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Mohamed A El-Erian

Articles By Mohamed A El-Erian

59 Articles

Economic Instability: The pandemic’s complex cocktail

Investors have usually been rewarded for focusing on just one thing: plentiful and predictable liquidity injections. But, the next few months will be a test for this wager

Recent economic data indicate that, outside of China and few other countries, the economic recovery remains uneven and uncertain, and is falling short of what is both needed and possible, in my opinion.

The Covid-19 silver linings playbook

While the immediate focus is on Covid-19 vaccines and therapies, the research currently underway could produce a host of other discoveries, with durable benefits

The Covid-19 shock has raised our collective awareness and sensitivity to low-probability, high-impact “tail risks.

Reading the dollar doldrums

A sharp decline in the relative value of the dollar this year has been met with cheers from those hoping for a short-term boost to the US economy, and with hand-wringing by those worried about the currency’s global standing

US dollar, US economy, world reserve currency, DXY index, US Federal Reserve, European Union, Eurozone, European Central Bank

US-China: Is a “rivalry partnership” possible?

The multifaceted decoupling process will create economic headwinds for both the US and China. However, China is more vulnerable, because it still needs the global economy to facilitate its impressive development process

The economic and financial implications of Covid-19 are uniting three segments of the US economy in decoupling from China.

Covid-19 crisis: Post-pandemic economic leadership begins in the US

US policymakers should work together to restore their country's global economic leadership by improving the functioning of the rules-based global system

Here, the US, as the world’s largest economy, has an important leadership role.

Globalisation is facing a three-strikes-and-out situation

Advocates of globalisation should focus on finding ways to manage an orderly and gradual process of partial deglobalisation.

Coronavirus pandemic: Saving the developing world from COVID-19

The corona-crisis could fuel more migration from low-income developing countries than current forecasts predict, and exacerbate financial-market instability

While Sub-Saharan Africa is not without some defences—including strong family networks and cultural resilience, as well as lessons learned from the Ebola crisis—there is a real risk that this Covid-19 shock would lock it in a race between deadly hunger and deadly infections.

Economics vs Covid-19: The question of how to get cash to the intended recipients is not as straightforward

The more that economic thinking advances to meet changing realities, the better will be the analysis that informs the policy response.

coronavirus, Covid-19, developing economies, modern economies, economic survey, direct bailout programs, indian economy

Worldwide, Central banks face a year of challenges

Long-term economic well-being, and financial stability call for comprehensive multi-year engagement using structural, fiscal, and cross-border tools

The ECB, too, pushed its interest-rate structure further into negative territory and restarted its asset-purchase program.

Middle East crisis: Is US Presidnet Donald Trump’s Iran strategy working?

The US may have made some gains, and even avoided, for now, the greatest immediate risk of a destabilising conflict, but it must be wary of rife aggressive unilateralism

Middle East crisis, US President, Donald Trump, Qassem Suleimani, Soviet Union, World Trade Organization, Ronald Reagan, USMCA, European countries

The global economy’s luck may run out

Unfortunately, a policy push that could improve and clarify the medium-term outlook is unlikely. The US is entering a tense and divisive election year.

Christine Lagarde’s edge is Europe’s opportunity

Lagarde brings a uniquely well-suited skillset to the challenge of avoiding a second lost decade of low, insufficiently inclusive eurozone growth.

How Argentina has fallen back into an avoidable crisis

The country has fallen back into an avoidable crisis because its economic and financial foundations have not changed significantly since 2001.

Are central banks losing their big bet

These developments highlight how newly salient political issues are impinging on policymaking, rendering economic prospects even more uncertain.

America’s unusual recovery: Now also its longest

Owing to this strength, America has become increasingly assertive in pursuing national objectives abroad, including by circumventing long-standing cooperative and conflict-resolution mechanisms and threatening import tariffs

Sovereign Bond, Arvind Virmani, EGROW Foundation

Inflation could return: Investors and policymakers are ignoring structural factors

We are in the middle of a multi-stage process in which strong disinflationary supply-side forces eventually give way to the return of higher inflation

inflation, bond markets, global bonds, US Treasuries, US Treasuries, US unemployment rate, labour market, US Federal Reserve, QE bond purchases

Western nations can avoid the Japan trap

When crafting the required comprehensive policy response, economies must recognise that the hurdles are a lot less technical, and a lot more political.

Reimagining the Davos conference: Making the summit forward looking, again

Year after year, the focus of the conference has ended up more backward-looking than forward-looking and the delegates should, instead, collect and discuss best practices for dealing with usual levels of uncertainty

Challenge for central banks: The Fed and the ECB are retreating from the business of ensuring market calm

This might be more along the lines of what the Bank of England does with its quarterly inflation report.

Explained: Brexit effects on the global economy

The Brexit process showcases the risks associated with economic and political fragmentation, and provides a preview of what awaits an increasingly fractured global economy if this continues

Tug of war of markets: Global downward forces slowing activity in China and Europe

The downward forces acting on worldwide markets are the slowing of activity in China and Europe and the divergent beliefs of the Fed and markets when it comes to the Reserve’s rate hikes

Years of insufficiently inclusive growth has given appeal to unorthodox policy approaches

The appeal of unorthodox policy approaches is the result of years of insufficiently inclusive growth, coupled with mounting concerns about income, wealth and opportunity

Central banks no longer cushion markets

Draghi emphasised the implicit message that neither governments nor markets can continue to rely on regular, large and predictable liquidity injections to offset their own problems

Developing countries may not be able to count on some of their basic assumptions about international trade

Developing countries may not be able to count on some of their basic assumptions about international trade, besides having to deal with currency, capital flow and interest rate changes.

international trade, Developing countries, capital flow, International Monetary Fund, opinion

Global finance: Lessons from the global financial crisis

The market structure that emerged from the financial crisis involves significantly larger institutions, particularly US-based ones

A Reagan moment for international trade

The US, being generally more economically resilient than other countries, would do better than most others in a contracting world economy.

Four lessons from Egypt’s World Cup exit

Greater efforts are needed to seize international opportunities for human-capital development

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