Aditi Nayar

Articles By Aditi Nayar

16 Articles

GST Compensation: State govts staring at a fiscal cliff

An extension of GST compensation beyond the original five-year period would be prudent, to avoid a structural shock to state finances

In FY2022, GST compensation is planned to be funded in a similar fashion; Rs 1.0 lakh crore through the GST compensation cess to be garnered in FY2022, and Rs 1.58 lakh crore through back-to-back loans to be raised by the GoI.

State Finances: A case for increasing monthly tax devolution to states

At existing levels, devolution of nearly a third of the taxes budgeted for FY22 would get pushed to March 2022, which is inefficient from a cash-flow perspective for states

The CTD was further lowered to Rs 37,200 crore during October-January FY21 (4.7% of the budgeted CTD).

High inflation rules out rate easing

We expect the CPI inflation to recede below the upper-end of the MPC’s target range of 6%, only in December, and average a substantial 5.3% in Q4 FY21

According to the statement, inflation based on the food index of CPI-AL and CPI-RL is at (+) 2.97 per cent and (+) 2.96 per cent, respectively, in December 2020.

MPC’s primary inflation-fighting mandate suggests likely pause in upcoming policy reviews

With an unrelenting trajectory of core inflation ahead, MPC’s primary inflation-fighting mandate suggests a likely pause in both the upcoming policy review as well as the next, despite the prevailing accommodative stance

The National Statistical Office has pegged the pace of GDP contraction in that quarter at a distressing, albeit unsurprising, 23.9%.

Why RBI rate-cut may not happen before December 2020

A rate-cut may not be likely before December 2020, even though the MPC has signalled an accommodative stance.

Recession’s here, downside risks abound – FY21 may see a de-growth of 5%

FY21 may see a de-growth of 5%. The downtrend in growth between FY17 and FY20 suggests that India’s potential growth itself has likely whittled down to 5.0-5.5%.

Budget 2020: An immediate demand revival is unlikely

Budget 2020 India: The government’s projected receipts from disinvestment have been scaled up significantly to Rs 2.1 lakh crore.

Moreover, there are concerns on the achievability of the fiscal deficit target of FY2021, given the somewhat aggressive revenue assumptions.

Budget 2020: Why FM Sitharaman should prioritise infrastructure spending

Budget 2020 India: The GoI’s FY21 expenditure and fiscal deficit projections should adequately reflect the amount required for the NIP for the market to consider them credible.

Budget 2020-21: Accordingly, the GoI is now likely to consider a significantly wider fiscal deficit for FY21, compared to the rolling target of 3% of GDP.

Cautious MPC surprises with a pause on rate cut

Contrary to market expectations, the committee chose to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.15% in today’s policy, given the prevailing uncertainty regarding growth-inflation dynamics, including the measures to support econom

MPC, CPI inflation, inflationary risks, GDP growth, CPI inflation forecasts, GDP forecast for FY20

Interest rates: There’s room for a 25 bps cut

The efficacy of incremental rate cuts in rapidly instigating a turnaround in economic growth remains uncertain, given continuing structural constraints.

Fourth consecutive repo rate cut expected in August MPC review

Fourth consecutive repo rate cut expected in August MPC review

inflation in india, what is inflation, consumer price index india, consumer price index formula, india inflation, consumer price index, food price inflation, producer price index, india economy

Monetary Policy: Reserve Bank may hold rates in December review

Q3FY19 CPI inflation May lag MPC’s estimate, but a rate cut is ruled out given the change in stance to calibrated tightening & the high Oct ‘18 core-CPI print.

RBI Monetary Policy Review: RBI to hike rates. And, why this festival season may be muted for consumers

Crude oil prices have displayed a rather volatile trend in 2018, driven by geopolitical risks and the balance of supply-demand inventories in various parts of the world.

Rbi, Rbi monetray policy, RBI Monetary Policy Review, RBI to hike rates, festival season, opinion news

Economic Survey 2017-18: Recovery taking shape, but growth still below potential

Economic Survey 2018: Building in a rebound in H2, it has pegged the GDP growth for 2017-18 at around 6.75%, higher than the CSO’s advance estimate of 6.5%, but at the lower end of the range of 6.75-7.5% that had been forec

economic survey 2018, budget 2018, union budget 2018, GDP, inflation

Union Budget 2017: Economic Survey is pragmatic, prudent despite consternation with rating agencies

The Economic Survey is a comprehensive and insightful document that takes weeks to prepare and days to absorb. Nevertheless, my very quick take on the Survey for 2016-17 is as follows.

Union Budget

Budget 2016: 3-pronged economic challenges for FM Arun Jaitley

Fiscal consolidation, enhancing capital spending and revising pay scales pose a three-pronged challenge to the economy.

Income Tax Calculator, Budget 2019, How to Calculate Income Tax


Stock Market