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Jeffrey Frankel

Articles By Jeffrey Frankel

24 Articles

The dark heart of gold! Returning to a gold-based monetary system is a terrible idea

Returning to a gold-based monetary system is a terrible idea. Even if low and stable inflation were the only objective, the gold standard did not deliver that

Three explanations for the elevated gold price—related to US monetary policy, risk, and investors’ growing desire for a safe-haven alternative to the dollar—have been offered.

Pandemic pain of emerging markets

The emerging and developing markets are likely to suffer more due to some countries’ negligent leadership

What’s in a recession? The lens through which one looks at the business cycle can make a big difference over time

A major disadvantage, however, is that insofar as GDP statistics are subject to subsequent revision, they may require a retroactive revision of the cyclical turning points.

Most other advanced economies, after all, define a recession as simply two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

How to avoid a W-shaped recession

Policymakers everywhere should remember a simple rule of thumb: to avoid a W-shaped recession, let “W” stand for premature “withdrawal” of public-health or economic-stimulus measures.

Economic activity might even get an extra boost, as consumers released pent-up demand.

Explained: Why it is time for German fiscal expansion

Slower income growth will depress tax receipts, and thus, reduce Germany’s budget surplus. But, the authorities should certainly not take steps to preserve the surplus

German fiscal expansion, germany economy, GDP, black zero policy, Europe, global financial crisis, Fiscal policy, German GDP growth

Trade wars: The real cost of Trump’s tariffs

Trump seems unfazed by the possible long-term effects of a protracted trade war: a decoupling of the Chinese and American economies, and a loss of gains from trade

Trade wars, US trade war, donald trump, trump administration, china, US trade policy, US tariffs, China, global economy, Chinese goods 

Explained: Why monetary policy cannot curb trade ones

Skillful monetary policy can help offset a negative demand shock, but can do little or nothing to offset a supply shock caused by adverse trade developments.

Settling for the less: The new and not improved NAFTA

This is Trump’s modus operandi: Threaten to do something catastrophic, so people are relieved when things get a little bit worse.

Currency manipulator? Trump’s currency confusion continues

Trump thinks his tariff war will improve the US trade balance, but does not understand that if foreign exporters are cut off from the US market, they will not have the dollars to buy US goods.

The depth of the next US recession

As we approach the tenth anniversary of the global financial crisis, we should recall how we got there. In 2003-07, the US government pursued fiscal expansion and financial deregulation—an approach that, even at the time, w

Historical Precedent: The Republican party’s protectionist pedigree

President Donald Trump’s aggressive approach to trade, which was on stark display at last week’s G7 summit in Quebec, has elicited widespread derision. Critics point out that his tariffs hurt the domestic economy while un

Republican party, Donald Trump, Quebec, tariff

An economic platform for US Democrats

Democrats could raise government revenue further by implementing a carbon tax—an approach that would also have environmental benefits.

us democrats, donald trump, trump election

Why China won’t yield to Donald Trump

China, the ‘surplus’ country in the trade war has accumulated financial claims against its “opponent”.

china trade war, china, us trade war, donald trump, US, US china trade war, trade war news, worldfree4u trade, what is trade war

The big economic message from markets

Another popular response to the recent correction has been to complain that the market has been made more volatile, because trading is increasingly carried out by machines, rather than humans. True, if a computer is programme

economy, stock markets, United states markets

Macro question: Does trade fuel inequality?

Multiple factors, including urbanisation, high savings rates, and improved access to education, undoubtedly underlie these countries’ impressive performance.

Macro question, fuel inequality, China, India, GDP, Donald Trump, globalisation 

Reagan’s tax reforms revisited

The US has plenty of experience with irresponsible tax cuts. Yet its leaders seem not to have learned their lesson. Should Republicans secure the legislative victory they so desire, the entire country—with the exception, pe

tax reform, reagan tax reform, donald trump, US tax bill

Rules too onerous, but here’s how to renegotiate NAFTA

US president donald Trump’s administration says that it is sticking with its campaign promise to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Making crises great again

Debates about financial regulation tend to focus on quantity, not quality. But “more versus less” isn’t so much the issue; the details are.

Donald Trump, Stock, European Stock, Germany's DAX, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Republican, Paul Christopher, Dollar

Demonetisation in India was abrupt and secretive, find out how

India’s rapid demonetisation has obviously fallen short, because it was unnecessarily abrupt and secretive

The domestic threat to US leadership

What is clear is that US politics, not global developments, will be the main determinant

BARACK OBAMA CRIES

Column: Reckoning with inequality

Voting for candidates who will enact the right policies is a far more direct strategy for addressing inequality

Column: Reckoning with inequality

Column: Who’s right on US financial reform?

Republicans mostly undermined the US’s financial regulatory-reform law but have not paid any political price for it

Column: Who’s right on US financial reform?

Column: China’s stock-market red herring

Land and labour law flexibility, and a host of other reforms, will determine the country’s fate, not its stock market

china stock market

Column: A fair, efficient, and feasible climate agreement

The Paris accord was a reasonable outcome in a difficult situation

Column: A fair, efficient, and feasible climate agreement
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