Mohamed A El-Erian

Articles By Mohamed A El-Erian

65 Articles

Withdrawal Symptoms: Central banking, fast and slow

A central bank that falls behind may be forced to slam on the brakes, risking a recession and financial-market instability

As the year progresses, they expect base effects to wash out together with the supply and demand mismatches.

Money Trap: The return of the finance threat?

Central banks’ codependent relationship with the financial sector has worsened wealth inequality during the pandemic

The financial sector thus continued to grow markedly, both in absolute terms and relative to national economies.

Ensuring a stronger and fairer global recovery

National policies need to accelerate reforms that combine economic relief with measures to foster much more inclusive growth

But without coordination, policy stances will increasingly diverge, as less robust economies confront additional external headwinds at a time of declining aid flows, incomplete debt relief, and hesitant foreign direct investment.

The US recovery’s promising moment

The US now needs to move expeditiously to enact the Biden administration’s second proposed fiscal package

The third challenge is highlighted by the debate among economists about whether the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan will lead to economic overheating.

Vaccine strategy: No one is safe until everyone is safe

The G7 should press vaccine manufacturers to share their knowledge with local producers and facilitate their legal and operational ability to do so

covid vaccine

Avoiding America’s vicious Covid cycle

Without sustained efforts to turn a vicious cycle into a virtuous one, the US runs the material risk of many more deaths, and a partial, and insufficiently inclusive recovery

India ranks a lowly 104th in the world with only 114,637 tests per million people, one-sixth of that in the US.

Economic Instability: The pandemic’s complex cocktail

Investors have usually been rewarded for focusing on just one thing: plentiful and predictable liquidity injections. But, the next few months will be a test for this wager

US Stocks, fiscal stimulus, Covid-19, S&P 500, Dollar Index

The Covid-19 silver linings playbook

While the immediate focus is on Covid-19 vaccines and therapies, the research currently underway could produce a host of other discoveries, with durable benefits

The Covid-19 shock has raised our collective awareness and sensitivity to low-probability, high-impact “tail risks.

Reading the dollar doldrums

A sharp decline in the relative value of the dollar this year has been met with cheers from those hoping for a short-term boost to the US economy, and with hand-wringing by those worried about the currency’s global standing

US dollar, US economy, world reserve currency, DXY index, US Federal Reserve, European Union, Eurozone, European Central Bank

US-China: Is a “rivalry partnership” possible?

The multifaceted decoupling process will create economic headwinds for both the US and China. However, China is more vulnerable, because it still needs the global economy to facilitate its impressive development process

The economic and financial implications of Covid-19 are uniting three segments of the US economy in decoupling from China.

Covid-19 crisis: Post-pandemic economic leadership begins in the US

US policymakers should work together to restore their country's global economic leadership by improving the functioning of the rules-based global system

Here, the US, as the world’s largest economy, has an important leadership role.

Globalisation is facing a three-strikes-and-out situation

Advocates of globalisation should focus on finding ways to manage an orderly and gradual process of partial deglobalisation.

Coronavirus pandemic: Saving the developing world from COVID-19

The corona-crisis could fuel more migration from low-income developing countries than current forecasts predict, and exacerbate financial-market instability

While Sub-Saharan Africa is not without some defences—including strong family networks and cultural resilience, as well as lessons learned from the Ebola crisis—there is a real risk that this Covid-19 shock would lock it in a race between deadly hunger and deadly infections.

Economics vs Covid-19: The question of how to get cash to the intended recipients is not as straightforward

The more that economic thinking advances to meet changing realities, the better will be the analysis that informs the policy response.

coronavirus, Covid-19, developing economies, modern economies, economic survey, direct bailout programs, indian economy

Worldwide, Central banks face a year of challenges

Long-term economic well-being, and financial stability call for comprehensive multi-year engagement using structural, fiscal, and cross-border tools

The ECB, too, pushed its interest-rate structure further into negative territory and restarted its asset-purchase program.

Middle East crisis: Is US Presidnet Donald Trump’s Iran strategy working?

The US may have made some gains, and even avoided, for now, the greatest immediate risk of a destabilising conflict, but it must be wary of rife aggressive unilateralism

Middle East crisis, US President, Donald Trump, Qassem Suleimani, Soviet Union, World Trade Organization, Ronald Reagan, USMCA, European countries

The global economy’s luck may run out

Unfortunately, a policy push that could improve and clarify the medium-term outlook is unlikely. The US is entering a tense and divisive election year.

Christine Lagarde’s edge is Europe’s opportunity

Lagarde brings a uniquely well-suited skillset to the challenge of avoiding a second lost decade of low, insufficiently inclusive eurozone growth.

How Argentina has fallen back into an avoidable crisis

The country has fallen back into an avoidable crisis because its economic and financial foundations have not changed significantly since 2001.

Are central banks losing their big bet

These developments highlight how newly salient political issues are impinging on policymaking, rendering economic prospects even more uncertain.

America’s unusual recovery: Now also its longest

Owing to this strength, America has become increasingly assertive in pursuing national objectives abroad, including by circumventing long-standing cooperative and conflict-resolution mechanisms and threatening import tariffs

Sovereign Bond, Arvind Virmani, EGROW Foundation

Inflation could return: Investors and policymakers are ignoring structural factors

We are in the middle of a multi-stage process in which strong disinflationary supply-side forces eventually give way to the return of higher inflation

inflation, bond markets, global bonds, US Treasuries, US Treasuries, US unemployment rate, labour market, US Federal Reserve, QE bond purchases

Western nations can avoid the Japan trap

When crafting the required comprehensive policy response, economies must recognise that the hurdles are a lot less technical, and a lot more political.

Reimagining the Davos conference: Making the summit forward looking, again

Year after year, the focus of the conference has ended up more backward-looking than forward-looking and the delegates should, instead, collect and discuss best practices for dealing with usual levels of uncertainty

Challenge for central banks: The Fed and the ECB are retreating from the business of ensuring market calm

This might be more along the lines of what the Bank of England does with its quarterly inflation report.

Explained: Brexit effects on the global economy

The Brexit process showcases the risks associated with economic and political fragmentation, and provides a preview of what awaits an increasingly fractured global economy if this continues

Tug of war of markets: Global downward forces slowing activity in China and Europe

The downward forces acting on worldwide markets are the slowing of activity in China and Europe and the divergent beliefs of the Fed and markets when it comes to the Reserve’s rate hikes

Income Tax Calculator, Budget 2019, How to Calculate Income Tax


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