’t be interpreted the same way as halcyon days

In this article, I would like to point to some of the perils of poor data quality and often erroneous interpretation.

data analysis, GDP growth, data collection, NSSO data, Central Statistics Office, NSSO employment surveys, socio economic, data policy  News

Budget 2019: Nirmala Sitharaman shows how future budgets should be

Budget 2019 India: Excise taxes went up for those the FMs wanted to punish, and down for those they wanted to encourage.

Budget 2019-20, Union Budget 2019 India News

Arvind Subramanian’s method suggests Germany overestimates GDP the most

Arvind Subramanian’s method of estimating GDP suggests that Germany overestimates the most; brazil underestimates GDP the most—India only a mild outlier.

Opinion News

Reinterpreting GDP growth: Is it possible that no one knew about over-estimation?

GDP revisions undergo revisions, around the world, of 10-50 basis points, but a revision of 250 bp, annually, is unheard of

The second point relates to GDP revisions involved with the base-year change from 2004-5 to 2011-12. News

What explains Earthquake Modi?

There is no going back; and the people believe Modi and trust Modi to deliver. That is why this election was about the delivery, and promise, of the Modi government.

Opinion News

Lok Sabha election 2019: Is this the beginning of the end of Congress dynastic rule?

By the strangest of coincidences, the election forecast (for BJP and Congress alone) contained in my book Citizen Raj (and reproduced here), the exit polls seemed to centre around 270-280 seats for the BJP and around 50-60 se

2019 election, lok sabha elections, exit poll, exit poll 2019, india, india elections, general elections, opinion news

Will 2019 election be another black swan event for Modi?

Opinions vary, but not the reality. 2014 election was contested around the economy—2019 election is being fought along similar lines. Will the result be similar?

Opinion News

A Rashomon election: How ideology blinds people from seeing plain facts

NSSO should be again made a leader in the provision and quality of statistics, as it was under the chairmanship of the late PC Mahalanobis in the 1950s and1960s.

Opinion News

Is India’s unemployment really at a 45-year high? Here’s what data reveals

Indian institutions are operating with the same mindset and technology and outlook that the pioneers did 70 years ago. But the world, and technology, has moved on. Not us, though.

Opinion News

Flawed Nyay programme is political hara-kiri by Congress

The Congress will succeed in political hara kiri—it would upset, and alienate, almost half the population, from the 21st to 65th percentile.

Opinion News

Congress confused over NYAY; scheme cutoff nothing but updated Tendulkar formula

Congress consulted extensively with economists to define minimum income for NYAY—-all it did, really, was to update the tendulkar poverty line to today’s prices

Congress, Congress NYAY, NYAY scheme, PAP, Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, P Chidambaram, congress scheme for poor, UPA government,  News

Fact vs fiction — ASI data sheds light on job growth

On March 15, 2018, 108 economists and scientists released a letter titled, Economic Statistics in Shambles, published in the prestigious Economic and Political Weekly, that accused the Modi government of suppressing data. It

Fact vs fiction — ASI data sheds light on job growth News

Bad loser? Why Congress bickers about economic data

There is a change in the use of economic data since the 2014 election. Unlike before, misuse of economic data appears to be politically motivated.

Opinion News

Lok Sabha polls 2019: Congress ‘natural enemy’ of regional parties, alliance math is a road to nowhere

If the national partner is small and you are big (at a state level), it is a zero-sum game—the smaller party will lose.

The Mahagathbandhan constituents see that as a real danger with the Congress. (File photo) News

Tax and expenditure reform — a dream beginning by Modi government

By introducing a DBT for the farmer, the govt appears to have taken the first step towards dismantling the corrupt policy of food procurement and distribution

Opinion News

Modi govt’s 10% quota for economically weaker sections is by far the best policy initiative for the poor, Muslims

The downtrodden, especially those historically so, like Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, did deserve special consideration, and should have been identified and provided with state-defined extra income support.

Opinion News

India does not need 12 million jobs a year, but less than 5 million

India does not need 12 million jobs a year – it needs less than 5 million. A large part of the so-called jobs crisis is because of demand for government jobs, not jobs per se.

Opinion News

Winning formula: Good economic policies help win elections, appeasement does not

Good economic policies like cash transfers help win elections. Appeasement of minorities and the majority hurts chances.

agriculture sector, agriculture industry, farmers News

Welfare benefits have created a revolution of rising expectations

You expect more from those who deliver, and are disappointed when reality and expectations do not match. But does it result in throwing out those who deliver?

Opinion News

Politics and fake GDP analysis – The lowering of GDP growth for FY05-FY12 was entirely to be expected

All kinds of interpretations and conspiracy theories are floating around regarding the CSO release of the new GDP back-series for the period FY05 to FY12.

Opinion News

RBI vs Finmin: Do high real interest rates hurt a fast growing economy?

In a modern middle-income fast growing economy high real interest rates hurt the economy—and the people.

rbi, reserve bank of india News

This is the best and an old-fashioned way for the Reserve Bank to earn genuine independence for itself

The real question, which I will address in this and a subsequent article, is whether RBI’s policy on very high real interest rates has been necessary to achieve the objective of either containment of inflation or in achieve

Opinion News

30 mn more jobs than projected? Surjit Bhalla on how correct interpretation of data can lead to the right conclusion

Conventional wisdom of no job growth in 2017/18 is found to be a gross under-estimate by a correct interpretation of household survey data for 2017/18.

Opinion News

Slipping on oil and Rupee: Faulty analysis, oily politics or policy mistakes? Surjit Bhalla finds out

RBI, by keeping real interest rates very high in 2017, attracted hot money into the debt market, causing problems in financing the CAD.

Opinion News

Modi’s sanitation, pro-women and pro-poor: If open-defecation free works, under-mortality rates should have fallen

One of the signature reforms of PM Modi, announced from the ramparts of the Red Fort on August 15, 2014, was the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan programme.

Opinion News