It is likely that several quarters down the line, when the informal sector survey results are available, this number is revised down to a ~25% y-o-y contraction. For the full year, we expect GDP to contract 7.2% y-o-y (see g
FY20 has been a meaningful year of outperformance for ADSEZ’s portfolio, which grew 7% versus a flattish year for major ports and 3-4% growth for aggregate Gujarat volumes (the state accounts for ~80% of Adani Port’s volu
India’s public sector borrowings remain sticky and at elevated levels; however, the underlying mix has been changing. The period FY13-17 was characterised by the Central government lowering its fiscal deficit, and states of
Instead of deflating output and input with their respective prices, the statistics agency deflates both with a common output deflator. Therefore, when input and output prices are moving in opposite directions, a bias can aris
A constantly changing growth and inflation nexus, and delays in monetary transmission, suggest the rate decision in the upcoming RBI policy meeting on October 5 should be assessed over a multi-year horizon.
We have said this before, and have found new evidence since. Inflation in India has fallen dramatically, and while the excessively low levels of FY18 may not be sustainable as some of the drivers are short-lived, we think the
The state of India’s rural economy is puzzling. There is enough evidence to support both opposing statements: one, that the rural economy has improved, and two, that the rural economy is in the doldrums.
The government, over the last few days, finalised GST rates that could blunt the reform’s growth impact. It has decided on multiple tax rates and exemptions, moving further away from an ‘ideal’ structure.