Pranjul Bhandari

Articles By Pranjul Bhandari

26 Articles

Beware pitfalls when analysing Q1 GDP

It is likely that several quarters down the line, when the informal sector survey results are available, this number is revised down to a ~25% y-o-y contraction. For the full year, we expect GDP to contract 7.2% y-o-y (see g

Jobs can be regained, but at what wage?

Going by past experience and a possible second-round effect of the pandemic, India may have a wage problem, and it could get stuck in a low-growth equilibrium

We divide circular migrant labour into distress-led and aspiration-led migrants.

Coronavirus crisis: More economic pain ahead

Expect another round of conventional and unconventional easing for cushioning the ongoing economic crisis

We estimate that 65% of economic activity, more than 50% of consumption and arguably all of the investment will be impacted. (Illustration by Rohnit Phore )

Adani Ports & SEZ: Retain ‘buy’, fair value at Rs 410

FY20 has been a meaningful year of outperformance for ADSEZ’s portfolio, which grew 7% versus a flattish year for major ports and 3-4% growth for aggregate Gujarat volumes (the state accounts for ~80% of Adani Port’s volu

Adani Ports has seen reduction of share pledges worth Rs 58 bn aggregated across ports, transmission and enterprises on repayment of underlying debt.

Budget 2020: More questions than answers

Budget 2020 India: The Budget has left a slew of questions regarding GDP growth and state finances, and tensions around fiscal deficit numbers in its aftermath

GDP, fiscal deficit target, FRBM Act, NSSF, gross tax collections, corporate tax cuts, corporate tax revenues

Budget 2020: Being boring, and just implementing pre-existing policies is better

Union Budget 2020 India: The government can look at imparting a demand stimulus, but only if supported by asset sales. There is a clamour for cuts in the personal income tax rate.

Food price rise: How RBI can still find room to ease

The sharp rise in the price of vegetables since August seems to have driven much of the spike in inflation. This was not a big surprise.

The enigmatic finances of India’s states

India’s public sector borrowings remain sticky and at elevated levels; however, the underlying mix has been changing. The period FY13-17 was characterised by the Central government lowering its fiscal deficit, and states of

The Central government’s fiscal deficit came in at 3.5% of GDP, the same as in the previous year.

Fiscal forecast: What budget 2019 could offer?

Budget details will influence upcoming monetary policy action and will focus on rural India and continued support for MSMEs.

Fiscal math: Additional spending on rural India may keep 60 pct public debt-to-GDP ratio target elusive

There is no agency in the government that looks comprehensively at both Central and state, fiscal costs and revenues, and relating them to the fiscal rules that the country has enacted.

GDP numbers: Statistics Office’s single deflation practice behind underestimated growth

Instead of deflating output and input with their respective prices, the statistics agency deflates both with a common output deflator. Therefore, when input and output prices are moving in opposite directions, a bias can aris

Falling rural demand: The rural-urban inflation divide to the fore

Improvement in rural wages is not good enough. It is just a return to trend growth after lying below it for a while, and more importantly, trend growth is falling.

monetary policy, indian industry, fdi, fpi, inflation

Ailing NBFCs, fiscal gaps offset oil, tame inflation gains

In the last three years, NBFCs (here we also include the housing finance companies) accounted for nearly a third of incremental credit.

nbfc companies, nbfc norms, rbi nbfc

Domestic infrastructure: Fix land and labour related regulatory hurdles to boost growth

With slowing world growth, the falling ` won’t help. improve domestic infra, ease the regulatory hurdles in acquiring land and hiring labour

RBI Monetary Policy Review: Hold rate hike? No, it should be done sooner rather than later. Here’s why

A constantly changing growth and inflation nexus, and delays in monetary transmission, suggest the rate decision in the upcoming RBI policy meeting on October 5 should be assessed over a multi-year horizon.

RBI, RBI monetary policy, RBI Monetary Policy Review, RBI rate hike, inflation nexus, monetary transmission, opinion

Growth outlook: India’s GDP growth likely to hit 7.5% by end-2019

Depending on the global environment, potential growth could rise meaningfully from 2020, led by higher investment and growth dividends from recent reforms.

Storm before the lull: Inflation will surge in FY19, cool off the year after

RBI may hike rates as soon as August as FY19 inflation rises, on the back of MSP-hikes, rising crude prices, etc. the case for further hikes in FY20 is weak as the pressures abate

FRBM targets: NHPS, higher MSPs a drag on debt goal

Even doubling current consolidation efforts won’t help. However, setting the GST right could raise the necessary revenues to meet the debt target.

Given the rapid changes in the Indian economy over the last decade, there were calls for a new and updated FRBM law.

States’ Finances & FRBM Goals: Tied to the mast, but loosely

State deficits are set to narrow, though marginally, in FY19. But the debt-bill cloud looms large while the drag from govt finances will have its bearing on growth.

The Centre's transfers to the states have been rising since the Fourteenth Finance Commission (14FC) came into effect in FY16.

Is 4 pct inflation new normal? The rise back up may not be too sharp either

We have said this before, and have found new evidence since. Inflation in India has fallen dramatically, and while the excessively low levels of FY18 may not be sustainable as some of the drivers are short-lived, we think the

inflation, inflation new normal, Inflation in India, economy, economics experiments, Minimum Support Prices, demonetisation, GST, food supply management, inflation economy, bad loans

Farm crisis: Landless may be better off, but landed are worse off; here is what you should know of rural distress puzzle

The state of India’s rural economy is puzzling. There is enough evidence to support both opposing statements: one, that the rural economy has improved, and two, that the rural economy is in the doldrums.

farmers, landless farmers, farmers crisis, farm loan waiver, demonetisation, farmers debt

Riding a wave: A case can be made that, for credibility sake, RBI needs to rework its inflation forecasts

Watching India’s inflation trends these days gets us humming The Doors’ 1967 popular single, ‘Break on through to the other side’.

RBI, RBI news, RBI latest news, RBI forecast, RBI inflation forecast, RBI forecast on inflation, inflation, reserve bank of india

GST rate impact: Here’s how the new tax can carry a greater punch

The government, over the last few days, finalised GST rates that could blunt the reform’s growth impact. It has decided on multiple tax rates and exemptions, moving further away from an ‘ideal’ structure.

Monetary policy review highlights inflation outlook uncertainty

The RBI held on to its 5.1% CPI inflation forecast for January-March 2017, but highlighted that there were upside risks now versus the scope for downside surprise last time.

Monetary policy review highlights inflation outlook uncertainty

Column: India’s GDP to auto-correct

As prices normalise, GDP overestimation will narrow

Column: India’s GDP to auto-correct

Will india make it – 2016? How to revive Investment

Govt capex and growth in consumption together could revive India's investment cycle – eventually

Will india make it – 2016? How to revive Investment
Income Tax Calculator, Budget 2019, How to Calculate Income Tax


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