Surjit S Bhalla
Welfare benefits have created a revolution of rising expectations
You expect more from those who deliver, and are disappointed when reality and expectations do not match. But does it result in throwing out those who deliver?
Politics and fake GDP analysis – The lowering of GDP growth for FY05-FY12 was entirely to be expected
All kinds of interpretations and conspiracy theories are floating around regarding the CSO release of the new GDP back-series for the period FY05 to FY12.
RBI vs Finmin: Do high real interest rates hurt a fast growing economy?
In a modern middle-income fast growing economy high real interest rates hurt the economy—and the people.
This is the best and an old-fashioned way for the Reserve Bank to earn genuine independence for itself
The real question, which I will address in this and a subsequent article, is whether RBI’s policy on very high real interest rates has been necessary to achieve the objective of either containment of inflation or in achieve
30 mn more jobs than projected? Surjit Bhalla on how correct interpretation of data can lead to the right conclusion
Conventional wisdom of no job growth in 2017/18 is found to be a gross under-estimate by a correct interpretation of household survey data for 2017/18.
Slipping on oil and Rupee: Faulty analysis, oily politics or policy mistakes? Surjit Bhalla finds out
RBI, by keeping real interest rates very high in 2017, attracted hot money into the debt market, causing problems in financing the CAD.
Modi’s sanitation, pro-women and pro-poor: If open-defecation free works, under-mortality rates should have fallen
One of the signature reforms of PM Modi, announced from the ramparts of the Red Fort on August 15, 2014, was the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan programme.
The question of whether demonetisation failed or succeeded is not a spiritual or a moral question
Is it too much to expect that, in this data-dependent world, one should discuss hard evidence rather than soft opinions?
GDP Report -Misreading the truth
The level of GDP in the new base year (2011-12) was lower by about 2% than the previous estimate for 2011-12 based on the old (2004-05) data.
The Piketty myth & Indian reality
Crony capitalism notwithstanding, there is NO evidence that India has experienced an above average increase in income inequality
Absence of true fiscal fundamentals
At a minimum, the consolidated Centre-plus-state deficit for FY18 would be about 0.5% of GDP less than now assumed by the rating agencies, and other experts.
Jobs growth and voting with your feet
2018 is the year for which the maximum number of claims of jobless growth have been made—it may well be the year of maximum employment gains in the last 15 years
Job gains vs fake analysis: Let’s debate facts, and causes
Let us debate facts, and causes. Leave fake analysis to the trolls. Let Twitter, and newspaper discussion, rise above the unintelligent discourse that passes for analysis
India’s middle income now raise the poverty line
When the findings of NSSO-CE 2017-18 are released, they will (likely) mark an important departure of India from an absolute poverty obsessed “poor” country, towards a middle-class, middle-income economy.
The elite should pay for their education
One mistake has fed into another to yield madness at every corner. The children of the poorest of the poor, the ones most discriminated against on the basis of caste or religion, did not receive basic quality education, so th
India’s inflation not yet viral
Pronouncing the rebirth, or even a significant acceleration in Indian inflation, maybe a trifle premature
Assembly elections 2018: Will Karnataka toll for the Congress?
High stakes for the Congress: If the Congress wins in Karnataka, it can rightfully claim that the 2014 national election, and UP 2017, were two troughs from where it is manfully bouncing back.
Robust job creation in India: Not fake news
The best macro-economic performance ever in India was obtained in 2014-18; Modi’s challenge remains the reining in of the enemies within
No proof required! Education as wealth: Who is on 1st?
the World Bank is guilty of the “not so scholarly” traditions of Western scholars to ignore scholarship from elsewhere, even when it is right under their nose
Goebbels and fake news: Spot the difference
National elections are scheduled for May 2019, and may happen sooner. I have often said, to anyone willing to listen, that fake news was “invented” in India long before making its way to the shores of that other great dem
Why a constructive debate has opened up with regard to the imposition of LTCG tax
A constructive debate has opened up with regard to the imposition of the long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax (goo.gl/CyXAE7). In my article “The Little Revenue LTCG tax”, I reached the following two conclusions.
The little revenue LTCG tax: No proof required
The LTCG formulation is not only flawed in design, but also likely to yield very little tax revenue. At the same time, it manifestly increases the discretionary power of the taxman and this has its own set of governance probl
Modi govt has helped transform the fiscal landscape, making tax revenue a non-problem
Budget 2018: Budget 2019 can best be described as one made possible by an ongoing revolution in tax collection. This revolution is beginning to make possible another revolution in income transfers to the bottom third of the p
Smart policies for redistribution: India can, and must, reform its welfare system for a transforming India
If the latest World Economic Forum (WEF) report is to be believed, 60% of the Indian population was poor, according to the World Bank poverty line of PPP $3.2 per person per day.
Piketty inequality in India fails smell tests
The implied savings estimates for India, derived from Piketty estimates of income distribution, do not conform to any known model of savings behaviour
No proof required: A direct outcome of demonetisation is a sharp increase in FY18 in tax buoyancy
A direct outcome of DeMo is a sharp increase in FY18 in tax buoyancy. Given this “unexpected” result, will the knee-jerk critics of demo please stand down?
As 2018 dawns, Surjit Bhalla says world is on course for good growth, low inflation, lower taxation
The IMF forecast is for AE inflation rates to stay “constant” at around 1.6% in 2018, before inching towards 2% in 2022.
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