Inflation outlook turns more uncertain
Producer price jump a past replay, with demand making a critical difference
Funding Recovery: Govt must urgently reform subsidies to create fiscal space
Subsidy reforms can no longer be postponed. On food subsidies, Govt can either streamline beneficiary eligibility/numbers or revise issue prices, or have a mix
NaBFID–One more infrastructure-finance institution takes wing
Its sources of finance raise some concerns; also, it shouldn’t turn out to be another source of perennial leakage successfully blocked two decades back
The return of fiscal dominance will test inflation targeting
Testing time may unfold as fiscal dominance returns with vengeance, global trends reverse
Rethinking fiscal benchmarks
There hasn’t been enough debate on reframing the FRBM Act against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic
Economic Outlook: Will capital flows reverse in 2021?
A surprise inflation outburst may force rich-world central banks to shrink accommodation
Monetary policy fails to stimulate the economy
Subdued credit growth is a bigger concern than rising inflation. Time for the MPC to shed light on this inability to revitalise demand
Economic recovery: Sharp contraction in financial flows last year shows exceptional stress
Recently published data on financial flows to the commercial sector confirms why growth sank to the depths it did last year—financing from all segments saw a breath-taking slide that is unprecedented!
Is India trapped in a macro trilemma?
Increased protectionism Could be a contributing factor, besides monetary fiscal imbalances, pushing the stabilisation burden on to the Exchange rates
Has food inflation fallen back to old price dynamics?
Public discourse often discussed if the low retail food inflation observed until about a year ago was cyclical or structural.
Covid crisis: Why India needs to worry about its services economy
The fall is understated, or the slowdown more pronounced, because PADO includes ‘other services’ not covered elsewhere.
Looming crisis: Why pre-Covid consumption slide quite worrying
Household deleveraging is the new hotspot for policy attention, RBI may have to consider a deeper interest rate cut in order to restore confidence
India’s potential growth rate had fallen precipitously before COVID-19
India’s potential growth rate had fallen precipitously before Covid-19. It will now be pushed down further.
Crisis Conundrum: To spend or not to spend
Drawing parallels with 2008 is misplaced; fast action needed now that a downgrade has happened
Covid-19: An economic mess is staring in the face
Deeper contraction in output and sustained inflationary pressures could be policymakers’ nightmare
Covid crisis: Why panic labour reforms can be counterproductive
In its urgency to bring in foreign investments to encourage future growth and employment, govt must remember that timing is as critical as the content of reforms
How precarious are state finances?
India has to sustain growth momentum ahead, public investment will have to fill up an even larger deficit in private spending than it does now.
Fighting Coronavirus: Monetary-fiscal distancing as important
Emerging economies cannot emulate monetary actions of advanced countries. Direct funding of deficit undermines discipline, central bank autonomy.
Monetary-fiscal distancing as important
Emerging economies cannot emulate monetary actions of advanced countries. Direct funding of deficit undermines discipline, central bank autonomy.
Corona-crisis needs urgent fiscal intervention
The government must work on a credible fiscal consolidation strategy once crisis settles. For now, fiscal support must be spent such that it can be credibly redeemed
In corona fight, mind the debt
Fiscal risks intensifying from build-up of liabilities. It would be prudent to fund targeted hand-outs to corona-affected segments by redirecting subsidy spends
Could inflation be the biggest surprise in 2020?
With macroeconomic policy inconsistencies building up, inflation risks could turn out to be real and surprise all in 2020.
Budget 2020: Nirmala Sitharaman’s great escape on fiscal deficit
Budget 2020-21: For now, the government has managed to ‘escape’; it anticipates that structural reforms will revive growth, and investments, with help from monetary easing, and a possible pick up of global growth
India could be staring at a low-level growth trap! Must get real on infra-led growth
India’s past does not inspire confidence. If the TOT model fails and insolvency creeps into NHAI, pfc, etc, India could be staring at a low-level growth trap.
Exceptional 2019: The year in which all growth projections for economy went haywire
The fault lines of the economy that had opened up much before the election became deeper and widened in the second half of the year.
Economic slowdown: The return of inflation fears
Atypical dynamics of high inflation and weakening demand, with other growth drivers fizzling out, could close the monetary space available TO the MPC
Investor anxiety: Private investment in the doldrums
Difficult to gauge if it will survive the recent demand shock, The severity of the demand fall has depressed sentiments.
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