Surjit S Bhalla

Fact vs fiction — ASI data sheds light on job growth

On March 15, 2018, 108 economists and scientists released a letter titled, Economic Statistics in Shambles, published in the prestigious Economic and Political Weekly, that accused the Modi government of suppressing data. It

Fact vs fiction — ASI data sheds light on job growth News

Bad loser? Why Congress bickers about economic data

There is a change in the use of economic data since the 2014 election. Unlike before, misuse of economic data appears to be politically motivated.

Opinion News

Lok Sabha polls 2019: Congress ‘natural enemy’ of regional parties, alliance math is a road to nowhere

If the national partner is small and you are big (at a state level), it is a zero-sum game—the smaller party will lose.

The Mahagathbandhan constituents see that as a real danger with the Congress. (File photo) News

Tax and expenditure reform — a dream beginning by Modi government

By introducing a DBT for the farmer, the govt appears to have taken the first step towards dismantling the corrupt policy of food procurement and distribution

Opinion News

Modi govt’s 10% quota for economically weaker sections is by far the best policy initiative for the poor, Muslims

The downtrodden, especially those historically so, like Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, did deserve special consideration, and should have been identified and provided with state-defined extra income support.

Opinion News

India does not need 12 million jobs a year, but less than 5 million

India does not need 12 million jobs a year – it needs less than 5 million. A large part of the so-called jobs crisis is because of demand for government jobs, not jobs per se.

Opinion News

Winning formula: Good economic policies help win elections, appeasement does not

Good economic policies like cash transfers help win elections. Appeasement of minorities and the majority hurts chances.

agriculture sector, agriculture industry, farmers News

Welfare benefits have created a revolution of rising expectations

You expect more from those who deliver, and are disappointed when reality and expectations do not match. But does it result in throwing out those who deliver?

Opinion News

Politics and fake GDP analysis – The lowering of GDP growth for FY05-FY12 was entirely to be expected

All kinds of interpretations and conspiracy theories are floating around regarding the CSO release of the new GDP back-series for the period FY05 to FY12.

Opinion News

RBI vs Finmin: Do high real interest rates hurt a fast growing economy?

In a modern middle-income fast growing economy high real interest rates hurt the economy—and the people.

rbi, reserve bank of india News

This is the best and an old-fashioned way for the Reserve Bank to earn genuine independence for itself

The real question, which I will address in this and a subsequent article, is whether RBI’s policy on very high real interest rates has been necessary to achieve the objective of either containment of inflation or in achieve

Opinion News

30 mn more jobs than projected? Surjit Bhalla on how correct interpretation of data can lead to the right conclusion

Conventional wisdom of no job growth in 2017/18 is found to be a gross under-estimate by a correct interpretation of household survey data for 2017/18.

Opinion News

Slipping on oil and Rupee: Faulty analysis, oily politics or policy mistakes? Surjit Bhalla finds out

RBI, by keeping real interest rates very high in 2017, attracted hot money into the debt market, causing problems in financing the CAD.

Opinion News

Modi’s sanitation, pro-women and pro-poor: If open-defecation free works, under-mortality rates should have fallen

One of the signature reforms of PM Modi, announced from the ramparts of the Red Fort on August 15, 2014, was the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan programme.

Opinion News

The question of whether demonetisation failed or succeeded is not a spiritual or a moral question

Is it too much to expect that, in this data-dependent world, one should discuss hard evidence rather than soft opinions?

Opinion News

GDP Report -Misreading the truth

The level of GDP in the new base year (2011-12) was lower by about 2% than the previous estimate for 2011-12 based on the old (2004-05) data.

GDP, economy, GDP growth, inflation, economic data News

The Piketty myth & Indian reality

Crony capitalism notwithstanding, there is NO evidence that India has experienced an above average increase in income inequality

Indian inequality, capitalism, Billionaire Raj, NCAER,  inequality in India, crony capitalism in India News

Absence of true fiscal fundamentals

At a minimum, the consolidated Centre-plus-state deficit for FY18 would be about 0.5% of GDP less than now assumed by the rating agencies, and other experts.

Opinion News

Jobs growth and voting with your feet

2018 is the year for which the maximum number of claims of jobless growth have been made—it may well be the year of maximum employment gains in the last 15 years

Opinion News

Job gains vs fake analysis: Let’s debate facts, and causes

Let us debate facts, and causes. Leave fake analysis to the trolls. Let Twitter, and newspaper discussion, rise above the unintelligent discourse that passes for analysis

Opinion News

India’s middle income now raise the poverty line

When the findings of NSSO-CE 2017-18 are released, they will (likely) mark an important departure of India from an absolute poverty obsessed “poor” country, towards a middle-class, middle-income economy.

poverty line, india poverty line,  absolute poverty, poverty statistics,  per capita consumption, Inequality News

The elite should pay for their education

One mistake has fed into another to yield madness at every corner. The children of the poorest of the poor, the ones most discriminated against on the basis of caste or religion, did not receive basic quality education, so th

India News

India’s inflation not yet viral

Pronouncing the rebirth, or even a significant acceleration in Indian inflation, maybe a trifle premature

MPC members, RBI, inflation forecasts, Viral Acharya, demonetisation, Monetary Policy, PFCE News

Assembly elections 2018: Will Karnataka toll for the Congress?

High stakes for the Congress: If the Congress wins in Karnataka, it can rightfully claim that the 2014 national election, and UP 2017, were two troughs from where it is manfully bouncing back.

assembly elections 2018, karnataka polls 2018, congress, bjp News

Robust job creation in India: Not fake news

The best macro-economic performance ever in India was obtained in 2014-18; Modi’s challenge remains the reining in of the enemies within

At the time of the national elections in May 2014, India’s macro-economy was in shambles. News

No proof required! Education as wealth: Who is on 1st?

the World Bank is guilty of the “not so scholarly” traditions of Western scholars to ignore scholarship from elsewhere, even when it is right under their nose

Credit Suisse, oxfam, education as wealth, The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018, world bank, wealth inequality, TNWN, Raghuram Raja News

Goebbels and fake news: Spot the difference

National elections are scheduled for May 2019, and may happen sooner. I have often said, to anyone willing to listen, that fake news was “invented” in India long before making its way to the shores of that other great dem

Fakenews, Fake news India, Post card news, Postcard news founder arrested, Mahesh Vikram Hegde, Bengaluru news, News
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