Soumya Kanti Ghosh

Articles By Soumya Kanti Ghosh

34 Articles

The case of the missing CPI

It is statistically possible after assuming that the weightage of food in the headline CPI is closer to a more realistic 30%, that the headline CPI in the baseline case is already lower than the 6.1% computed by the NSO in Ju

CPI, Retail inflation, food inflation

Time to hike bank deposit insurance cover

There should be insurance cover of at least Rs 1 lakh for savings bank account and Rs 2 lakh for term deposits.

Time to benchmark bulk deposit rates of banks

Such benchmarking could protect the interest of retail savers and help the system achieve quicker transmission. Banks would be comfortable if bulk deposits are floating rates and would be more willing to pass on as well, by h

bulk deposit rate, bank, RBI, Reserve Bank of India, MCLR, financial express editorial, financial express, PFCE, PLR, SBI

Cheaper loans: RBI should now cajole banks towards external benchmarking

In case of India, though the rate cut was expected, the magnitude threw a curveball. This is the first time that a 35 bps cut has been executed by RBI

Fund raising, rate cut, rbi rate cut, rbi credit flow, NBFCs, NCD market, stock market, share market, bses, sensex, RBI monetary policy, Rate cut, policy repo rate, Global growth, BCBS, inflation, global economic indicators, India banking sector

How digital innovations have upset forecasting of currency demand

Leading edge ensemble econometric time series methods yield superior results, both for short term as well as at the desired level of granularities if leveraged with right attributes.

Understanding Indian voters and elections: Socio-political factors a driving force behind voter turnout rates

As per male and female voter turnout rates, the gap has declined significantly in 2014 and has been declining from 1991, when the gap was more than 10%. Extrapolating Asembly election voting patterns in states post 2014, we b

Stage ripe for larger RBI rate cut as global and domestic growth prospects worrisome

As global and domestic growth prospects look increasingly worrisome, the stage is ripe for a larger RBI rate cut

RBI rate cut, global growth, domestic growth, US Trade growth, global economy, china, europe, US economy, NAFED

Jobless growth? We are in an era of stagnant productivity and wage growth, not employment

We are in an era of stagnant productivity and wage growth, not jobs. It is imperative that we estimate labour productivity to understand the real story on jobs. In the absence of commensurate productivity and wage gains, we m

labour productivity, data, employment, economy, agricultural productivity, manufacturing productivity, agricultural productivity

RBI using call rates as a proxy for systemic liquidity

Issues relating to market microstructure needs to be addressed to have a holistic assessment of the WACR being used as a proxy for liquidity management tool.

Using call rates as a proxy for systemic liquidity (Illustration: rohnit phore)

Budget 2019: Govt borrowing trend may lead to hardening of interest rates

The widening gap between deposit and credit growth requires banks to manage liquidity by focusing on deposit growth. Thus, bank deposits need to be tax free to make them attractive

Agrarian distress: Income support to farmers better option than loan waivers

Income support for farm households may be a worse solution than freeing up agri trade and marketing, but it should work much better than loan waivers.

agriculture sector, agriculture industry

Factors that can enable inflation to decline below 3% in the coming months

A number of factors may enable inflation to decline below 3% in the coming months. Oil prices are unlikely to gain on the back of muted global demand. Food prices are unlikely to recover significantly unless government gets i

Public schooling: Why Kannadigas are abandoning government schools

Aristotle once said “a civilised society is one where good people become good citizens.” For this, the role of schools, especially primary schools, is of paramount importance. The purpose of education is to produce citize

Public schooling, Kannadiga, karnataka government school, government schools

Monetary policy: Uncertain times call for caution, not rate hikes

The 7.7% GDP growth numbers have added to the fears that growth is back on track, and the central bank must do something to prevent overheating.

monetary policy, april, RBI, GDP, india

Credit growth decline in India: Here is the untold story

Sectors such as credit to automobiles and auto ancillaries may require some rethinking by traditional lending channels.

Credit growth, decline in India, Credit growth decline in India, current fiscal, incremental credit de-growt

Here’s what will make sure inflation stays loan in near future

GST impact and sliding food prices due to a good monsoon will make sure inflation stays low in the near future

monetary policy committee, FOMC, financial markets, rbi, GST implementation, CPI

Inflation forecasting: To get serious divergent views, high time economists think in terms of real-time data analytics

It is high time economists start thinking in terms of real-time data analytics.

After delivering no surprise, RBI may not allow interest rates’ term structure decline

The monetary policy committee (MPC) unanimously decided to retain the policy repo rate at 6.25%.

Why bond yields will continue to fall

The recent decline is necessary for banks to help create a provisioning buffer in the midst of balance sheet cleaning

Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, Mudra: Making women a visible part of Indian growth story

In the Indian context, studies related to credit accessibility of women show that relative access to institutional credit of rural women may be limited vis-a-vis their urban counterparts...

CPI inflation bad news: 94 bps jump in 3 months worrying; here’s why

The rationale for excluding vegetables is that these items are mostly seasonal and cyclical in nature

new rbi governer, rbi governor 2016, RBI New Governer, reserve bank of india governor,

Monetary policy review: On inflation, its over to the ‘third FM’

The good thing is that RBI has continued to stick to an accommodative mode and this will provide enough cheer to the markets against the backdrop of global uncertainties.

Monetary policy review: On inflation, its over to the ‘third FM’

Monetary policy: RBI rejigs liquidity framework

This policy could be a game-changer in providing a new direction to monetary policy strategy, rather than stance

Raghuram Rajan

Is inflation set to fall rapidly to sub -4 per cent?

It is important to consider productivity and minimum support prices in controlling inflation instead of focusing purely on the monetary front

Budget 2016 expectations: Focus on agri, banking and jobs, amend tax system, says SBI

Budget 2016: The present economic condition warrants that budget focuses on agriculture, banking and employment intensive unorganized sector. Government must amend the tax system to ensure that India evolves into a vast integ

Column: The myth of credit-rating of corporates

The potential of Indian corporates is yet untold and ratings agencies may not reflect India’s true story

Column: The myth of credit-rating of corporates

Column: Rating downgrade & higher fiscal deficit

India should not fear downgrade because of higher deficit as long as growth keeps moving up

Column: Rating downgrade & higher fiscal deficit
Income Tax Calculator, Budget 2019, How to Calculate Income Tax


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