To identify the driving factors, we decompose the emission growth into fuel switching, modal shifting, per capita economic growth, population growth and changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach. We find that population growth, per capita economic growth and change in transportation energy intensity are generally found to be principal drivers of transport sector CO2 emission growth in Asian countries, whereas fuel switching, modal shifting and change in emission coefficients are not found to have a sizeable influence on the growth of transport sector CO2 emissions. The per capita economic growth effect and the population growth effect are found to be primarily responsible for driving transport sector CO2 emissions growth over the study horizon in all countries, except Mongolia. The transportation energy intensity effect is found to be the main driver of the reduction of CO2 emissions in Mongolia. However, improvement in transportation energy intensity is also found to restrain the growth of transport sector CO2 emissions in some countries, significantly in China and India.
*GR Timilsina and A Shrestha, Why Have CO2 Emissions Increased in the Transport Sector in Asia Policy Research Working Paper 5098, The World Bank, September 2009