Saugata Bhattacharya

Articles By Saugata Bhattacharya

35 Articles

Growth Factor: A question of credit delivery

Boosting credit flows, especially from banks, is needed If India is to see sustained growth; The need is to address the root causes constricting pvt sector capex

Fourth, a facet of credit offtake is the link with bank deposits, which is reflective of financial savings (household, corporate and central and state governments).

Need a robust fiscal response

FY22 growth markdowns will mask deeper loss of incomes, with vaccine rollout key to sustained revival

Vying for growth: The focus needs to shift to sustaining growth

Higher government spending can counter decelerating recovery momentum… this should be followed by result-oriented reforms to sustain growth

Official manufacturing and trade data support these inferences.

Building resilience for the financial system

The rate cut and other liquidity facilities provided by RBI need to be enveloped in a package of macro and micro-prudential relaxations and regulatory forbearance.

Transmission dynamics of lending rates are more complex than risk aversion

Transmission dynamics of lending rates are more complex than risk aversion … but, sticky bank Term Deposit rates were the main reason behind the 2019 rate cut cycle

How to spur growth in FY21: FY20 fiscal deficit might need to be taken to 3.8% of GDP

On the revenue side, total gross taxes collected by the Centre (before transfer to states) will likely miss BE targets by Rs 4.2 lakh crore.

While the FY20 fisc is now mostly of academic interest, insights on the likely contours of the FY20 RE, which will set the base for FY21 growth assumptions, is useful.

GDP growth forecast: Growth revival won’t be easy, the onus is on fiscal policy

Growth-inflation mix in near term limits room for large policy stimulus… FY21 Budget has to explore ways to maximise impact of limited resources

GDP, GDP growth, GDP growth forecast, Growth revival, fiscal policy, IIP, economic growth

Industrial activity will remain weak for some time

The concern is of spillover into the ancillary service ecosystem. The sharp IIP de-growth was, in large part, due to a persistent negative growth in capital goods.

iip, industrial production, index of industrial production, economic slowdown, manufacturing, industry

Reading the RBI balance sheet: Why transferring central bank’s economic capital may increase embedded risk

While there is scope for significant transfer of RBI economic capital, this might increase embedded risk.

rbi, banking sector

GDP slowdown: Signs of a structural weakness warrant a coordinated policy response

Demand slowdown likely to result in low Q4 FY19 GDP growth, signs of structural weakness warrant a coordinated policy response.


Growth weakening, capex a concern

RBI has acted to infuse liquidity in a timely manner, but more micro-prudential measures might be needed to lower lending costs for MSMEs, who are more dependent on NBFCs for their borrowing needs.

Growth pangs: Deficit, exports projections cloud economic outlook

Overall government spend is projected to decelerate to 7.4% in H2, from 10.5% in H1, while an even sharper deceleration can be expected if the deficit target is to be met

Why the Rupee depreciation has not helped in improving India’s exports yet

While exports are not along the lines hoped for, base effects played a large role in the September numbers. But, the exchange rate, by itself, can do little

Monetary policy outlook: Even if MPC doesn’t hike rates, expect hawkish stance

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will have persuasive arguments either for continuing with a second consecutive hike in repo rate, or remaining on hold.

Cost-push inflation: The new MSPs’ inflationary pinch

The Technical impact of 2018-19 kharif MSP hikes on CPI inflation is estimated at 110 bps. the actual rise will depend on demand-supply conditions.

agriculture sector, crop

Rupee depreciation in line with emerging markets exchange rates

The rupee (INR) has weakened sharply against the dollar (USD); since the lows of below-63.50 to the dollar in January, it is now hovering at around 66.80, a drop of almost 5%.

gdp, economy, interest rate, PSU banks, rupee, depreciation

Cash crunch: Shortage transient – RBI can manage it well

Prima facie, large withdrawals aren’t because of a change in the denomination mix. Until this behaviour is better understood, a policy response will be incomplete

Cash crunch, rbi, cash shortage in atm, currency in circulation, DeMo, gdp, NEFT, UPI, ATM transaction, indian economy

Why Monetary Policy Committee is likely to take a hawkish stand

India’s inflation trajectory will keep rising over the next 5-6 months, and the “super core (ex-food, fuel, diesel, petrol and housing)” inflation has also been rising.

Monetary Policy, Monetary Policy Committee, US non-farm payrolls data, NFP data

Budget 2018: Absorbing revenue shortfall will moderate FY18 growth

Expenditure management is likely to be the balancing lever to achieve a desirable mix of budget metrics.

cash, budget 2018, union budget 2018. economy, gst, FY18 growth

Economy has shrugged off demonetisation, GST effects; see how

Job growth, on the contrary, seems to have jumped in the October-December 2017 period—with the manufacturing sector contributing the most.

economy, GST, demonetisation

GDP growth slowdown is not a new phenomenon; supply shocks have worsened

Much has been written about the need for a policy stimulus, particularly a large fiscal push, but there isn't a lot of analysis of the nature and causes of the slowdown, the absence of which largely renders the solutions out

GDP growth slowdown, slowdown in GDP growth, gdp growth, Monetary Policy Committee, GDP deflator, Gross Value Added, agriculture segment, constant prices, real GVA, rise in GVA, Benami Act, demonetisation, preparations for GST, Real Estate Regulation Act, VAT structures

Investment in India slowing: households to blame and not corporates; check out defining narrative

The slowdown in investment almost entirely originates in households—and not the corporate sector

Investment in India, households, corporates, GDP 

UK election result 2017: With Theresa May dependent on DUP, Brexit negotiations become more difficult

This election points to the second miscalculation and misinterpretation of underlying trends, the first being the call for the referendum for leaving the Euro Area.

brexit, uk elections, uk elections 2017, uk prime minister theresa may

Economic data opens space for RBI easing; here’s why a second look is a must

The revisions of two significant data series were released last Friday, mostly on the lines of changes recommended earlier by expert committees.

Reviving investment climate: To boost private capex, corporate debt has to be tackled

In order to revive investment, both demand- and supply-impediments of credit offtake need to be tackled

GDP growth reflects economic reality; expected revisions likely to be modest

The national accounts for Q3 of FY17 have been extensively trolled, some questioning them as “too good to be true”. This article attempts to open up the conversation, shows some of the underlying constructs of the GDP, GV

Demonetisation: Payments behaviour in India has already changed

One of the payoffs to the massive exercise of “withdrawal of legal tender character” of high denomination notes is the hope of transiting to a less-cash transactional economy.

withdrawal of legal tender character, Digital Economy, Online Payment, USSD, smartphone usage, demonetisation
Income Tax Calculator, Budget 2019, How to Calculate Income Tax


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