Opec sees Indias oil supply at 30 tb/d in 2009

Written by Sanjay Jog | Mumbai | Updated: Jan 21 2009, 04:55am hrs
Indias oil supply is now projected to increase by around 30 tb/d in 2009 over the current 2008 level supported by the expected startup of the Mangala project, according to the latest report by Opec.

This is quite crucial as Opec has revealed that demand growth in 2009 is expected to contract by 0.2 mb/d following negative growth of 0.1 mb/d in 2008, the first decline in over two decades. Indeed, in quarterly terms, the consecutive negative growth seen in the second half of 2008 is expected to continue in the first two quarters of 2009.This is well below the continuous positive growth seen in previous years. Taken together, the net decline is expected to reach 2.5 mb/d in the first half of this year, providing a clear indication of the erosion in demand.

The report said Indias crude oil imports for the first 11 months of 2008 averaged about 2.57 mb/d, an increase of 7.4% or 177,000 b/d over the same period 2007, supported by strong domestic fuel sales throughout the year, which increased by 2% in November compared to a year earlier. Higher crude oil imports in 2008 are also contributed to higher overseas purchases by export-oriented Essar Oil and Reliance Industries.

As far as exports are concerned, for the first 11 months in 2008, India exported 40% more fuel oil than the same period a year earlier. Jet fuel exports were at 87,000 b/d in November, 14% higher compared to the previous month. Gasoil exports in November averaged 303,000 b/d, an increase of 25% over the previous month. While in first 11 months of 2008, India exported an average of 270,000 b/d gasoil, steady compared to the same period a year earlier.

Indias crude oil imports in November declined by 274,000 b/d or 10.2% compared to the previous month to reach about 2.41 mb/d, indicating a y-o-y increase of 7.9% compared to the same month of the previous year. Indias product imports in November declined by 17.9% compared to the previous month to average 0.34 mb/d, about 27% lower compared to the year before. Apart from gasoil, imports of all major products were lower in November compared to the previous month. Gasoil imports in November averaged about 52,000 b/d, almost double the amount in October. This came at a time when gasoil sales in India increased in November by 8.8% on a y-o-y basis compared to 6.3% the previous month. For the first 11 months of 2008, India imported an average of 60,000 b/d of gasoil, some 38% higher than in the same period in the previous year.

India imported an average of 85,000 b/d naphtha in November, about 30% lower than the previous month, and 40% lower than a year earlier.

Average naphtha imports for the first 11 months of 2008 were at 124,000 b/d, about 14% lower than a year earlier. Fuel oil imports in November averaged 27,000 b/d, down from 31,000 b/d in October, while kerosene imports were about 17,000 b/d, down from 24,000 b/d in the previous month. Altogether, India imported an average of 0.41 mb/d in products during the first eleven months of 2008 compared to 0.42 mb/d in the same period of the previous year.