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Surjit S Bhalla
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India’s inflation not yet viral
Pronouncing the rebirth, or even a significant acceleration in Indian inflation, maybe a trifle premature
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Assembly elections 2018: Will Karnataka toll for the Congress?
High stakes for the Congress: If the Congress wins in Karnataka, it can rightfully claim that the 2014 national election, and UP 2017, were two troughs from where it is manfully bouncing back.
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Robust job creation in India: Not fake news
The best macro-economic performance ever in India was obtained in 2014-18; Modi’s challenge remains the reining in of the enemies within
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No proof required! Education as wealth: Who is on 1st?
the World Bank is guilty of the “not so scholarly” traditions of Western scholars to ignore scholarship from elsewhere, even when it is right under their nose
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Goebbels and fake news: Spot the difference
National elections are scheduled for May 2019, and may happen sooner. I have often said, to anyone willing to listen, that fake news was “invented” in India long before making its way to the shores of that other great democracy.
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Why a constructive debate has opened up with regard to the imposition of LTCG tax
A constructive debate has opened up with regard to the imposition of the long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax (goo.gl/CyXAE7). In my article “The Little Revenue LTCG tax”, I reached the following two conclusions.
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The little revenue LTCG tax: No proof required
The LTCG formulation is not only flawed in design, but also likely to yield very little tax revenue. At the same time, it manifestly increases the discretionary power of the taxman and this has its own set of governance problems.
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Modi govt has helped transform the fiscal landscape, making tax revenue a non-problem
Budget 2018: Budget 2019 can best be described as one made possible by an ongoing revolution in tax collection. This revolution is beginning to make possible another revolution in income transfers to the bottom third of the population.
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Smart policies for redistribution: India can, and must, reform its welfare system for a transforming India
If the latest World Economic Forum (WEF) report is to be believed, 60% of the Indian population was poor, according to the World Bank poverty line of PPP $3.2 per person per day.
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Piketty inequality in India fails smell tests
The implied savings estimates for India, derived from Piketty estimates of income distribution, do not conform to any known model of savings behaviour
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No proof required: A direct outcome of demonetisation is a sharp increase in FY18 in tax buoyancy
A direct outcome of DeMo is a sharp increase in FY18 in tax buoyancy. Given this “unexpected” result, will the knee-jerk critics of demo please stand down?
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As 2018 dawns, Surjit Bhalla says world is on course for good growth, low inflation, lower taxation
The IMF forecast is for AE inflation rates to stay “constant” at around 1.6% in 2018, before inching towards 2% in 2022.
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Gujarat election result: Were high and accelerating real interest rates responsible for this political verdict?
Were high, and accelerating, real interest rates responsible for the political result in Gujarat? No way to know for sure, but…
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Gujarat elections 2017: Opinion polls suggest this may not be a Rahul Gandhi moment, says Surjit Bhalla
Make no mistake about it. The Gujarat election result is important, and particularly so for the Congress.
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RBI, MPC imposed big cost on economy, says Surjit Bhalla
The first year of operation of the MPC has imposed considerable costs on the economy with very few benefits. What explains MPC’s decisions?
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Demonetisation anniversary: Note ban well accepted now as a political success; it may well be an economic triumph too, says Surjit Bhalla
Today is the first anniversary of an unprecedented and bold political and economic experiment—demonetisation (DM).
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Modi’s toilet push is key to improving nutrition in India; here’s how
An ill-informed remedy can only aggravate a patient’s illness, not make her get well.
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On Indian economy, Surjit Bhalla says, debate evidence, not manufacture conclusions
In what will go down (sadly) as the most perfect anticipation, I had said that (Data vs. gossip: Who should win, hereafter DvG, goo.gl/QDZai5, FE). “My plea… – let us debate evidence, and debate how to interpret the facts. Let us not decline into ideology, and worse, into personal attacks. The economy should not be […]
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Why is Narendra Modi winning elections? Has a lot to do with incomes of the poor; read all about it
In a highly personalised attack on finance minister Arun Jaitley, ex-finance minister Yashwant Sinha made the following claims about the Indian economy (under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi).
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No, it’s not Demonetisation, nor is it the Rupee; here is the real reason for GDP crash
Inflation is down by 700 bps since 2013, and policy rates have declined by 200 bps—and you are still wondering why GDP growth is slow?
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Madness in monetary policy? Surjit Bhalla explains why that is so
It is more than four years since my column “Tell me I am Mad,” The Financial Express, June 22, 2013, was published.
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Why RBI and Monetary Policy Committee must leave their ego at home
Times have changed, and we have to change accordingly. It wasn’t so long ago that the central concern of RBI, and the major macroeconomic concern in India, was inflation.
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Old elite will not give up privileges, they will try to derail transformation happening in India, says Surjit Bhalla
The old elite cannot be expected to give up their privileges so easily. They will try to derail the structural transformation happening in India & object at every turn.
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Madhya Pradesh farmers protest: Riots amidst rising prosperity? Surjit Bhalla says politics explains phenomenon
It is politics that best explains the phenomena of farmer riots amidst rising prosperity of farmers
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RBI MPC: Surjit Bhalla looks at logical ways to lower rates
The MPC meets June 6 and 7, for their fifth meeting to decide the course of monetary policy and exchange rates.
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Three years of Narendra Modi government: Significant change in economy seen, but India must be vigilant, says Surjit Bhalla
In the movie The Graduate, Dustin Hoffman gets advice about the future from an experienced old hand. Only one word was needed to describe the future: Plastic. Narendra Modi-led BJP has just finished three years and I have two words to best describe Modi’s tenure 2014-17 and beyond: Structural Change.
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Inflation forecast: Enough of RBI’s Elevator Economics, says Surjit Bhalla
The Indian economy has likely gone through a mega structural break experience via demonetisation.
