Here are two things we learned [on Tuesday]. First, Barack Obama is going to almost certainly be the Democratic nominee. He?s withstood seven weeks of bad news and he still exceeded expectations.
The second thing we learned is that this general election is going to look nothing like the last two. Those elections were base mobilization elections. The candidates did little to upset party orthodoxy or move dramatically toward the center. That won?t work this time. The extended primary season has changed the profile of Obama supporters. Back in Iowa, he seemed to gather post-partisan and bipartisan support. He was strong among independents. But if you look at the exit polls from [Tuesday] night and from the recent primaries, one thing leaps out at you: the further left you go, the more support Obama gets. The more centrist a voter is, the less likely he or she is to support him. Once upon a time, Obama had strong support from wide swathes of very religious people. Now he has wide swathes of support among secular voters.
Obama has a much more liberal profile than he did several weeks ago. Moderate, independent voters are now less sure that Obama shares their values. Hillary Clinton voters are much, much more hostile toward him. His supporters look more and more like the McGovern-Dukakis constituency….
Republicans are going to take a look at Obama?s liberal profile and they?re going to be tempted to run a traditional right versus left campaign. They know how to beat Dukakis-McGovern candidates.
That would be a big mistake. Traditional Republicans can beat liberal Democrats when the Republican brand is in healthy shape. That is not the case now.
Campaign Stops
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