The MPC meeting in early August faces uncertainty from West Asia tensions, rising inflation, and El Nino impacts. A cautious…
The MPC can be reasonably expected to pause rate action through FY24 while maintaining the policy stance over the next…
The hawkish tone of the policy documents portends that if inflation does not fall in line with the MPC’s assessment…
The MPC’s February 2023 repo rate decision should be driven by the domestic inflation-growth dynamics
Growth momentum to pick up Premium Story
The pace of capex can be expected to improve in the second half of the year
A shift in preferences in consumption of services will likely constrain growth in goods for most of the year
If the GoI reverts to the earlier practice of releasing 7.1% of the budgeted tax devolution (Rs 8.2 trillion) to…
The MPC shaved its GDP growth projections for FY23 from 7.8% to 7.2%, in line with our estimate for this…
As base effect wanes, inflation to harden to an uncomfortable 5.5-6% in December-March FY22, close to upper end of MPC’s…
It is unclear how much of the rise in guarantees in the current year is related to non-revenue generating projects,…
An extension of GST compensation beyond the original five-year period would be prudent, to avoid a structural shock to state…
At existing levels, devolution of nearly a third of the taxes budgeted for FY22 would get pushed to March 2022,…
We expect the CPI inflation to recede below the upper-end of the MPC’s target range of 6%, only in December,…
With an unrelenting trajectory of core inflation ahead, MPC’s primary inflation-fighting mandate suggests a likely pause in both the upcoming…
A rate-cut may not be likely before December 2020, even though the MPC has signalled an accommodative stance.
FY21 may see a de-growth of 5%. The downtrend in growth between FY17 and FY20 suggests that India’s potential growth…
Budget 2020 India: The government’s projected receipts from disinvestment have been scaled up significantly to Rs 2.1 lakh crore.
Budget 2020 India: The GoI’s FY21 expenditure and fiscal deficit projections should adequately reflect the amount required for the NIP…
