Jamal Mecklai
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Flirting with danger: If the rupee touches 73 again, RBI should push the off-meeting button
If the rupee touches 73 again, RBI should push the off-meeting button—rather than creating panic as had been feared, this will signal that RBI is engaged and recognises the `trauma’.
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Falling Rupee: How to ease importers’ trauma
Learning from the market is very expensive; but not learning from the market can be disastrous
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Exchange risk: Expert advice for companies which use ladder strategy
Many companies use a ladder strategy, which means the near term is hedged (close to 100%) with reducing hedge percentages as you go out in tenor.
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Is the USD ready to turn lower?
The trade war rhetoric may result in the dollar weakening to address Trump’s focus on bilateral trade deficits and there is talk about the US Treasury intervening in currency markets for the first time since 1985.
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Staring at another crisis: There is increasing nervousness about inflation that Trump’s trade wars could exacerbate
It is the nature of the beast that we use events—like the day you were born—to define nodal points, even though the actual starting point was likely much earlier, when your mother and father met, for instance.
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The (un)Sacred Games of lynchings
It is blindingly obvious that there is nobody in charge, or that those in charge really don’t give a shit, or that local hoodlums persist in such activities because they are encouraged by those in charge.
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The run on rupee may be ending
Total portfolio outflows from India since May this year were a huge $9.5 billion, and given that Indian interest rates remain reasonably attractive, it is hard to see outflows accelerating from this level.
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A turning point in upon us – Technology will drive decentralisation
A turning point is upon us—technology will drive decentralisation and the sharing of assets and experiences, as will the vast armies of people who are working towards a shared future.
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Monetary tightening – more to come
In particular, as already explained, global borrowing costs are set to go up, as a result of which this week’s monetary action by RBI is likely to be merely a beginning.
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RBI shows who’s the boss
Since 2013, the rupee has fallen as sharply as it has recently twice, and both times, the rupee returned to a steady state within weeks
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Is the rupee headed to a 68 to a dollar?
One way to balance out risks is to simply recognises the obvious fact that if you hedge, you are paying premium, and every day you don’t hedge, you are saving money
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How a 100% hedge would produce a better return
Increasingly, even companies who have business contracts of shorter horizons, but who have longstanding customer relationships, so they are able to estimate their sales into the future, are looking to shift their risk horizons to more than 12 months.
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The march of a new party: AAP is making strides in Madhya Pradesh
That the people are fed up with the BJP is obvious, not just locally, where there has been no meaningful development, but nationally as well, where in its desperation, the party seems to be ever more aggressively trying to shred the fabric of the nation.
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Privacy doesn’t exist in a global village
Technology, by its very nature, simply keeps evolving. Existing structures that sustain themselves on control of information will steadily dwindle—open source is the imminent future.
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Rupee’s tightrope walk: There is increase dollar demand – Know why
There is increased dollar demand, on the one side, and RBI’s obeisance to volatility control, on the other.
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How markets are seeing a shift in sentiment
Over the past couple of years, the market has been in a mood to take all news as good news. Today, it may well be the reverse
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Why #MeToo is just the beginning
Love and joy, more than money and power, will be the most valuable tradables in the new world
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Equity Rhapsody: For 7 trading session, markets everywhere have been throwing rocks at investors
For seven trading sessions, markets everywhere have been throwing rocks at investors and nobody can say when it will end.
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Think about Dollar: If the Fed changes rate more often than anticipated, India could see a bolus of outflows
There are many analysts who are saying (hoping) that the Fed will not raise rates three times in 2018, as it has said it will. If it does raise rates more sharply and/or more often—given the US economy is as close to full employment as it can get—once the inflation pony turns into a horse, look out!
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Indian rupee in 2018: Jamal Mecklai says currency to be valued in 61.5-70 range to US dollar
There will be higher rupee volatility than what prevailed in 2017—it will be valued within the range of 61.5-70 to the dollar.
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Why you should not invest in bitcoins, explains Jamal Mecklai
Clearly, shorting bitcoin is a BIG no-no. What about going long? Well, in my view, the risk, while again limited to your investment, is huge and, again, unmeasurable. With each passing day, technology is becoming less and less secure
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Rupee downward turn trigger may be a global equity collapse early next year; Jamal Mecklai explains
The rupee’s downward turn would be triggered by some major global conflagration, possibly a global equity collapse early next year.
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Why RBI must target unhedged ECBs; Jamal Mecklai explains
Many years ago, when the rupee was constantly under threat to weaken, RBI often railed against speculators and, indeed, acted from time to time, for instance prohibiting domestic companies from rebooking cancelled forward contracts, since it was clear that some companies were—rather than managing their risk—simply speculating by buying (booking forward against imports) and selling (cancelling) dollars.
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Towards a wonderful world; Jamal Mecklai explains why nationalism has shot its load
With both the populist right and the populist left becoming less relevant, a new consensus is now certain, likely led by Europe
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Political parties are vessels of corruption, but changes in offing, says Jamal Mecklai
The deplorable state of politics globally suggests that a structural change is in the offing—it is always darkest before dawn.
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Rupee rise: Why companies should avoid histrionics of price forecasters
When I was a child, I read a famous story about Chicken Little, a little chicken who was wandering around the farmyard one day when an acorn fell on his head.
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Here is what could unleash dogs of war in financial markets; Jamal Mecklai explains
If the Dodd-Frank separation of trading from lending is emasculated, it could unleash the dogs of war in the financial markets
