Mohamed A El-Erian
America’s unusual recovery: Now also its longest
Owing to this strength, America has become increasingly assertive in pursuing national objectives abroad, including by circumventing long-standing cooperative and conflict-resolution mechanisms and threatening import tariffs
Inflation could return: Investors and policymakers are ignoring structural factors
We are in the middle of a multi-stage process in which strong disinflationary supply-side forces eventually give way to the return of higher inflation
Western nations can avoid the Japan trap
When crafting the required comprehensive policy response, economies must recognise that the hurdles are a lot less technical, and a lot more political.
Reimagining the Davos conference: Making the summit forward looking, again
Year after year, the focus of the conference has ended up more backward-looking than forward-looking and the delegates should, instead, collect and discuss best practices for dealing with usual levels of uncertainty
Challenge for central banks: The Fed and the ECB are retreating from the business of ensuring market calm
This might be more along the lines of what the Bank of England does with its quarterly inflation report.
Explained: Brexit effects on the global economy
The Brexit process showcases the risks associated with economic and political fragmentation, and provides a preview of what awaits an increasingly fractured global economy if this continues
Tug of war of markets: Global downward forces slowing activity in China and Europe
The downward forces acting on worldwide markets are the slowing of activity in China and Europe and the divergent beliefs of the Fed and markets when it comes to the Reserve’s rate hikes
Years of insufficiently inclusive growth has given appeal to unorthodox policy approaches
The appeal of unorthodox policy approaches is the result of years of insufficiently inclusive growth, coupled with mounting concerns about income, wealth and opportunity
Central banks no longer cushion markets
Draghi emphasised the implicit message that neither governments nor markets can continue to rely on regular, large and predictable liquidity injections to offset their own problems
Developing countries may not be able to count on some of their basic assumptions about international trade
Developing countries may not be able to count on some of their basic assumptions about international trade, besides having to deal with currency, capital flow and interest rate changes.
Global finance: Lessons from the global financial crisis
The market structure that emerged from the financial crisis involves significantly larger institutions, particularly US-based ones
A Reagan moment for international trade
The US, being generally more economically resilient than other countries, would do better than most others in a contracting world economy.
Four lessons from Egypt’s World Cup exit
Greater efforts are needed to seize international opportunities for human-capital development
Agnostic markets: Markets and political pundits disagree on the G7
The disparity can be explained by the fact that G7 infighting will have only a narrow impact on growth, especially compared to factors like monetary policy.
Managing the risks of a rising dollar
Argentinian President Mauricio Macri’s government has asked the International Monetary Fund for a loan that it hopes can stem a peso rout that has driven up interest rates, has slowed the economy, and threatens the reform p
Tariff war: The global trade game
Supply chains now can have as many significant international links as domestic ones, and a substantial share of internal demand is being met by products partly or wholly produced abroad.
The World Order: Saving the shrinking middle
There was a time when many regarded being in the middle of the distribution—socially, politically, and in the business world —as a favourable, stabilising and desirable outcome.
Globalisation blues: Working towards the next economic paradigm
For decades, the Western world put its faith in a well-defined and broadly accepted economic paradigm with applications at both the national and global levels.
How the downside risks for oil prices have shifted from the demand-side to the supply side
Shale, likely reversal in dollar strength and production indiscipline by Opec members like Venezuela may beat down prices again.
Threat of financial crisis lower than risk facing growth; no Minsky Moment for China
Zhou Xiaochuan, the long-serving and respected governor of the People's Bank of China, raised eyebrows last week when he cautioned that the country could have a “Minsky Moment” if “we are too optimistic when things go s
Why YOU are not being clever by washing down oil, grease down kitchen sink; know the threat
They often acted as if the crisis was merely a cyclicalshock, and assumed that the economy would bounce back in a V-like fashion, as it had typically done after a recession. Thus, they did not regard the financial crisis as a
An IMF bridge to somewhere for Greece?
The International Monetary Fund has resurrected an old technique—commonly used in the 1980s during the Latin American debt crisis—that would allow Greece to avoid a payment default next month on debt owed to European cred
America’s confidence economy
The economy awaits a solid timeline for policy announcements to evolve into detailed design.
Toxic politics vs better economics
Anti establishment movements and figures have been quick to seize on this frustration, using inflammatory and even combative rhetoric to win support
Rise of nationalistic politics: Managing the economic fallout
Had Britain’s leaders rushed to dismantle long-standing trading systems and other arrangements with the EU before developing a credible alternative, the situation could have been much more volatile.
An opportunity for Egypt and IMF
With rapid urbanisation, the demand of potable water in Delhi is increasing at an alarming rate. Available potable water is not sufficient to meet the growing demands of Delhi.
Unburdening the FB generation
Rather than using the 2008 crisis to catalyse change, we rolled over and went back to doing more of the same
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