Renu Kohli

MPC must prepare for cutting interest rates; risks to core inflation have abated

The central bank must conduct an in-depth research study to examine why food prices are not restoring despite significant cost pressures and price support

Opinion News

RBI vs Govt: Forcing RBI to part with reserves could set a bad precedent

When the rbi governor and so many former ones are arguing against a lowering of reserves, surely this should count for something?

Opinion News

Lessons for RBI from the shocking Rupee slide and questions it has raised

The central bank is learning the hard way that inflation targeting is not the panacea it was so sure about

Opinion News

Defend demonetisation, but at least sound credible

It is difficult to conclude, as some have done, that demo either raised tax-buoyancy more than other measures, or even lowered cash-intensity.

Opinion News

Sky high? Air traffic is not a leading indicator

Weak pricing power of leading carriers raises doubt on robustness of demand conditions.

Opinion News

Fiscal consolidation: Time to dilute the Food Security Act

to create fiscal space the govt must prune the fsa by either reducing the number of FSA beneficiaries/the quantity assured to them or raising subsidised prices.

FOOD SUBSIDI, FOOD SECURITY ACT News

Fiscally irresponsible: Crowding-in or crowding out?

Off-budget public capex seems to be pressurising the long-term bond yields, as the central government has not meaningfully lowered the stock of public debt

Crowding in Crowding out, Monetary policy, post demonetisation,  inflation, price loans, fiscal deficit, Ayushman Bharat News

Hawk or dove? Inflation targeting put to acid test

With the rate hike(s) factored in, RBI’s inflation-growth outlook and associated policy path to its target will set the tone in August.

Opinion News

Long-term fix: Why the rupee will drift down the weaker path

The Current account has structural weaknesses; dipping into reserves or raising fresh dollars may not help.

RUPEE, INFLATION News

What is behind the low food inflation?

The government has proactively managed food supplies and prices through procurement, imports, stocking, releases through open market sales and public distribution, export duties and restrictions, stockholding and inter-state

Food inflation, Food inflation in India, supply management, crop surplus, low food inflation News

Taming India’s core inflation: Rate hike was inevitable, but sticking to neutral stance risks MPC’s credibility

Rate hike was inevitablE, but sticking to neutral stance risks MPC’s credibility. Amid oil prices, weakening ` AND global financial conditions, Little Reason for the stance.

inflation, monetary policy committee, inflation risks, money News

Has core inflation begun to feed itself?

the rbi’s monetary policy committee must get to its dynamics to respond appropriately in time

inflation, CPI, International Monetary Fund, RBI, MNREGA, MPC News

Women & Banking: India’s financial inclusion suffers from a gender gap

Indian women score disproportionately low on ordinary functions such as savings and borrowings: of more than three-fourths who have a bank account, less than a fifth (16.7%) save formally, i.e., at banks.

banking sector, banks, rbi, government, gender, gender disparity News

Panic move: Evergreening the country’s external balance sheet

Why recourse to external debt for current account financing will not be enduring.

rbi, economy, inflation News

Rate of change: Free market lessons for RBI

Readers should recollect how banks refused to raise respective base rates even when RBI, under Raghuram Rajan, increased policy rates by 75 bps in September 2013 to January 2014.

RBI, rate of change, free market, bank credit News

Cash signals: Trend reversion questions formalisation of the economy after DeMo and GST

Trend reversion questions formalisation of the economy after Demo and GST. structural formal-informal divide may have happened instead.

cash, economy, gst, demonetisation, indian economy News

Opposite to reform: Higher MSP is disaster in waiting

The halo around “food-supply management” is out in the open. Four years ago, a new government started with the grand standing of economic policy-making: it would lower MSPs (minimum support prices) for cereals to help sta

budget 2018 india income tax slab, budget 2018 india income tax, budget 2018 tax slab, income tax in budget 2018, budget income tax, Union Budget 2018, Budget 2018 India, budget 2018, Arun Jaitley, Narendra Modi, Modi government, Budget speech 2018, budget speech live, budget 2018 live, Arun Jaitley budget speech News

Budget 2018: Expenditure quality deteriorates, tilts towards current spending

Budget 2018: Most markets participants were focussed primarily on long-term capital gains tax. We saw a significant price correction in small and mid-cap stocks in the run-up to the Budget 2018.

Budget 2018: The grandfathering of gains till January 31, 2018, makes no difference to sale or purchase before or after the Budget 2018. News

Crude prices and inflation: Will tomorrow’s inflation be any different from yesterday’s?

In the years following the 2008 crisis, the world’s major economies almost begged for a little more inflation. They ran ultra-easy monetary policies to stave off potential threats to a deflationary situation.

crude prices, inflation, 2008 crisis, monetary policy, ultra easy monetary policy, deflationary situation, inflation targeting News

Growth upturn: PMIs, CEOs & CMIE

Two sets of contrasting data welcomed the first week of the new year. The first one was the Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers index), which expanded the fastest in five years in December 2017.

Manufacturing PMI, what is Purchasing Managers index, Purchasing Managers index News

Here is why rupee may not sail so smoothly in 2018

A calm rupee has been the cornerstone of India’s macroeconomic stability in the past three years.

rupee, rupee smooth sail, rupee 2018, exchange rate News

GDP outlook: Why growth optimism is misplaced

Slowing consumption could be the new headwind; on the supply-side, agriculture’s weather dependency persists, construction is yet to revive

GDP, GDP outlook, growth optimism, growth optimism misplaced News

NPAs crisis: Now, private banks do not look good anymore

This is critical as the current narratives squarely blame public sector bank management for pure bad lending—either being coaxed by the then UPA government to finance its ambitious infrastructure investment targets or collu

NPAs crisis, RBI,  NPA disclosures, private banks, public sector banks, UPA government News

Economic slowdown: Parroting the structural reforms mantra

Why did the economy slow down for five consecutive quarters? Was it structural or cyclical? The government seemed in no mood to entertain any such question.

Opinion News

Demonetisation, GST largely seen as positive development; here is why

Few policies focus on what causes informality and so most ignore the cost of trying to make the economy more formal.

Demonetisation, GST News

From policy paralysis to policy shocks: Uncertainty returns to haunt investment, growth

In FY13 and FY14, a paralysed govt failed to respond to business needs. Now, a hyper-active govt led by an agile tax bureaucracy is causing uncertainty

india economy, policy makers, post gst, policy shocks, Nielsen, rbi, 2017 Consumer Confidence Survey, Business Expectations Index, NDA government News

GDP growth: Economy’s recovery is L-shaped? Here is what the constraint is

Expectations that growth will revert to 7%-plus look implausible. An optimistic scenario is that the path ahead is L-shaped: Growth may hover in the 6-6.5% region.

GDP, GDP india, GDP news, latest india GDP, latest gdp india, GDP growth, gdp revision, gdp revival News
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