Jamal Mecklai

How a 100% hedge would produce a better return

Increasingly, even companies who have business contracts of shorter horizons, but who have longstanding customer relationships, so they are able to estimate their sales into the future, are looking to shift their risk horizons to more than 12 months.
The march of a new party: AAP is making strides in Madhya Pradesh

That the people are fed up with the BJP is obvious, not just locally, where there has been no meaningful development, but nationally as well, where in its desperation, the party seems to be ever more aggressively trying to shred the fabric of the nation.
Privacy doesn’t exist in a global village

Technology, by its very nature, simply keeps evolving. Existing structures that sustain themselves on control of information will steadily dwindle—open source is the imminent future.
Rupee’s tightrope walk: There is increase dollar demand – Know why

There is increased dollar demand, on the one side, and RBI’s obeisance to volatility control, on the other.
How markets are seeing a shift in sentiment

Over the past couple of years, the market has been in a mood to take all news as good news. Today, it may well be the reverse
Why #MeToo is just the beginning

Love and joy, more than money and power, will be the most valuable tradables in the new world
Equity Rhapsody: For 7 trading session, markets everywhere have been throwing rocks at investors

For seven trading sessions, markets everywhere have been throwing rocks at investors and nobody can say when it will end.
Think about Dollar: If the Fed changes rate more often than anticipated, India could see a bolus of outflows

There are many analysts who are saying (hoping) that the Fed will not raise rates three times in 2018, as it has said it will. If it does raise rates more sharply and/or more often—given the US economy is as close to full employment as it can get—once the inflation pony turns into a horse, look out!
Indian rupee in 2018: Jamal Mecklai says currency to be valued in 61.5-70 range to US dollar

There will be higher rupee volatility than what prevailed in 2017—it will be valued within the range of 61.5-70 to the dollar.
Why you should not invest in bitcoins, explains Jamal Mecklai

Clearly, shorting bitcoin is a BIG no-no. What about going long? Well, in my view, the risk, while again limited to your investment, is huge and, again, unmeasurable. With each passing day, technology is becoming less and less secure
Rupee downward turn trigger may be a global equity collapse early next year; Jamal Mecklai explains

The rupee’s downward turn would be triggered by some major global conflagration, possibly a global equity collapse early next year.
Why RBI must target unhedged ECBs; Jamal Mecklai explains

Many years ago, when the rupee was constantly under threat to weaken, RBI often railed against speculators and, indeed, acted from time to time, for instance prohibiting domestic companies from rebooking cancelled forward contracts, since it was clear that some companies were—rather than managing their risk—simply speculating by buying (booking forward against imports) and selling (cancelling) dollars.
Towards a wonderful world; Jamal Mecklai explains why nationalism has shot its load

With both the populist right and the populist left becoming less relevant, a new consensus is now certain, likely led by Europe
Political parties are vessels of corruption, but changes in offing, says Jamal Mecklai

The deplorable state of politics globally suggests that a structural change is in the offing—it is always darkest before dawn.
Rupee rise: Why companies should avoid histrionics of price forecasters

When I was a child, I read a famous story about Chicken Little, a little chicken who was wandering around the farmyard one day when an acorn fell on his head.
Here is what could unleash dogs of war in financial markets; Jamal Mecklai explains

If the Dodd-Frank separation of trading from lending is emasculated, it could unleash the dogs of war in the financial markets
Making India great again: A satirical take on what PM Narendra Modi should talk about on Mann Ki Baat

As an USA (Unofficial Self-appointed Advisor) to the prime minister, I have prepared this speech on the subject of Making India Great Again for next week’s Mann Ki Baat.
Making America great again; here is a satirical take on Donald Trump

A satirical take on what US president Donald Trump should be talking about, and doing.
Markets: Here is why what can really end up costing money

Although rupee’s steady to strong behaviour is reducing costs every day, the fear that it may suddenly fall increases the longer it remains steady.
Equity disconnect?

There appears to be a serious disconnect between the Indian equity market, which has gained 35% in the last 15 months and the mood on the ground. This is quite different from the last equity rally, right after Modi’s Lok Sabha victory in 2014, when the market shot 35% higher in just 12 months. At […]
We are on the cusp of a real acceleration of the European project; Jamal Mecklai explain how

The “greed is good” desecration of the American dream, which began accelerating since the early 1980’s, has ended—Wham! Bam!—with the election of Donald Trump as president.
Why RBI must permit PDS, mutual funds, insurers, others to directly access forex market

RBI is finding its hands tied on intervention because of the extraordinary overhang of rupee liquidity courtesy demonetisation.
Hedging rupee’s value: Companies must move beyond simple strategies, says Jamal Mecklai

On hedging for the rupee’s value, companies must move beyond simple ladder-type strategies towards more sophisticated programmes.
Corporate India must fix its FX risk management operations, says Jamal Mecklai

Many—perhaps, most—companies in India consistently leave a lot of money on the table through increased import costs and/or lower export realisations because of weak FX risk management processes.
Markets: Why hot rally after Donald Trump’s victory has petered out

The market knows this, which may be why the hot rally right after Donald Trump’s victory appears to have petered out.
With Donald Trump set to take over Presidency, is US dollar rally over?

Given the huge uncertainty of what Trump wants to do and what he can actually do, it is likely that the Fed will remain sometimes behind and sometimes ahead of the inflation curve. This could prevent any further substantial dollar strength.
Why 2017 will be more volatile than 2016

The most significant event in the Indian FX market in 2016 was RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s surprise decision to demit his office before his term was up.

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