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Anuj Agarwal

Articles By Anuj Agarwal

37 Articles

GDP at -23.9%: Why Bharat may not be able to save the day

In his address at the launch of Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyaan, PM Modi lauded the countrymen saying, “You have effectively prevented Coronavirus from spreading in rural India”. However, it is now spreading fast in rural ar

Patchwork will not revive growth: A well-coordinated package on fiscal, monetary and policy fronts is needed

An increase in repo rate by 50bps won’t really lead us to consume less fruits and vegetables and bring down inflation in the category.

A 2013 RBI research paper shows that rising real interest rates have a negative impact on GDP and investment in the economy.

Good inflation? Current levels provide a conducive environment to increase spending

In a broad sense, with tax cuts, increase in revenue expenditure is assumed to precede and lead to increase in capital expenditure.

Consumption in the area would take a big hit, leading to a lower demand for manufactured goods, and this vicious cycle might spill over to other sectors and industries.

India’s idling growth engine: Measures announced by govt to jump-start economy have not borne any fruit

In a situation of weak sentiments, even a policy intervention like helicopter money can fail, where people might actually be inclined to hoard cash rather than spend it.

The NBFC crisis, which also dented private consumption, with financing companies less willing to lend, isn’t likely to get resolved any time soon.

Reading the clouds: The recent forecast for monsoon in India is a siling lining

A silver lining is the recent forecast for 2019 south-west monsoon. The MET has forecast a near-normal monsoon, and the Skymet has forecast south-west monsoon for 2019 at 93% of LPA. In case these forecasts fail to hold and t

monsoon, monsoon forecast, monesoon forecast in india

Emissions vs Development: India will need much more energy as its people prosper

India will need much more energy as its people prosper. Therefore, given the dependence on coal-fired power and its indispensability to some sectors, steps should be taken to reduce emissions from existing fuels and make powe

Most wanted fuel: Why coal needs to keep burning

Despite the emphasis on renewables, coal remains critical for electricity generation. CEA officials have mentioned that new coal-based generation capacity is essential for increased base-load demand and grid stabilisation. Th

coal, diesel prices, Piyush Goyal, CEA, Coal India Ltd, coal imports, fossil fuel, power generation

Almost 30% of the core inflation relatively ineffective to RBI monetary policy; consumer still end up paying more

Barring food and fuel, some categories of the core CPI basket may not be responsive to RBI policy. Certain categories within core inflation seem to have dominance of supply-side factors. Demand in such categories is relativel

Shipping industry faces several constraints on complying with IMO’s regulation on sulphur bunker fuel oil usage

The shipping industry faces several constraints on complying with IMO’s regulation on sulphur bunker fuel oil usage.

Is the aam aadmi riding the NaMo wave? Modi government gets quite a good amount of our attention span

People decide based on their perceptions of gains and losses, rather than actual final outcomes. During next year’s elections, it’s likely that a major chunk of the population will decide whom to vote on the basis of how

narendra modi, namo, aam aadmi party, arvind kejriwal, BJP, 2019 elections

Why RBI must not lose its focus from inflation, and pursue an independent monetary policy with flexible exchange rate

A few months ago, many on the street were in favour of a weak rupee. Even former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian had said that the rupee should be allowed to depreciate as a part of the adjusting mechanism.

Digital boost: Reduction in GST, licence fees and SUC to provide respite to telecom sector

Reduction in levies such as GST, licence fees and SUC will provide some respite to telecom sector

GST,  licence fees, NDCP 2018, ICT Development Index, digital communications sector, Indian mobile industry

This is not the last upswing in oil prices; India has to make its demand for oil more elastic. Here’s why.

India imported 1.7 billion barrels of crude in the last fiscal, worth $88 billion, when the average price of Indian basket of crude was about $52 a barrel.

Is the UAE moving away from oil?

Oil contributes around 35% to the UAE government revenues. Had it not been for the revenues from oil, fiscal deficit would have ballooned to 10.2% of GDP in 2017 from 0.2%.

Petrol, Diesel Prices: Let invincible hand do its job

Sustainable reduction in fuel prices will come when currency & global oil prices move in our favour. This doesn’t seem too distant

petrol, diesel, prices, hike, crude, rupee, पेट्रोल, डीजल, ेट्रोल और डीजल की कीमतों में तेजी

Fossil fuel market due for overhaul

Outlook for fossil fuels is tough to comprehend, but as long as they can be made cleaner, it seems they are here to stay.

A sustainable switch to renewables

While the push towards cleaner renewable sources is appreciable, it should not be at the cost of making energy expensive and unreliable. The overall footprint of fossil fuels—such as coal and oil—at the moment is quite lo

renewable, renewable energy

Skill India and Make In India: Making the most of India’s structural change

The best way forward would be to align “Skill India” and “Make-in-India” with a focus on our comparative advantage. A single-minded pursuit of increasing India’s manufacturing base might not yield the best results.

skill india, manufacturing sector

Why RBI has been overestimating future inflation

Household inflation expectations have remained anchored in the sense that they haven’t been impacted much by transitory shocks.

RBI, future inflation, household inflation

Measures to ease traffic: How Centre, State govt can ease freight movement

While the central government is promoting alternative and multi-modal means of transport, these will take some time to get implemented. In the interim, state governments and municipalities must undertake quick-fix measures to

Measures to ease traffic, traffic jam, traffic jam in india, Centra; government, State govt, freight movement

Despite all the hype, Budget 2018 was just another missed opportunity for the education sector

Budget 2018: The finance minister, in his Union Budget 2018 speech, mentioned “education” the most number of times (to be precise, 29 times), amongst other buzzwords like agriculture (26 times) and health (21 times). Howe

Budget 2018: Arun Jaitley presented Union Budget on Feb 1

Farmers and fertiliser spend: How to make nutrient-based subsidy a success

The NSSO 70th round survey estimates there are 156 million rural households in India, of which 57.8% are agricultural.

farmer education, why education needed for farmers, how can farmers avail nutrient based subsidy, what is nutrient based subsidy

Clear energy policy a must before a clean one; Ad hoc moves will not lead India anywhere

Last year, India joined the Paris Agreement to tackle climate change. India accounts for 4.1% of global emissions, and the country opted for increased use of clean and green energy to reduce its emissions relative to GDP, rat

Growth rate in India: Time for reality check on achhe din

India’s growth has been lopsided driven by government and private spending. Private sector investment hasn’t recovered sustainably for two years. Jump-starting the economy through financing growth is also not possible whe

achhe din, where is achhe din, growth rate in india, demonetisation impact

RBI is an overcautious central bank; here is why it can hurt growth

A sharp fall in both retail and wholesale inflation has raised the stakes for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its next monetary policy review.

RBI monetary policy, retail infltion, wholesale inflation, rate cut, Reserve Bank of India, RBI

Time right for Urjit Patel led RBI to cut interest rates; here’s why

RBI’s neutral stance in its latest monetary policy statement has been primarily driven by its long standing argument of “stickiness of core inflation”

Farm incomes and rural consumption: It will take time to rev-up the rural economy

Just when the rural sector was showing signs of revival, partial withdrawal of old currency notes in November last year created a dent in rural demand.

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