Renu Kohli
MPC must prepare for cutting interest rates; risks to core inflation have abated
The central bank must conduct an in-depth research study to examine why food prices are not restoring despite significant cost pressures and price support
RBI vs Govt: Forcing RBI to part with reserves could set a bad precedent
When the rbi governor and so many former ones are arguing against a lowering of reserves, surely this should count for something?
Lessons for RBI from the shocking Rupee slide and questions it has raised
The central bank is learning the hard way that inflation targeting is not the panacea it was so sure about
Defend demonetisation, but at least sound credible
It is difficult to conclude, as some have done, that demo either raised tax-buoyancy more than other measures, or even lowered cash-intensity.
Sky high? Air traffic is not a leading indicator
Weak pricing power of leading carriers raises doubt on robustness of demand conditions.
Fiscal consolidation: Time to dilute the Food Security Act
to create fiscal space the govt must prune the fsa by either reducing the number of FSA beneficiaries/the quantity assured to them or raising subsidised prices.
Fiscally irresponsible: Crowding-in or crowding out?
Off-budget public capex seems to be pressurising the long-term bond yields, as the central government has not meaningfully lowered the stock of public debt
Hawk or dove? Inflation targeting put to acid test
With the rate hike(s) factored in, RBI’s inflation-growth outlook and associated policy path to its target will set the tone in August.
Long-term fix: Why the rupee will drift down the weaker path
The Current account has structural weaknesses; dipping into reserves or raising fresh dollars may not help.
What is behind the low food inflation?
The government has proactively managed food supplies and prices through procurement, imports, stocking, releases through open market sales and public distribution, export duties and restrictions, stockholding and inter-state
Taming India’s core inflation: Rate hike was inevitable, but sticking to neutral stance risks MPC’s credibility
Rate hike was inevitablE, but sticking to neutral stance risks MPC’s credibility. Amid oil prices, weakening ` AND global financial conditions, Little Reason for the stance.
Has core inflation begun to feed itself?
the rbi’s monetary policy committee must get to its dynamics to respond appropriately in time
Women & Banking: India’s financial inclusion suffers from a gender gap
Indian women score disproportionately low on ordinary functions such as savings and borrowings: of more than three-fourths who have a bank account, less than a fifth (16.7%) save formally, i.e., at banks.
Panic move: Evergreening the country’s external balance sheet
Why recourse to external debt for current account financing will not be enduring.
Rate of change: Free market lessons for RBI
Readers should recollect how banks refused to raise respective base rates even when RBI, under Raghuram Rajan, increased policy rates by 75 bps in September 2013 to January 2014.
Cash signals: Trend reversion questions formalisation of the economy after DeMo and GST
Trend reversion questions formalisation of the economy after Demo and GST. structural formal-informal divide may have happened instead.
Opposite to reform: Higher MSP is disaster in waiting
The halo around “food-supply management” is out in the open. Four years ago, a new government started with the grand standing of economic policy-making: it would lower MSPs (minimum support prices) for cereals to help sta
Budget 2018: Expenditure quality deteriorates, tilts towards current spending
Budget 2018: Most markets participants were focussed primarily on long-term capital gains tax. We saw a significant price correction in small and mid-cap stocks in the run-up to the Budget 2018.
Crude prices and inflation: Will tomorrow’s inflation be any different from yesterday’s?
In the years following the 2008 crisis, the world’s major economies almost begged for a little more inflation. They ran ultra-easy monetary policies to stave off potential threats to a deflationary situation.
Growth upturn: PMIs, CEOs & CMIE
Two sets of contrasting data welcomed the first week of the new year. The first one was the Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers index), which expanded the fastest in five years in December 2017.
Here is why rupee may not sail so smoothly in 2018
A calm rupee has been the cornerstone of India’s macroeconomic stability in the past three years.
GDP outlook: Why growth optimism is misplaced
Slowing consumption could be the new headwind; on the supply-side, agriculture’s weather dependency persists, construction is yet to revive
NPAs crisis: Now, private banks do not look good anymore
This is critical as the current narratives squarely blame public sector bank management for pure bad lending—either being coaxed by the then UPA government to finance its ambitious infrastructure investment targets or collu
Economic slowdown: Parroting the structural reforms mantra
Why did the economy slow down for five consecutive quarters? Was it structural or cyclical? The government seemed in no mood to entertain any such question.
Demonetisation, GST largely seen as positive development; here is why
Few policies focus on what causes informality and so most ignore the cost of trying to make the economy more formal.
From policy paralysis to policy shocks: Uncertainty returns to haunt investment, growth
In FY13 and FY14, a paralysed govt failed to respond to business needs. Now, a hyper-active govt led by an agile tax bureaucracy is causing uncertainty
GDP growth: Economy’s recovery is L-shaped? Here is what the constraint is
Expectations that growth will revert to 7%-plus look implausible. An optimistic scenario is that the path ahead is L-shaped: Growth may hover in the 6-6.5% region.
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