Jamal Mecklai

Articles By Jamal Mecklai

87 Articles

Monetary tightening – more to come

In particular, as already explained, global borrowing costs are set to go up, as a result of which this week’s monetary action by RBI is likely to be merely a beginning.

interest rate hike, Monetary tightening, government bonds, repo rate hike News

RBI shows who’s the boss

Since 2013, the rupee has fallen as sharply as it has recently twice, and both times, the rupee returned to a steady state within weeks

RBI, FX policy, NDF market, indian rupee, Raghuram Rajan, US interest rates, US equities News

Is the rupee headed to a 68 to a dollar?

One way to balance out risks is to simply recognises the obvious fact that if you hedge, you are paying premium, and every day you don’t hedge, you are saving money

indian rupee, FX risks, import cost, Mecklai Hedge Programme , dollar, MHP News

How a 100% hedge would produce a better return

Increasingly, even companies who have business contracts of shorter horizons, but who have longstanding customer relationships, so they are able to estimate their sales into the future, are looking to shift their risk horizon

hedging, LOU, FC debt News

The march of a new party: AAP is making strides in Madhya Pradesh

That the people are fed up with the BJP is obvious, not just locally, where there has been no meaningful development, but nationally as well, where in its desperation, the party seems to be ever more aggressively trying to sh

 new party, AAP, Madhya Pradesh News

Privacy doesn’t exist in a global village

Technology, by its very nature, simply keeps evolving. Existing structures that sustain themselves on control of information will steadily dwindle—open source is the imminent future.

technology, global village News

Rupee’s tightrope walk: There is increase dollar demand – Know why

There is increased dollar demand, on the one side, and RBI’s obeisance to volatility control, on the other.

rupee, dollar, rupee against dollar, economy News

How markets are seeing a shift in sentiment

Over the past couple of years, the market has been in a mood to take all news as good news. Today, it may well be the reverse

US equity markets, Dow Jones, US stocks, Nirav Modi scam, Sensex, donald trump, US Congress, employment rate News

Why #MeToo is just the beginning

Love and joy, more than money and power, will be the most valuable tradables in the new world

MeToo, commercial markets, Steve Bannon, Vandana Shiva, Gauri Lankesh, Pink Chaddi campaign, commercial markets, Donald Trump, donald trump election News

Equity Rhapsody: For 7 trading session, markets everywhere have been throwing rocks at investors

For seven trading sessions, markets everywhere have been throwing rocks at investors and nobody can say when it will end.

Equity markets, global, domestic, Equity Rhapsody, trading session, market, investors News

Think about Dollar: If the Fed changes rate more often than anticipated, India could see a bolus of outflows

There are many analysts who are saying (hoping) that the Fed will not raise rates three times in 2018, as it has said it will. If it does raise rates more sharply and/or more often—given the US economy is as close to full e

Dollar, Fed rates, India, dollar index, FX traders, dollar, rupee, DXY News

Indian rupee in 2018: Jamal Mecklai says currency to be valued in 61.5-70 range to US dollar

There will be higher rupee volatility than what prevailed in 2017—it will be valued within the range of 61.5-70 to the dollar.

rupee, indian rupee, indian rupee in 2018, rupee in 2018, jamal mecklai, indian currency, currency value, currency strength, rupee value, rupee strength News

Why you should not invest in bitcoins, explains Jamal Mecklai

Clearly, shorting bitcoin is a BIG no-no. What about going long? Well, in my view, the risk, while again limited to your investment, is huge and, again, unmeasurable. With each passing day, technology is becoming less and les

Bitcoins, Jamal Mecklai News

Rupee downward turn trigger may be a global equity collapse early next year; Jamal Mecklai explains

The rupee’s downward turn would be triggered by some major global conflagration, possibly a global equity collapse early next year.

Rupee, Rupee downward turn, Rupee down, global equity, global equity collapse, Jamal Mecklai, FX risks, economy News

Why RBI must target unhedged ECBs; Jamal Mecklai explains

Many years ago, when the rupee was constantly under threat to weaken, RBI often railed against speculators and, indeed, acted from time to time, for instance prohibiting domestic companies from rebooking cancelled forward con

RBI, Jamal Mecklai, ECB, FX asset, FX liability, ECB users, dollar, market News

Towards a wonderful world; Jamal Mecklai explains why nationalism has shot its load

With both the populist right and the populist left becoming less relevant, a new consensus is now certain, likely led by Europe

Towards a wonderful world; Jamal Mecklai explains why nationalism has shot its load

Political parties are vessels of corruption, but changes in offing, says Jamal Mecklai

The deplorable state of politics globally suggests that a structural change is in the offing—it is always darkest before dawn.

Politics, political parties, Indian politics, vessels of corruption, Political corruption, corruption in politics, Jamal Mecklai News

Rupee rise: Why companies should avoid histrionics of price forecasters

When I was a child, I read a famous story about Chicken Little, a little chicken who was wandering around the farmyard one day when an acorn fell on his head.

rupee, rupee rise, price forecast, companies avoid price forecasters, price forecasters News

Here is what could unleash dogs of war in financial markets; Jamal Mecklai explains

If the Dodd-Frank separation of trading from lending is emasculated, it could unleash the dogs of war in the financial markets

financial markets, Jamal Mecklai News

Making India great again: A satirical take on what PM Narendra Modi should talk about on Mann Ki Baat

As an USA (Unofficial Self-appointed Advisor) to the prime minister, I have prepared this speech on the subject of Making India Great Again for next week’s Mann Ki Baat.

mann ki baat, modi mann ki baat, pm narendra modi, modi, narendra modi, modi news, modi mann ki baat, financial express News

Making America great again; here is a satirical take on Donald Trump

A satirical take on what US president Donald Trump should be talking about, and doing.

Opinion News

Markets: Here is why what can really end up costing money

Although rupee’s steady to strong behaviour is reducing costs every day, the fear that it may suddenly fall increases the longer it remains steady.

Markets: Here is why what can really end up costing money

Equity disconnect?

There appears to be a serious disconnect between the Indian equity market, which has gained 35% in the last 15 months and the mood on the ground.  This is quite different from the last equity rally, right after Modi’s Lok

equity market, indian equity market, market news, bse, indian markets News

We are on the cusp of a real acceleration of the European project; Jamal Mecklai explain how

The “greed is good” desecration of the American dream, which began accelerating since the early 1980’s, has ended—Wham! Bam!—with the election of Donald Trump as president.

Opinion News

Why RBI must permit PDS, mutual funds, insurers, others to directly access forex market

RBI is finding its hands tied on intervention because of the extraordinary overhang of rupee liquidity courtesy demonetisation.

RBI, Jammu, ombudsman office, New Delhi, Chhattisgarh, New Delhi-I News

Hedging rupee’s value: Companies must move beyond simple strategies, says Jamal Mecklai

On hedging for the rupee’s value, companies must move beyond simple ladder-type strategies towards more sophisticated programmes.

Opinion News

Corporate India must fix its FX risk management operations, says Jamal Mecklai

Many—perhaps, most—companies in India consistently leave a lot of money on the table through increased import costs and/or lower export realisations because of weak FX risk management processes.

Opinion News