Renu Kohli

Budget 2019: Govt selling an aspirational goal of $5 trillion economy must remember ‘hope is not a strategy’

Union Budget 2019: So, if a government adopts a fiscal consolidation strategy at a time of no fiscal space but with pressures of reviving growth, how does it set its fiscal policy?

Budget 2019, budget, startups,budget highlights, budget 2019 date, budget 2019 PDF, budget 2019 highlights, budget 2019 income tax, budget highlights 2019 india News

Budget 2019: Modi 1.0 exhausted all fiscal space

Budget 2019: Contrary to Modi government 1.0’s fiscal consolidation claim, the central government’s debt-GDP ratio has inched rather modestly towards 40%, which is what the newly amended FRBM Act (2018) targeted by FY25.

Narendra Modi, Narendra Singh Tomar, Nirmala Sitharaman, Piyush Goyal, PM KISAN scheme News

Bad loans: Is the NPA fire spreading?

Recent developments and data indicate toxic assets rising in smaller segments as well.

npa, bad loans, msme, msme loans News

Privatisation to reducing losses of state-run power entities: A difficult time awaits the next government

The overall picture is of serious impediments in some segments that require urgent reform or resolution if encouraging private investment is a policy priority.

Why are ethics important in the finance industry? News

India risks deflation; RBI may have to signal several rounds of rate cuts

The critics point out though that India was no exception—it benefited hugely from the collapse in international oil, food and commodity prices in a persisting global deflationary ecosystem.

Opinion News

Five years of macro-confusion: Credit cycle, NPAs, capacity utilisation point to slowing economy

The credit cycle, the NPAs and capacity utilisation point to a decelerating economy

Opinion News

Subdued animal spirit: Private investment slumbers as uncertainties fester

The narrative of Romantic GDP estimates has submerged the doubts about the strong economy that lurk beneath, failed to boost animal spirits

Opinion News

Budget 2019: Govt consecutively deviated from the fiscal roadmap

The Modi government began with fiscal pause to spur a recovery, and now ends doing the same with higher interest rates

Opinion News

Fiscal trouble: Fallout of lower tax revenues could hurt private investment and growth

Weighed down by lower tax revenues, empty non-tax revenue coffers and expenditure compression, the fiscal fallout could hurt private investment and growth.

gst, economy News

Food Prices: The big macro-puzzle of 2018

No convincing explanation emerged for their continuous, steep fall. A tentative Proposition is there may be an explanation in Friedman’s Permanent Income hypothesis.

Opinion News

Monetary policy in 2018: Targeting inflation in uncertain times wasn’t easy

MPC’s predicaments were palpable as most elements remained misaligned. But, can anyone really predict Food CPI for thenext 12 months correctly?

monetary policy, indian industry, fdi, fpi, inflation News

MPC must prepare for cutting interest rates; risks to core inflation have abated

The central bank must conduct an in-depth research study to examine why food prices are not restoring despite significant cost pressures and price support

Opinion News

RBI vs Govt: Forcing RBI to part with reserves could set a bad precedent

When the rbi governor and so many former ones are arguing against a lowering of reserves, surely this should count for something?

Opinion News

Lessons for RBI from the shocking Rupee slide and questions it has raised

The central bank is learning the hard way that inflation targeting is not the panacea it was so sure about

Opinion News

Defend demonetisation, but at least sound credible

It is difficult to conclude, as some have done, that demo either raised tax-buoyancy more than other measures, or even lowered cash-intensity.

Opinion News

Sky high? Air traffic is not a leading indicator

Weak pricing power of leading carriers raises doubt on robustness of demand conditions.

Opinion News

Fiscal consolidation: Time to dilute the Food Security Act

to create fiscal space the govt must prune the fsa by either reducing the number of FSA beneficiaries/the quantity assured to them or raising subsidised prices.

FOOD SUBSIDI, FOOD SECURITY ACT News

Fiscally irresponsible: Crowding-in or crowding out?

Off-budget public capex seems to be pressurising the long-term bond yields, as the central government has not meaningfully lowered the stock of public debt

Crowding in Crowding out, Monetary policy, post demonetisation,  inflation, price loans, fiscal deficit, Ayushman Bharat News

Hawk or dove? Inflation targeting put to acid test

With the rate hike(s) factored in, RBI’s inflation-growth outlook and associated policy path to its target will set the tone in August.

Opinion News

Long-term fix: Why the rupee will drift down the weaker path

The Current account has structural weaknesses; dipping into reserves or raising fresh dollars may not help.

RUPEE, INFLATION News

What is behind the low food inflation?

The government has proactively managed food supplies and prices through procurement, imports, stocking, releases through open market sales and public distribution, export duties and restrictions, stockholding and inter-state

Food inflation, Food inflation in India, supply management, crop surplus, low food inflation News

Taming India’s core inflation: Rate hike was inevitable, but sticking to neutral stance risks MPC’s credibility

Rate hike was inevitablE, but sticking to neutral stance risks MPC’s credibility. Amid oil prices, weakening ` AND global financial conditions, Little Reason for the stance.

inflation, monetary policy committee, inflation risks, money News

Has core inflation begun to feed itself?

the rbi’s monetary policy committee must get to its dynamics to respond appropriately in time

inflation, CPI, International Monetary Fund, RBI, MNREGA, MPC News

Women & Banking: India’s financial inclusion suffers from a gender gap

Indian women score disproportionately low on ordinary functions such as savings and borrowings: of more than three-fourths who have a bank account, less than a fifth (16.7%) save formally, i.e., at banks.

banking sector, banks, rbi, government, gender, gender disparity News

Panic move: Evergreening the country’s external balance sheet

Why recourse to external debt for current account financing will not be enduring.

rbi, economy, inflation News

Rate of change: Free market lessons for RBI

Readers should recollect how banks refused to raise respective base rates even when RBI, under Raghuram Rajan, increased policy rates by 75 bps in September 2013 to January 2014.

RBI, rate of change, free market, bank credit News

Cash signals: Trend reversion questions formalisation of the economy after DeMo and GST

Trend reversion questions formalisation of the economy after Demo and GST. structural formal-informal divide may have happened instead.

cash, economy, gst, demonetisation, indian economy News
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