Saugata Bhattacharya

Why the Rupee depreciation has not helped in improving India’s exports yet

While exports are not along the lines hoped for, base effects played a large role in the September numbers. But, the exchange rate, by itself, can do little

Opinion News

Monetary policy outlook: Even if MPC doesn’t hike rates, expect hawkish stance

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will have persuasive arguments either for continuing with a second consecutive hike in repo rate, or remaining on hold.

Opinion News

Cost-push inflation: The new MSPs’ inflationary pinch

The Technical impact of 2018-19 kharif MSP hikes on CPI inflation is estimated at 110 bps. the actual rise will depend on demand-supply conditions.

agriculture sector, crop News

Rupee depreciation in line with emerging markets exchange rates

The rupee (INR) has weakened sharply against the dollar (USD); since the lows of below-63.50 to the dollar in January, it is now hovering at around 66.80, a drop of almost 5%.

gdp, economy, interest rate, PSU banks, rupee, depreciation News

Cash crunch: Shortage transient – RBI can manage it well

Prima facie, large withdrawals aren’t because of a change in the denomination mix. Until this behaviour is better understood, a policy response will be incomplete

Cash crunch, rbi, cash shortage in atm, currency in circulation, DeMo, gdp, NEFT, UPI, ATM transaction, indian economy News

Why Monetary Policy Committee is likely to take a hawkish stand

India’s inflation trajectory will keep rising over the next 5-6 months, and the “super core (ex-food, fuel, diesel, petrol and housing)” inflation has also been rising.

Monetary Policy, Monetary Policy Committee, US non-farm payrolls data, NFP data News

Budget 2018: Absorbing revenue shortfall will moderate FY18 growth

Expenditure management is likely to be the balancing lever to achieve a desirable mix of budget metrics.

cash, budget 2018, union budget 2018. economy, gst, FY18 growth News

Economy has shrugged off demonetisation, GST effects; see how

Job growth, on the contrary, seems to have jumped in the October-December 2017 period—with the manufacturing sector contributing the most.

economy, GST, demonetisation News

GDP growth slowdown is not a new phenomenon; supply shocks have worsened

Much has been written about the need for a policy stimulus, particularly a large fiscal push, but there isn't a lot of analysis of the nature and causes of the slowdown, the absence of which largely renders the solutions out

GDP growth slowdown, slowdown in GDP growth, gdp growth, Monetary Policy Committee, GDP deflator, Gross Value Added, agriculture segment, constant prices, real GVA, rise in GVA, Benami Act, demonetisation, preparations for GST, Real Estate Regulation Act, VAT structures News

Investment in India slowing: households to blame and not corporates; check out defining narrative

The slowdown in investment almost entirely originates in households—and not the corporate sector

Investment in India, households, corporates, GDP  News

UK election result 2017: With Theresa May dependent on DUP, Brexit negotiations become more difficult

This election points to the second miscalculation and misinterpretation of underlying trends, the first being the call for the referendum for leaving the Euro Area.

brexit, uk elections, uk elections 2017, uk prime minister theresa may News

Economic data opens space for RBI easing; here’s why a second look is a must

The revisions of two significant data series were released last Friday, mostly on the lines of changes recommended earlier by expert committees.

Opinion News

Reviving investment climate: To boost private capex, corporate debt has to be tackled

In order to revive investment, both demand- and supply-impediments of credit offtake need to be tackled

Economy News

GDP growth reflects economic reality; expected revisions likely to be modest

The national accounts for Q3 of FY17 have been extensively trolled, some questioning them as “too good to be true”. This article attempts to open up the conversation, shows some of the underlying constructs of the GDP, GV

Opinion News

Demonetisation: Payments behaviour in India has already changed

One of the payoffs to the massive exercise of “withdrawal of legal tender character” of high denomination notes is the hope of transiting to a less-cash transactional economy.

withdrawal of legal tender character, Digital Economy, Online Payment, USSD, smartphone usage, demonetisation News

Rs 500, Rs 1000 notes ban: Narendra Modi govt will need to wait to harvest gain

But the actual realisation of this extra revenue will not come about in FY17

500 rs note ban, 1000 rs note ban, modi loses 3 lakh followrs on twitter, narendra modi twitter, modi twitter account, modi twitter followers, modi twitter news

RBI monetary policy: Better than ever chance of a repo rate cut

Even sticky Core CPI inflation is partly due to gold and silver prices

Opinion News

Sharp rise in cash leakages

It has added to liquidity deficit, but the mix of reasons suggest it might not be as big a problem in FY17

Sharp rise in cash leakages

Column: Why are states borrowing so much?

Depletion of cash surpluses might have limited the ability to draw from central government grants

Column: Why are states borrowing so much?

Industrial activity shrinkage: Beyond just festival days accounting

Why are the Centre’s initiatives taking so long to translate into growth?

KHAN MARKET News

Column: Responding to repo rate cuts

But low financial savings and structure of bank deposits are slowing the pace.

Column: Responding to repo rate cuts

India’s export competitiveness: Are exchange rates the key?

The impact will be at the margins as long as the overall growth of India’s established market remains slow

India’s export competitiveness: Are exchange rates the key?

Column: India’s vulnerability to Fed rate hike

Market pricing and defences will keep impact moderate this time.

Column: India’s vulnerability to Fed rate hike
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