Over the past four quarters, Siemens India revenues have averaged 78% (range of 70%-83%) of the India top line reported by the parent company. Assuming the historical average is maintained in December quarter, the implied revenue of Rs 25.7 billion (up 37% YoY) is tracking well ahead of the consensus estimate of Rs 22.6 billion (implying 21% YoY growth). Similarly, historical order inflows reported by Siemens India have been about 50-70% of total India inflow in a quarter. Assuming the lower end of the range holds, Siemens India inflows could stand at about Rs 36 billion (20% ahead of our estimate of Rs 30 billion for Dec-quarter). We expect Siemens Indias stock to react positively to healthy signs from the parent Dec-q results.
All regions delivered order inflow growth in Q1 (September year-end), led by Asia & Australia (+41% YoY excluding currency translation) and Americas (+11%). Inflow growth in the remaining geographies (Europe, CIS, Africa, ME) was 6%.
Miscellaneous takeaways from parent results: (1) Energy: (i) the focus in fossil power is in gas/combined cycle; (ii) margin pressure was high in the Transmission segment, particularly in China. Although pricing pressure in the orders was said to be easing, sourcing costs are up; (iii) within Wind, Siemens AG continues to see pricing pressure in onshore and a decent market in offshore; (2) Industry: Siemens AG management said that underlying margins in Industry are at peak levels; (3) Healthcare: the segment continued to see strong growth in emerging markets but was impacted in Europe by government austerity measures.