Looming crisis: Why pre-Covid consumption slide quite worrying
Household deleveraging is the new hotspot for policy attention, RBI may have to consider a deeper interest rate cut in order to restore confidence
India’s potential growth rate had fallen precipitously before COVID-19
India’s potential growth rate had fallen precipitously before Covid-19. It will now be pushed down further.
Crisis Conundrum: To spend or not to spend
Drawing parallels with 2008 is misplaced; fast action needed now that a downgrade has happened
Covid-19: An economic mess is staring in the face
Deeper contraction in output and sustained inflationary pressures could be policymakers’ nightmare
Covid crisis: Why panic labour reforms can be counterproductive
In its urgency to bring in foreign investments to encourage future growth and employment, govt must remember that timing is as critical as the content of reforms
How precarious are state finances?
India has to sustain growth momentum ahead, public investment will have to fill up an even larger deficit in private spending than it does now.
Fighting Coronavirus: Monetary-fiscal distancing as important
Emerging economies cannot emulate monetary actions of advanced countries. Direct funding of deficit undermines discipline, central bank autonomy.
Monetary-fiscal distancing as important
Emerging economies cannot emulate monetary actions of advanced countries. Direct funding of deficit undermines discipline, central bank autonomy.
Corona-crisis needs urgent fiscal intervention
The government must work on a credible fiscal consolidation strategy once crisis settles. For now, fiscal support must be spent such that it can be credibly redeemed
In corona fight, mind the debt
Fiscal risks intensifying from build-up of liabilities. It would be prudent to fund targeted hand-outs to corona-affected segments by redirecting subsidy spends
Could inflation be the biggest surprise in 2020?
With macroeconomic policy inconsistencies building up, inflation risks could turn out to be real and surprise all in 2020.
Budget 2020: Nirmala Sitharaman’s great escape on fiscal deficit
Budget 2020-21: For now, the government has managed to ‘escape’; it anticipates that structural reforms will revive growth, and investments, with help from monetary easing, and a possible pick up of global growth
India could be staring at a low-level growth trap! Must get real on infra-led growth
India’s past does not inspire confidence. If the TOT model fails and insolvency creeps into NHAI, pfc, etc, India could be staring at a low-level growth trap.
Exceptional 2019: The year in which all growth projections for economy went haywire
The fault lines of the economy that had opened up much before the election became deeper and widened in the second half of the year.
Economic slowdown: The return of inflation fears
Atypical dynamics of high inflation and weakening demand, with other growth drivers fizzling out, could close the monetary space available TO the MPC
Investor anxiety: Private investment in the doldrums
Difficult to gauge if it will survive the recent demand shock, The severity of the demand fall has depressed sentiments.
NPA ailment: Financial sector fragility persists
The Reserve Bank of India reported, recently, that credit quality deteriorated in June 2019, with rise in stressed and NPA ratios in all sectors except industry (Monetary Policy Report, October).
Economic growth in a critical phase, time to worry if contagion from financial sector to the real sector is spreading
With credit multiplier staying weak, it is time to worry if contagion from the financial sector to the real sector is spreading
Explained: Why corporate tax cut is no brahmastra
A great deal will depend on how the MPC chooses to communicate its views on growth, and the role of monetary policy to undertake the ‘heavy-lifting’, post-fiscal shock
Growth distress returns: Several narratives of the past turn out to be myths
With this collapse, several growth narratives of the past turn out to be myths.
Centre’s focus on bigger picture does not assuage slowdown concerns
The retail-wholesale inflation gap, which touched 10 percentage points (ppt) in September 2015, has sharply reduced to below 2 ppt since November 2016 as the two inflation rates converged.
Time to revisit recommendations of Tarapore committee report
It’s time to revisit the recommendations of Tarapore Committee reports on capital account convertibility.
Budget 2019: Govt selling an aspirational goal of $5 trillion economy must remember ‘hope is not a strategy’
Union Budget 2019: So, if a government adopts a fiscal consolidation strategy at a time of no fiscal space but with pressures of reviving growth, how does it set its fiscal policy?
Budget 2019: Modi 1.0 exhausted all fiscal space
Budget 2019: Contrary to Modi government 1.0’s fiscal consolidation claim, the central government’s debt-GDP ratio has inched rather modestly towards 40%, which is what the newly amended FRBM Act (2018) targeted by FY25.
Bad loans: Is the NPA fire spreading?
Recent developments and data indicate toxic assets rising in smaller segments as well.
Privatisation to reducing losses of state-run power entities: A difficult time awaits the next government
The overall picture is of serious impediments in some segments that require urgent reform or resolution if encouraging private investment is a policy priority.
India risks deflation; RBI may have to signal several rounds of rate cuts
The critics point out though that India was no exception—it benefited hugely from the collapse in international oil, food and commodity prices in a persisting global deflationary ecosystem.
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