For sure, the UPA will be looking heavenwards in gratitude after reading about the near-normal forecast for the southwest monsoon this year. Drought will not push prices higher still, is the hope. A good kharif crop and falling global price pressure may make late 2008/early 2009?s price situation less grim. The one thing the UPA isn?t too worried about, although any government should be, is that the forecast business in India remains a sarkari monopoly, with all its attendant weaknesses. True, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has promised, from this year, seasonal forecasts for India?s four different geographical regions. These will be available when the IMD updates its forecast in June. A continent-sized country like India cannot just have a one-prediction-fits-all monsoon forecast. But this admirable attempt at product variation by the IMD doesn?t address the basic question?is the IMD good enough in the absence of competition? Our Met has been horribly wrong in the recent past. Last year?s April forecast had predicted a shortfall, but the monsoon exceeded average rainfall by 5%. The IMD has over 100 years of experience, but it is only lately that it has become responsive to new technology. Why not break the monopoly and give us more choice and better quality?
In most developed countries, weather forecasting is done by three agencies: the government service provider, academic institutions and the private sector that includes both weather forecasting companies and consultants. Information gathered by the public service provider is made freely available in a user-friendly format to the private sector, which prepares intricately detailed forecasts that are finely tailored to suit the needs of different businesses in different regions. The public forecaster and academic specialists restrict their role to general forecasts and hazard warnings. Here, the IMD has chosen to keep out the private sector from such value-added work. But the market is fighting back. Some companies are setting up private weather forecasting cells and collating weather information to provide new services like weather insurance for air travellers. And the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting is planning a public-private partnership to provide venue-specific weather forecast in real time for the Commonwealth games. If this works, the IMD?s quasi-monopoly status will have a storm to live through. And a good one at that.