Renu Kohli
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Taming India’s core inflation: Rate hike was inevitable, but sticking to neutral stance risks MPC’s credibility
Rate hike was inevitablE, but sticking to neutral stance risks MPC’s credibility. Amid oil prices, weakening ` AND global financial conditions, Little Reason for the stance.
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Has core inflation begun to feed itself?
the rbi’s monetary policy committee must get to its dynamics to respond appropriately in time
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Women & Banking: India’s financial inclusion suffers from a gender gap
Indian women score disproportionately low on ordinary functions such as savings and borrowings: of more than three-fourths who have a bank account, less than a fifth (16.7%) save formally, i.e., at banks.
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Panic move: Evergreening the country’s external balance sheet
Why recourse to external debt for current account financing will not be enduring.
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Rate of change: Free market lessons for RBI
Readers should recollect how banks refused to raise respective base rates even when RBI, under Raghuram Rajan, increased policy rates by 75 bps in September 2013 to January 2014.
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Cash signals: Trend reversion questions formalisation of the economy after DeMo and GST
Trend reversion questions formalisation of the economy after Demo and GST. structural formal-informal divide may have happened instead.
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Opposite to reform: Higher MSP is disaster in waiting
The halo around “food-supply management” is out in the open. Four years ago, a new government started with the grand standing of economic policy-making: it would lower MSPs (minimum support prices) for cereals to help stabilise inflation.
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Budget 2018: Expenditure quality deteriorates, tilts towards current spending
Budget 2018: Most markets participants were focussed primarily on long-term capital gains tax. We saw a significant price correction in small and mid-cap stocks in the run-up to the Budget 2018.
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Crude prices and inflation: Will tomorrow’s inflation be any different from yesterday’s?
In the years following the 2008 crisis, the world’s major economies almost begged for a little more inflation. They ran ultra-easy monetary policies to stave off potential threats to a deflationary situation.
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Growth upturn: PMIs, CEOs & CMIE
Two sets of contrasting data welcomed the first week of the new year. The first one was the Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers index), which expanded the fastest in five years in December 2017.
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Here is why rupee may not sail so smoothly in 2018
A calm rupee has been the cornerstone of India’s macroeconomic stability in the past three years.
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GDP outlook: Why growth optimism is misplaced
Slowing consumption could be the new headwind; on the supply-side, agriculture’s weather dependency persists, construction is yet to revive
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NPAs crisis: Now, private banks do not look good anymore
This is critical as the current narratives squarely blame public sector bank management for pure bad lending—either being coaxed by the then UPA government to finance its ambitious infrastructure investment targets or colluding with large corporates to fund unviable big projects.
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Economic slowdown: Parroting the structural reforms mantra
Why did the economy slow down for five consecutive quarters? Was it structural or cyclical? The government seemed in no mood to entertain any such question.
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Demonetisation, GST largely seen as positive development; here is why
Few policies focus on what causes informality and so most ignore the cost of trying to make the economy more formal.
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From policy paralysis to policy shocks: Uncertainty returns to haunt investment, growth
In FY13 and FY14, a paralysed govt failed to respond to business needs. Now, a hyper-active govt led by an agile tax bureaucracy is causing uncertainty
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GDP growth: Economy’s recovery is L-shaped? Here is what the constraint is
Expectations that growth will revert to 7%-plus look implausible. An optimistic scenario is that the path ahead is L-shaped: Growth may hover in the 6-6.5% region.
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Inflation targeting: Volatile food prices expose inherent risk
Volatile food prices have exposed the risks inherent in targeting headline CPI inflation.
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How rising repatriation, disinvestment outflows spoil India’s fine FDI story
According to the commerce ministry, this is a response to substantial easing of rules—87, to be precise, spread across 21 sectors—that has catapulted India into the topmost FDI destination globally.
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Forex policy: Here’s why it would be tough for India to copy China
The deficit must be reduced sharply to allow RBI to absorb liquidity arising from intervening in the currency market, and a productivity surge is needed to keep domestic inflation in check.
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Book Review: Parthasarathi Shome’s ‘Tax chronicle’, a useful compilation of articles on fiscal, taxation issues
Parthasarathi Shome’s grasp on taxation systems across countries, and experience in reforming these is vast and possibly unchallenged.
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As bank credit falters, how worried should we be?
Are Indian corporates credit starved? Looking at the recent trend in bank credit to industry and services, any one would tend to agree with such a notion.
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RBI monetary policy: Neutral stance does not support growth, may make repairing India Inc balance-sheets more difficult
The policy statement itself, released on February 8, stunned everyone by shifting the stance from accommodation to neutral, leaving the market groping for reason.
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Indian economy at cusp of recession? Reforms fail to provide critical mass to push up growth
The first quarter of 2016-17 was marked by stories of green shoots firming up and further uplifting growth. We had discounted such views in these pages in May 2016, convincingly making the case that most lead indicators were not sustaining beyond a…
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In 2017, there are three monetary policy shifts to really focus on
The customary sign-off at the year-end compels a review of its defining developments. What such markers distinguish Indian monetary policy?
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Demonetisation dent: Uncertainty is breeding ground for structural slowdown
The sudden invalidation of the 1,000- and 500-rupee currency notes elicits many concerns; but with little relevant history to rely on, there are only some sketchy narratives on channels through which it could impact.
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RBI monetary policy: Action by Governor Urjit Patel and MPC hinges on inflation, growth outlook
The MPC has to lead with deep analytical insights and matching foresight in policy actions. The tasks are not straightforward, the past offers no guidance, while the economic costs of an error could be significant
