Renu Kohli
Budget 2019: Govt selling an aspirational goal of $5 trillion economy must remember ‘hope is not a strategy’
Union Budget 2019: So, if a government adopts a fiscal consolidation strategy at a time of no fiscal space but with pressures of reviving growth, how does it set its fiscal policy?
Budget 2019: Modi 1.0 exhausted all fiscal space
Budget 2019: Contrary to Modi government 1.0’s fiscal consolidation claim, the central government’s debt-GDP ratio has inched rather modestly towards 40%, which is what the newly amended FRBM Act (2018) targeted by FY25.
Bad loans: Is the NPA fire spreading?
Recent developments and data indicate toxic assets rising in smaller segments as well.
Privatisation to reducing losses of state-run power entities: A difficult time awaits the next government
The overall picture is of serious impediments in some segments that require urgent reform or resolution if encouraging private investment is a policy priority.
India risks deflation; RBI may have to signal several rounds of rate cuts
The critics point out though that India was no exception—it benefited hugely from the collapse in international oil, food and commodity prices in a persisting global deflationary ecosystem.
Five years of macro-confusion: Credit cycle, NPAs, capacity utilisation point to slowing economy
The credit cycle, the NPAs and capacity utilisation point to a decelerating economy
Subdued animal spirit: Private investment slumbers as uncertainties fester
The narrative of Romantic GDP estimates has submerged the doubts about the strong economy that lurk beneath, failed to boost animal spirits
Budget 2019: Govt consecutively deviated from the fiscal roadmap
The Modi government began with fiscal pause to spur a recovery, and now ends doing the same with higher interest rates
Fiscal trouble: Fallout of lower tax revenues could hurt private investment and growth
Weighed down by lower tax revenues, empty non-tax revenue coffers and expenditure compression, the fiscal fallout could hurt private investment and growth.
Food Prices: The big macro-puzzle of 2018
No convincing explanation emerged for their continuous, steep fall. A tentative Proposition is there may be an explanation in Friedman’s Permanent Income hypothesis.
Monetary policy in 2018: Targeting inflation in uncertain times wasn’t easy
MPC’s predicaments were palpable as most elements remained misaligned. But, can anyone really predict Food CPI for thenext 12 months correctly?
MPC must prepare for cutting interest rates; risks to core inflation have abated
The central bank must conduct an in-depth research study to examine why food prices are not restoring despite significant cost pressures and price support
RBI vs Govt: Forcing RBI to part with reserves could set a bad precedent
When the rbi governor and so many former ones are arguing against a lowering of reserves, surely this should count for something?
Lessons for RBI from the shocking Rupee slide and questions it has raised
The central bank is learning the hard way that inflation targeting is not the panacea it was so sure about
Defend demonetisation, but at least sound credible
It is difficult to conclude, as some have done, that demo either raised tax-buoyancy more than other measures, or even lowered cash-intensity.
Sky high? Air traffic is not a leading indicator
Weak pricing power of leading carriers raises doubt on robustness of demand conditions.
Fiscal consolidation: Time to dilute the Food Security Act
to create fiscal space the govt must prune the fsa by either reducing the number of FSA beneficiaries/the quantity assured to them or raising subsidised prices.
Fiscally irresponsible: Crowding-in or crowding out?
Off-budget public capex seems to be pressurising the long-term bond yields, as the central government has not meaningfully lowered the stock of public debt
Hawk or dove? Inflation targeting put to acid test
With the rate hike(s) factored in, RBI’s inflation-growth outlook and associated policy path to its target will set the tone in August.
Long-term fix: Why the rupee will drift down the weaker path
The Current account has structural weaknesses; dipping into reserves or raising fresh dollars may not help.
What is behind the low food inflation?
The government has proactively managed food supplies and prices through procurement, imports, stocking, releases through open market sales and public distribution, export duties and restrictions, stockholding and inter-state
Taming India’s core inflation: Rate hike was inevitable, but sticking to neutral stance risks MPC’s credibility
Rate hike was inevitablE, but sticking to neutral stance risks MPC’s credibility. Amid oil prices, weakening ` AND global financial conditions, Little Reason for the stance.
Has core inflation begun to feed itself?
the rbi’s monetary policy committee must get to its dynamics to respond appropriately in time
Women & Banking: India’s financial inclusion suffers from a gender gap
Indian women score disproportionately low on ordinary functions such as savings and borrowings: of more than three-fourths who have a bank account, less than a fifth (16.7%) save formally, i.e., at banks.
Panic move: Evergreening the country’s external balance sheet
Why recourse to external debt for current account financing will not be enduring.
Rate of change: Free market lessons for RBI
Readers should recollect how banks refused to raise respective base rates even when RBI, under Raghuram Rajan, increased policy rates by 75 bps in September 2013 to January 2014.
Cash signals: Trend reversion questions formalisation of the economy after DeMo and GST
Trend reversion questions formalisation of the economy after Demo and GST. structural formal-informal divide may have happened instead.
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BUDGET 2019
- Budget 2019: Central govt to contribute 14% to NPS, employees to get 80C benefit on Tier-II deposits from April 1
- Budget 2019: Hike in import duty may dampen the gold rush
- Budget 2019: More power to villages; Rs 2 lakh crore allocated to Panchayats in five years
- Budget 2019: Healthcare sector expects hike in exemption limits for health checkup, medical reimbursement
