Renu Kohli

Articles By Renu Kohli

112 Articles

Looming crisis: Why pre-Covid consumption slide quite worrying

Household deleveraging is the new hotspot for policy attention, RBI may have to consider a deeper interest rate cut in order to restore confidence

Financial liabilities of households reduced Rs 1.5 trillion in FY20 over the previous year, a 1 percentage point decline relative to aggregate output.

India’s potential growth rate had fallen precipitously before COVID-19

India’s potential growth rate had fallen precipitously before Covid-19. It will now be pushed down further.

Crisis Conundrum: To spend or not to spend

Drawing parallels with 2008 is misplaced; fast action needed now that a downgrade has happened

This removes the fears, if any, about the consequences of larger fiscal intervention towards income support than the 0.8% of GDP considered so far.

Covid-19: An economic mess is staring in the face

Deeper contraction in output and sustained inflationary pressures could be policymakers’ nightmare

Similarly, as per the data, food inflation stood at 5.88 per cent against 6.56 per cent in the previous month and 5.21 per cent in May 2019.

Covid crisis: Why panic labour reforms can be counterproductive

In its urgency to bring in foreign investments to encourage future growth and employment, govt must remember that timing is as critical as the content of reforms

Structural reform policies endeavour to change the working of an economy in a more fundamental way, which India requires.

How precarious are state finances?

India has to sustain growth momentum ahead, public investment will have to fill up an even larger deficit in private spending than it does now.

Fighting Coronavirus: Monetary-fiscal distancing as important

Emerging economies cannot emulate monetary actions of advanced countries. Direct funding of deficit undermines discipline, central bank autonomy.

coronavirus, coronavirus outbreak, coronavirus lockdown, coronavirus lockdown in India, coronavirus lockdown economic impacts india, coronavirus economic impacts expert opinion, indian economy expert opinion

Monetary-fiscal distancing as important

Emerging economies cannot emulate monetary actions of advanced countries. Direct funding of deficit undermines discipline, central bank autonomy.

Corona-crisis needs urgent fiscal intervention

The government must work on a credible fiscal consolidation strategy once crisis settles. For now, fiscal support must be spent such that it can be credibly redeemed

Corona crisis, fiscal interventions, Corona lockdown, coronavirus, economic activity, financial sector, gdp, coronavirus pandemic

In corona fight, mind the debt

Fiscal risks intensifying from build-up of liabilities. It would be prudent to fund targeted hand-outs to corona-affected segments by redirecting subsidy spends

Could inflation be the biggest surprise in 2020?

With macroeconomic policy inconsistencies building up, inflation risks could turn out to be real and surprise all in 2020.

inflation, economy

Budget 2020: Nirmala Sitharaman’s great escape on fiscal deficit

Budget 2020-21: For now, the government has managed to ‘escape’; it anticipates that structural reforms will revive growth, and investments, with help from monetary easing, and a possible pick up of global growth

India could be staring at a low-level growth trap! Must get real on infra-led growth

India’s past does not inspire confidence. If the TOT model fails and insolvency creeps into NHAI, pfc, etc, India could be staring at a low-level growth trap.

economy, india economy

Exceptional 2019: The year in which all growth projections for economy went haywire

The fault lines of the economy that had opened up much before the election became deeper and widened in the second half of the year.

The heightened vulnerabilities in the financial sector in 2019, for example, are an outcome of the problem-handling over the last few years.

Economic slowdown: The return of inflation fears

Atypical dynamics of high inflation and weakening demand, with other growth drivers fizzling out, could close the monetary space available TO the MPC

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Investor anxiety: Private investment in the doldrums

Difficult to gauge if it will survive the recent demand shock, The severity of the demand fall has depressed sentiments.

Private investment, GDP, IMF, RERA, NPA, NBFC crisis, Policy Uncertainty index, investment slowdown

NPA ailment: Financial sector fragility persists

The Reserve Bank of India reported, recently, that credit quality deteriorated in June 2019, with rise in stressed and NPA ratios in all sectors except industry (Monetary Policy Report, October).

npa, non performing assets, gnpa, stressed assets. psu banks, private banks, bank defaults, bank profits, private bank profit

Economic growth in a critical phase, time to worry if contagion from financial sector to the real sector is spreading

With credit multiplier staying weak, it is time to worry if contagion from the financial sector to the real sector is spreading

NBFC crisis, economic growth, GDP growth, Share of NBFC, public sector banks, nbfc rbi, rbi repo rate, indian economic growth, economic slowdown

Explained: Why corporate tax cut is no brahmastra

A great deal will depend on how the MPC chooses to communicate its views on growth, and the role of monetary policy to undertake the ‘heavy-lifting’, post-fiscal shock

RBI Governor Das, too, had communicated this, in no uncertain terms, to the market a week before. (File photo)

Growth distress returns: Several narratives of the past turn out to be myths

With this collapse, several growth narratives of the past turn out to be myths.

The inevitable comparison with the 2012 slowdown calls for revisiting growth narratives of the time. It is important to see how these hold out, as they guided Modi 1.0’s policy responses

Centre’s focus on bigger picture does not assuage slowdown concerns

The retail-wholesale inflation gap, which touched 10 percentage points (ppt) in September 2015, has sharply reduced to below 2 ppt since November 2016 as the two inflation rates converged.

risk, opportunity, multiple outcome, personal finance, money, bank, market, growth 

Time to revisit recommendations of Tarapore committee report

It’s time to revisit the recommendations of Tarapore Committee reports on capital account convertibility.

Budget 2019: Govt selling an aspirational goal of $5 trillion economy must remember ‘hope is not a strategy’

Union Budget 2019: So, if a government adopts a fiscal consolidation strategy at a time of no fiscal space but with pressures of reviving growth, how does it set its fiscal policy?

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Budget 2019: Modi 1.0 exhausted all fiscal space

Budget 2019: Contrary to Modi government 1.0’s fiscal consolidation claim, the central government’s debt-GDP ratio has inched rather modestly towards 40%, which is what the newly amended FRBM Act (2018) targeted by FY25.

Narendra Modi, Narendra Singh Tomar, Nirmala Sitharaman, Piyush Goyal, PM KISAN scheme

Bad loans: Is the NPA fire spreading?

Recent developments and data indicate toxic assets rising in smaller segments as well.

npa, bad loans, msme, msme loans

Privatisation to reducing losses of state-run power entities: A difficult time awaits the next government

The overall picture is of serious impediments in some segments that require urgent reform or resolution if encouraging private investment is a policy priority.

Why are ethics important in the finance industry?

India risks deflation; RBI may have to signal several rounds of rate cuts

The critics point out though that India was no exception—it benefited hugely from the collapse in international oil, food and commodity prices in a persisting global deflationary ecosystem.

Income Tax Calculator, Budget 2019, How to Calculate Income Tax


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