Pranjul Bhandari
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Growth outlook: India’s GDP growth likely to hit 7.5% by end-2019
Depending on the global environment, potential growth could rise meaningfully from 2020, led by higher investment and growth dividends from recent reforms.
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Storm before the lull: Inflation will surge in FY19, cool off the year after
RBI may hike rates as soon as August as FY19 inflation rises, on the back of MSP-hikes, rising crude prices, etc. the case for further hikes in FY20 is weak as the pressures abate
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FRBM targets: NHPS, higher MSPs a drag on debt goal
Even doubling current consolidation efforts won’t help. However, setting the GST right could raise the necessary revenues to meet the debt target.
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States’ Finances & FRBM Goals: Tied to the mast, but loosely
State deficits are set to narrow, though marginally, in FY19. But the debt-bill cloud looms large while the drag from govt finances will have its bearing on growth.
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Is 4 pct inflation new normal? The rise back up may not be too sharp either
We have said this before, and have found new evidence since. Inflation in India has fallen dramatically, and while the excessively low levels of FY18 may not be sustainable as some of the drivers are short-lived, we think the rise back up may not be too sharp either.
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Farm crisis: Landless may be better off, but landed are worse off; here is what you should know of rural distress puzzle
The state of India’s rural economy is puzzling. There is enough evidence to support both opposing statements: one, that the rural economy has improved, and two, that the rural economy is in the doldrums.
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Riding a wave: A case can be made that, for credibility sake, RBI needs to rework its inflation forecasts
Watching India’s inflation trends these days gets us humming The Doors’ 1967 popular single, ‘Break on through to the other side’.
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GST rate impact: Here’s how the new tax can carry a greater punch
The government, over the last few days, finalised GST rates that could blunt the reform’s growth impact. It has decided on multiple tax rates and exemptions, moving further away from an ‘ideal’ structure.
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Monetary policy review highlights inflation outlook uncertainty
The RBI held on to its 5.1% CPI inflation forecast for January-March 2017, but highlighted that there were upside risks now versus the scope for downside surprise last time.
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Column: India’s GDP to auto-correct
As prices normalise, GDP overestimation will narrow
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Will india make it – 2016? How to revive Investment
Govt capex and growth in consumption together could revive India’s investment cycle – eventually
