Renu Kohli

Articles By Renu Kohli

100 Articles

India could be staring at a low-level growth trap! Must get real on infra-led growth

India’s past does not inspire confidence. If the TOT model fails and insolvency creeps into NHAI, pfc, etc, India could be staring at a low-level growth trap.

economy, india economy News

Exceptional 2019: The year in which all growth projections for economy went haywire

The fault lines of the economy that had opened up much before the election became deeper and widened in the second half of the year.

The heightened vulnerabilities in the financial sector in 2019, for example, are an outcome of the problem-handling over the last few years. News

Economic slowdown: The return of inflation fears

Atypical dynamics of high inflation and weakening demand, with other growth drivers fizzling out, could close the monetary space available TO the MPC

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Investor anxiety: Private investment in the doldrums

Difficult to gauge if it will survive the recent demand shock, The severity of the demand fall has depressed sentiments.

Private investment, GDP, IMF, RERA, NPA, NBFC crisis, Policy Uncertainty index, investment slowdown News

NPA ailment: Financial sector fragility persists

The Reserve Bank of India reported, recently, that credit quality deteriorated in June 2019, with rise in stressed and NPA ratios in all sectors except industry (Monetary Policy Report, October).

npa, non performing assets, gnpa, stressed assets. psu banks, private banks, bank defaults, bank profits, private bank profit News

Economic growth in a critical phase, time to worry if contagion from financial sector to the real sector is spreading

With credit multiplier staying weak, it is time to worry if contagion from the financial sector to the real sector is spreading

NBFC crisis, economic growth, GDP growth, Share of NBFC, public sector banks, nbfc rbi, rbi repo rate, indian economic growth, economic slowdown News

Explained: Why corporate tax cut is no brahmastra

A great deal will depend on how the MPC chooses to communicate its views on growth, and the role of monetary policy to undertake the ‘heavy-lifting’, post-fiscal shock

RBI Governor Das, too, had communicated this, in no uncertain terms, to the market a week before. (File photo) News

Growth distress returns: Several narratives of the past turn out to be myths

With this collapse, several growth narratives of the past turn out to be myths.

The inevitable comparison with the 2012 slowdown calls for revisiting growth narratives of the time. It is important to see how these hold out, as they guided Modi 1.0’s policy responses News

Centre’s focus on bigger picture does not assuage slowdown concerns

The retail-wholesale inflation gap, which touched 10 percentage points (ppt) in September 2015, has sharply reduced to below 2 ppt since November 2016 as the two inflation rates converged.

risk, opportunity, multiple outcome, personal finance, money, bank, market, growth  News

Time to revisit recommendations of Tarapore committee report

It’s time to revisit the recommendations of Tarapore Committee reports on capital account convertibility.

Opinion News

Budget 2019: Govt selling an aspirational goal of $5 trillion economy must remember ‘hope is not a strategy’

Union Budget 2019: So, if a government adopts a fiscal consolidation strategy at a time of no fiscal space but with pressures of reviving growth, how does it set its fiscal policy?

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Budget 2019: Modi 1.0 exhausted all fiscal space

Budget 2019: Contrary to Modi government 1.0’s fiscal consolidation claim, the central government’s debt-GDP ratio has inched rather modestly towards 40%, which is what the newly amended FRBM Act (2018) targeted by FY25.

Narendra Modi, Narendra Singh Tomar, Nirmala Sitharaman, Piyush Goyal, PM KISAN scheme News

Bad loans: Is the NPA fire spreading?

Recent developments and data indicate toxic assets rising in smaller segments as well.

npa, bad loans, msme, msme loans News

Privatisation to reducing losses of state-run power entities: A difficult time awaits the next government

The overall picture is of serious impediments in some segments that require urgent reform or resolution if encouraging private investment is a policy priority.

Why are ethics important in the finance industry? News

India risks deflation; RBI may have to signal several rounds of rate cuts

The critics point out though that India was no exception—it benefited hugely from the collapse in international oil, food and commodity prices in a persisting global deflationary ecosystem.

Opinion News

Five years of macro-confusion: Credit cycle, NPAs, capacity utilisation point to slowing economy

The credit cycle, the NPAs and capacity utilisation point to a decelerating economy

Opinion News

Subdued animal spirit: Private investment slumbers as uncertainties fester

The narrative of Romantic GDP estimates has submerged the doubts about the strong economy that lurk beneath, failed to boost animal spirits

Opinion News

Budget 2019: Govt consecutively deviated from the fiscal roadmap

The Modi government began with fiscal pause to spur a recovery, and now ends doing the same with higher interest rates

Opinion News

Fiscal trouble: Fallout of lower tax revenues could hurt private investment and growth

Weighed down by lower tax revenues, empty non-tax revenue coffers and expenditure compression, the fiscal fallout could hurt private investment and growth.

gst, economy News

Food Prices: The big macro-puzzle of 2018

No convincing explanation emerged for their continuous, steep fall. A tentative Proposition is there may be an explanation in Friedman’s Permanent Income hypothesis.

Opinion News

Monetary policy in 2018: Targeting inflation in uncertain times wasn’t easy

MPC’s predicaments were palpable as most elements remained misaligned. But, can anyone really predict Food CPI for thenext 12 months correctly?

monetary policy, indian industry, fdi, fpi, inflation News

MPC must prepare for cutting interest rates; risks to core inflation have abated

The central bank must conduct an in-depth research study to examine why food prices are not restoring despite significant cost pressures and price support

Opinion News

RBI vs Govt: Forcing RBI to part with reserves could set a bad precedent

When the rbi governor and so many former ones are arguing against a lowering of reserves, surely this should count for something?

Opinion News

Lessons for RBI from the shocking Rupee slide and questions it has raised

The central bank is learning the hard way that inflation targeting is not the panacea it was so sure about

Opinion News

Defend demonetisation, but at least sound credible

It is difficult to conclude, as some have done, that demo either raised tax-buoyancy more than other measures, or even lowered cash-intensity.

Opinion News

Sky high? Air traffic is not a leading indicator

Weak pricing power of leading carriers raises doubt on robustness of demand conditions.

Opinion News

Fiscal consolidation: Time to dilute the Food Security Act

to create fiscal space the govt must prune the fsa by either reducing the number of FSA beneficiaries/the quantity assured to them or raising subsidised prices.

Income Tax Calculator, Budget 2019, How to Calculate Income Tax


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